Optimisery: The Case for and Against Christian Kirk in Jacksonville
In this series, Jeremy Schwob and John Di Bari present the optimistic and pessimistic sides to significant changes in the dynasty landscape. Consider both sides, as the goal is to find somewhere in-between.
The old adage that there are two sides to every coin could never be more true than when circumstances change for a player. That is especially true when surprising information is thrust upon us. Psychological difficulty and distress can be encountered when individuals hold rigid views that are strictly one-sided (i.e., split) or alternate drastically from one to the other.
A therapeutic concept called integration is a healthier structure for holding both sides together and tolerating the benefits and flaws simultaneously. Relationally, this could involve being frustrated or angry with them while at the same time being able to maintain that you care about them. Such emotional difficulties can parallel our view of players on dynasty rosters amidst changing circumstances.
The goal of this series is not to have you pick a side or a winner of the argument. Rather, it is to consider both sides and not select one completely in the absence of the other.
Looking back a decade from now, maybe no player in history will have had a more significant impact on the wide receiver landscape than Christian Kirk. After Kirk’s signing of a four-year, $72 million contract with $37 million guaranteed with the Jacksonville Jaguars, all of the league’s receivers wanted to get paid. This deal set off a flurry of trades and contract extensions league-wide, the likes of which we haven’t seen before. This included multiple record-setting contracts at the receiver position across the league.
Were the Jaguars wise to back the Brinks truck up to Kirk’s doorstep and lock him in as the team’s number one receiver? Or is the Kirk signing just another error from a historically mistake-prone franchise? Only time will tell, but we’ll take a deeper dive here.
OPTIMISM
Kirk was the marquee signing from a flurry of moves the Jaguars shelled out early in free agency. That language may seem fairly absurd, but Kirk is undoubtedly the most relevant and exciting signing compared to the additions of Zay Jones, Laquon Treadwell, and Evan Engram.
While it hurts to leave Arizona’s explosive offense, he had been trapped behind DeAndre Hopkins throughout his time in the desert. Kirk eclipsed 100 targets just twice during his four-year stay. He now enters a rejuvenated, upside situation in Jacksonville following the debacle with Urban Meyer. Coming off nearly 1,000 yards last year, the potential for Kirk to be the focal point of a passing game led by second-year quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, is incredibly exciting.
While Lawrence’s rookie season was undoubtedly an enormous disappointment, it’s hard to expect any other outcome with such incompetence on the coaching staff. Doug Pederson has a strong history of facilitating offenses with young, highly-touted quarterbacks to help reach MVP-level performances. Anything should be better than the 27th-ranked offense in yardage and dead last in points scored under Urban Meyer last year.
The offensive pieces surrounding Kirk are the shell of Marvin Jones, who has remained admirably productive out of necessity, second-year receiver Laviska Shenault, and the aforementioned Jones. Additionally, weapons exist in the backfield, with a duo of Travis Etienne and currently rehabbing UDFA stud James Robinson. The group has some significant playmaking potential but is starved for someone to dominate usage. Despite some optimism, the Jaguars will still be a team that often is behind their opponents, requiring Lawrence to play catch-up. Kirk is primed to assume and maintain that role at this point in his career, and the front office making Kirk their number one priority this off-season certainly indicates this.
– Schwob
PESSIMISM
Kirk comes to Jacksonville as a reliable but not game-breaking wide receiver. The Jags paid him like they expect him to take the next step forward and become one of the NFL’s best receivers, but is that reasonable? Jacksonville’s new head coach Doug Pederson comes to the team with multiple years of experience as an NFL offensive coordinator and head coach. Unfortunately, if the numbers show us anything, it’s that Pederson’s leading receiver has never been a top option in his offensive attacks.
As the Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator from 2013 to 2015, Pederson’s number one receivers were Dwayne Bowe and Jeremy Maclin. Over that span, the team’s top-statistical wide receiver averaged 68 receptions on 107 targets for 838 yards and four scores. Those averages would’ve been good enough to be the WR34 a season ago. In 2015, Maclin’s 87-1,088-8 stat line was by far the best season any Pederson wide receiver ever had, and that was only good enough for a WR15 finish on the season – a middle-of-the-pack WR2.
Things were surprisingly worse in Philadelphia. As the Eagles’ head coach, Pederson’s top wide receivers averaged 96 targets, 58 catches, 669 yards, and five touchdowns. A year ago, that would have been the WR43 – a high-end WR4. Instead, Pederson has elected to run his offenses through his tight ends and receiving backs; Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles in KC and Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, and Miles Sanders in Philly. Simply put, Pederson’s offenses have not been heavily focused on the team’s number one wide receiver.
Could Kirk break that trend? It’s not likely. Over his four-year career, he has shown flashes of potential, but that potential has gone largely unrealized. His career averages have him catching 59 balls on 89 targets for 725 yards and four scores. Those numbers are eerily similar to Pederson’s average leading receiver. On a fantasy points basis, Kirk averages 155 points per season, Pederson’s top receiver in KC averaged 175 points, and his top receiver in Philly averaged 154 points. Everything is pointing in the same direction; a fringe WR3 finish at best.
– Di Bari
Ultimately, you must make decisions in dynasty but confront that which does not fit your desired perspective. As uncomfortable as it is, it’s essential to work diligently to integrate the alternative into your overall concept to make more informed decisions.
Was Kirk deserving of such a significant contract commitment this off-season? It certainly was a shocking move. It’s fair to wonder if there is more caution about the move because of the questionable nature of the other members of the Jaguars’ spending spree. Nonetheless, someone needs to be the primary target in this offense, and Kirk should have the opportunity to assume it. Will he take advantage, or will he prove to have a ceiling suited as only a decent secondary option?
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