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Dynasty Fantasy Football: Will These Three Rookies Live Up to Their Preseason Buzz?

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Isiah Pacheco
Bruce Matson Posted On August 27, 2022
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The dynasty landscape is going to be a roller coaster with many ups and downs once the season starts. This has been a very dramatic training camp for some rookies as they’ve managed to gain a lot of ground in dynasty value in just a few weeks. Once the season starts we could see gasoline dumped on their fire or the heat they’ve gained during preseason might fizzle out.

We’ve seen this happen many times before with young prospects. They ball out in training camp along with making some plays in the preseason, but it just doesn’t come together. Then there are other times when the player takes off like a rocket once the season starts.

Isiah Pacheco, RB KC

There’s a lot of buzz circling the Chiefs’ seventh-round pick. On paper, Pacheco has the specs that dynasty managers dream about. He’s a 5-foot-10 and 216-pound running back that runs a 4.37 40-yard dash. His production profile draws some questions considering he has seven 100-yard rushing performances during his four-year career along with a 27th percent college dominator rating. Objectively, you can say he played at Rutgers and the situation there could have factored into his on-field production.

During dynasty rookie draft season, Pacheco was a trendy late-round flier. His athleticism combined with what he can do in the passing game meant there was a lot of upside to tap into. The fact that he was tied to the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes made him an even more lucrative late-round running back prospect to place chips on.

All our dreams came true during training camp. It felt like with every report, Pacheco was climbing up the depth chart. Just about every day, there is a clip of him blowing past the defense, showcasing his size-adjusted speed.

Looking through the DLF’s Dynasty Trade Finder, it’s easy to see that the going rate for Pacheco on the dynasty trade market is a second-round rookie pick. There are multiple trades on the finder for him going for a second-round pick. In one of my home leagues, he got drafted at the 2.08. Of course, there are trades out there where he is being bought/sold for less or even more, but on average a second-round rookie pick seems to be the sweet spot for a lot of people.

I think the best time to strike was a few months ago when he was a cheap option at the end of rookie drafts. Sometimes you have to leave FOMO at your doorstep and follow the fundamentals. Since there’s a major value change, the best thing to do is kick the tires. That goes for whether you want to buy or sell. More than likely, you won’t get a deal done, but there’s a chance that some people will be able to still trade for him on the cheap and there will be some people that will be able to trade him away at an elevated price.

If he’s on your roster, and you can’t get a deal done to capitalize on the value, then it’s okay to sit back and relax to see what happens. There could be other opportunities down the road that will allow you to test the market. Since he gets a lot of buzz on social media and is in a very favorable situation, there’s always a chance to sell on the way down if the worst-case scenario happens.

If you want to invest in Pacheco, you have to be ahead of the market. A lot of dynasty gamers are not going to give him away for a second-round pick anymore. The market is moving quick with Pacheco and even though he was traded for second-round picks a few weeks ago, doesn’t mean the value is still the same now. His value is continuing to increase and it’s going to take more capital to pry him away from his dynasty managers.

There are some dynasty managers who are happy to off-load him for a future second to get the instant return on investment. However, with how the market is moving with him, don’t be surprised if he becomes impossible to trade for.

Jaylen Warren, RB PIT

One of the biggest surprises from training camp is Jaylen Warren. He has taken advantage of every opportunity given to him in training came. There are times when he is working with the first-team offense. He is close to locking up the backup spot behind Najee Harris.

We are looking at a very physical runner who moves well and can catch the ball out of the backfield. He has been targeted seven times in his first two preseason games. The fact that he can hold it down running between the tackles and prove to be a weapon in the passing game indicates that he could provide fantasy production if he ever gets the chance to see a heavier workload.

His stock has been increasing in dynasty during training camp. You are seeing more people mention him on Twitter. His ADP and what he’s being traded for on the market don’t appropriately represent his actual value. Warren is becoming more expensive by the day and for at least the short term will eventually work his way to being one of the most lucrative backup running backs in dynasty.

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Courtesy of DLF’s Dynasty Trade Finder

The sample size isn’t large enough to conclude how the market is valuing him. However, it looks like he’s a good player to use in a package to try to get an upgrade. In some leagues, you might be able to catch him at a discount, since his value has increased and his manager is more than willing to sell for a slight return on investment. Sometimes those players who fundamentally are considered “sells” are actually “buys” because managers look at this as a time to liquidate to get away from an asset than to hold you over a barrel for max value.

I would kick the tires to see what Warren is being valued at, then decide on whether or not I want to make the deal. I always might want to hold on to him as a flier at the end of my bench to see what happens. Warren will be fantasy relevant if he ever gets to see a full workload. With the fragility at the running back position, that’s not outside the range of possibilities.

Romeo Doubs, WR GB

Doubs was one of my favorite late-round wide receiver targets in rookie drafts last spring. I missed out in some leagues because I was hyper-focused on pounding the running back position. His ability to get downfield and make plays was heavily noted during his time at Nevada. Those aspects of his game have trickled down to training camp and in preseason where he has been routinely been making big plays.

From the outside looking in, it appears that Aaron Rodgers is very fond of Doubs. He has had 1-on-1 lunches with the rookie wide receiver and has said plenty of positive things about him in training camp. Typically, it takes time for Rodgers to build trust with a wide receiver, and the fact we are seeing indicators that he’s building a relationship with Doubs is only a good thing.

There aren’t many players in the league who have increased their stock during training camp than Doubs. He’s making a case to be one of the top pass-catchers in the offense this season. There are multiple clips of him roasting defensive backs in training camp.

The rebuttal to Doubs is that it’s only preseason. We’ve seen a lot of young wide receivers crush in training camp. Especially, when they are making highlight-reel catches against journeyman defensive backs.

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Per DLF’s ADP Over Time App.

Both cases hold merit, but the hype is driving his cost in dynasty. His ADP has jumped 43 spots since May. The increase should be larger now since we are a few weeks removed from the recent dynasty ADP data. Per the DLF Trade Finder, we are seeing get traded for almost everything from James Conner to second-round rookie picks. There are even deals where he was used in a package to get a top-tier asset like Austin Ekeler.

There’s no way around it, you’re going to have to pay up if you want to get him in dynasty. It’s a seller’s market for Doubs. Either way, if you’re interested, you should kick the other manager in the shins to see what’s the price. In a very small portion of leagues, he might be cheaper than you think.

I would like to recommend selling him as a piece in a much larger package to get an asset that you want. That way if he does blow up, you can rest at night because you received a good tangible asset in return. This also eliminates you from playing with fire by just capitalizing on the return on investment just in case his dynasty price goes to the moon. There’s nothing wrong with taking the value, but you might want to strategize your position, so you’re not left with seller’s remorse two months from now.

Bruce Matson
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Dynasty Fantasy Football: Will These Three Rookies Live Up to Their Preseason Buzz?
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