Tactical Transactions: Dynasty Fantasy Football Moves to Make Before Week One
Football is back! The long-awaited debut of the 2022 NFL season is almost here and there is no time too early to get ahead of the transaction curve. As we try to stay ahead of our competition, this series is going to be your place to get the weekly edge on transactions before the rest of the market. Here are five dynasty transactions to make before the season begins:
Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN or Courtland Sutton, WR DEN – Buy
This may seem like I’m hedging my bets on which Broncos wideout will emerge ahead of their current ADP. Sutton checks in at WR25 and Jeudy at WR30 in the latest data set and while the masses reflect that Sutton is the best option, I am willing to be open-minded on that conclusion. Jeudy enters the season with an adjusted career market share of 19.55 percent while Sutton sports a career market of 20.52 percent. Neither reflects a player capable of a high-end season, but Russell Wilson’s efficiency is enough to push both higher amongst their peers and thus, it becomes a great bet that at least one of these players has a good chance at a top 12 season. In 2019, both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf cracked WR1 range.
The Move – Pick your lane and buy one. This is a must-do if you also roster Wilson. Consider paying a 2024 first-round pick (and be willing to throw in a third) and complete the transaction. I do not wish to pay a 2023 first-round pick in superflex leagues and as a hedge against the data above, in any league with both Sutton and Jeudy, I am selling one of them before the season and targeting a 2023 first-round pick.
Mike Williams, WR LAC – Sell
This one will hit many folks right in the stomach. How can I consider selling the potential number one option on one of the best offenses in the league and tied to potentially the NFL’s best quarterback? Trust the process. Williams has been steamed up to WR26 in the latest ADP, the third-highest point of his career behind his rookie slotting and October 2021 when he was posting top-five numbers. His career-adjusted market share is only 17.06 percent, the lowest among all wide receivers in the top 36 with at least two accrued seasons. It does not mean Williams can not produce, afterall, he is tied to Justin Herbert. However, he produced a season ago with a sub-20 percent market share and if he lives up to his current value, you are betting purely on touchdowns and extreme efficiency. Be wary of your exposure on unstacked Herbert teams or rosters where you have excess production at wide receiver.
The Move – Do not get me wrong, I want exposure to Williams. There is a story to be told he is the best option in Los Angeles. I also understand his prototype and production profile to date and the odds he ever moves out of this range, largely propped up by his situation, is extremely low. Translation? Insert many others in his spot and they do what he can. Sell him for a 2023 first-round pick or consider a 2-for-1 trade where you add a lesser wide receiver (think Josh Palmer range) and a 2024 first-round pick. This is a consideration for any teams without Herbert; even contenders.
Samaje Perine, CIN RB – Add
I simply do not understand why this is not obvious. In the most recent ADP, Perine does not even crack the top 91 at the RB position. His teammate Chris Evans is RB67. Rookie Snoop Conner, who we would hope has half the career Perine has to date, is RB77. The bottom line here? Perine is the backup in Cincinnati. He was put on ice in the preseason as Zac Taylor did not play any “significant contributor” at all. Evans on the other hand? He led the team in touches. This is obviously an injury-only situation but with many other pure backups going much higher, get Perine on rosters on “Zero RB” and “Hero RB” builds before the situation becomes obvious.
The Move – I definitely want to buy Perine but I do not want to pay draft picks. I would give up a fourth-round pick but the optics of that trade is difficult to pull off. Instead, identify a wide receiver or tight end who you feel is the same in the range of outcomes and swap them with Perine included in the trade. An example might be Allen Robinson for Brandin Cooks and Perine. This type of trade can mask your true target (Perine) and is the easiest way to acquire players directly without asking for them individually. I want Perine on teams I do not have Joe Mixon.
Feleipe Franks, ATL QB/TE – Add
Talk about a name coming out of nowhere. In fact, I am guessing Franks is available in just about every single league you are in regardless of the format. Now, to be specific, this is only for leagues that require you to start multiple tight ends or the premium is at least 1.75 points per reception. To go even further, leagues that award points per carry with those tight end premiums are preferred. With that said, if you justified keeping Taysom Hill on a roster and liked the emergence of Logan Thomas a few years ago, this is your next candidate. Franks is an elite athlete transitioning to tight end and is on a depth chart only behind Kyle Pitts and with a head coach known for being creative with the tight ends. With Pitts being lined up as a wide receiver, expect Franks to be active on game day and a bigger part of the offense than anyone sees coming. He should have major opportunity in a freelance season for the Falcons to carve out a future role with a team in transition.
The Move – Add Franks in leagues where you start two tight ends, two quarterbacks and with tight end premiums above 1.75. This is a niche add that is a waste of a roster spot outside of these formats. He is currently eligible at quarterback but the team lists him at tight end, making him a 2022 cheat code if his playing time is what I expect it could be. If you are looking for an off-the-wall stash heading into this season, look here and enjoy the ride!
Brevin Jordan, TE HOU – Sell
Nothing has changed since the last recommendation to sell Jordan at the end of the 2021 season except for the fact that the Texans did not invest significant draft capital or free agency resources into the tight end position. Jordan is still an extremely promising devy prospect who entered the league at age 20, slipped in the NFL Draft and had pockets of production last season as a rookie. Many folks have him on the buy list and I am definitely pushing my chips in the other way. Jordan posts a RAS score of 4.53 and measures under 6 foot 3 inches. Historically, this is an extremely bad bet to make if you hope for a top 12 tight end. This #DynastyLeverage video explains more on my research on athletic metrics and tight end production. I am fading Jordan at his current ADP of TE22.
The Move – When scarcity exists, the market will still exist. Any tight end premium league with start one, Jordan is a cash-out. Any second-round pick in a superflex league is an automatic accept. The steam may not be high enough, but any league with start two and significant premium, Jordan may fetch a 2024 first-round pick. Take that and run. Ultimately, there is no format I would not be shopping him and the return will depend on how much demand exists for tight ends in this range. If you cannot get a draft pick, consider a pivot down (with added value) to a historical producer like Tyler Higbee or a similar prototype the community is down on like Jonnu Smith.
Conclusion
Best of luck to everyone as another season is about to begin. I am ready to help you get ahead of the trends each week and cannot wait for the variance and craziness that a brand new NFL season brings!
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
