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Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Daniel Jones or Jameis Winston?

Who would you prefer out of these two quarterbacks in your superflex leagues?

Daniel Jones and Jameis Winston

Welcome to Would You Rather: Dynasty Edition, a series from DLF based on the popular board game. Each week we post a poll on Twitter asking fans who they prefer between a player or a certain pick. The values used here come via the DLF Trade Analyzer. We will cover the results and discuss both sides of the poll in depth. Let’s get right to this week’s poll!

Daniel Jones versus Jameis Winston

We always look at players or picks that carry similar values and let you vote on who you would rather have. This week’s spotlight is on a couple of quarterbacks with many questions about their futures. Here’s how things shook out:

This one wasn’t even close, with Winston winning in a landslide. Winston took down Jones by over 50%. Jones’s three years of subpar performance have left a lasting scar on managers. Meanwhile, Winston at least has a QB3 finish under his belt from 2019, so it is easy to see why the margin is so broad.

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Data Courtesy DLF Trade Analyzer.

These numbers indicate the values in a superflex league. If we toggle the settings to just a one-QB league, the margin still favors Winston by a total of 19.7 to 13.7, a difference of six points. Neither have any real value in that format. Let’s look at both sides to see if the pollsters may have jumped to conclusions too quickly.

A Look at Daniel Jones

There is no way to sugarcoat it. Jones has been bad and gotten progressively worse in his first three seasons in the league in terms of fantasy finishes. He showed some promise in his rookie season, averaging 18.84 fantasy points per game. That was 12th-best in 2019 and better than Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Aaron Rodgers. Jones played just 13 games that season.

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Data Courtesy on DLF Player Scoring History App.

Since that promising rookie season, the Duke grad and several of his teammates have been besieged by injury. Jones has played in just 38 of 49 possible games since entering the league as the sixth overall pick in 2019, and 2018 first-round running back Saquon Barkley has played just 15 of 32 games the last two seasons. This doesn’t even factor in all the games missed at the wideout position.

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Data Courtesy on DLF Player Splits App.

One wouldn’t think that a running back would impact a quarterback that much, but when you consider it is a generational talent such as Barkley, the loss is sure to be felt. The Giants signal-caller has had his rookie-of-the-year backfield mate available for just half of his games. Jones is almost six total points per game better in those contents and has a full season pace of a QB6 when they are together. That is a substantial difference.

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Data Courtesy on DLF Coaching History App.

The chart above shows new head coaches Brian Daboll’s QB finishes during his time as an offensive coordinator in the NFL. It is hard to blame him for the early struggles, given that his quarterbacks were Brady Quinn, Colt McCoy, Matt Moore, and Matt Cassell. In 2018, he took over the Bills’ offense during Josh Allen’s rookie season. We all know how that story ends. Now we get to determine if the player or the coach was the reason for the improvement.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Combine Performance App.

Allen is a touch faster than Jones, but the two had similar Scouting Combine metrics. However, Jones statistically had a more prolific college career and faced much better competition. This is not to say that he will see a transformation like Josh Allen. I am just providing the background for what could be a return to relevance for the 25-year-old. If not now, when?

A Look at Jameis Winston

We mentioned in the open that Winston has a QB3 finish under his belt from 2019. Before that top-five finish, the controversial quarterback had been mediocre and a bye-week streamer at best. Before going down with an ACL injury in week eight last year, the 2013 Heisman Trophy winner averaged 17.49 points per game.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.

Even though Winston did have that solid finish under his belt just three seasons ago, the two are relatively equal in terms of QB1 finishes, and Jones blows Winston away in terms of QB2 finishes (which is vital for superflex leagues). Winstons does have one more top-five finish on his resume than the signal-caller in New York, but outside of 2019 has been average.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

Granted, Jones played 11 more games, but the percentages still favor him. Winston has a QB1/QB2 finish in 66.6% of games played, which is 73.7% for Jones. The Saints did their best to add weapons for their 28-year-old quarterback, selecting Chris Olave with the 11th overall pick and signing Jarvis Landry, formerly of the Dolphins and Browns. Along with a healthy Michael Thomas, this should make for an explosive trio of options.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.

We would be remiss if we didn’t mention the departure of head coach Sean Payton. While Pete Carmichael Jr has been the offensive coordinator in New Orleans since 2009, we know that Payton was the brains behind the high-octane offense that existed in the Big Easy for the past decade or so. Or was it Drew Brees? Again, it begs the question of whether it was the player or the coach, and again, we will find out in 2022.

Conclusion

As is the case with anything dynasty-related, team needs, league size, scoring, and aversion to risk play a role in how you construct your roster. I will go against the grain for the second week in a row and side with Jones here. The Giants added several weapons of their own the past couple of seasons including Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson. Add to that equation the addition of Daboll, the strength of schedule (the Giants are projected to have the easiest), age difference (Winston will turn 29 this season, Jones just turned 25), and a healthy Barkley, and we have a recipe for a significant bounceback season in 2022 for the fourth-year starter.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Daniel Jones or Jameis Winston?
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Eric Whitt
1 month ago

You aren’t concerned that Jones will not have a job after this season? Seems very likely based on past performance. Jameis has at a minimum this year and next.

Blauria3
1 month ago

I’m with you on this one too. My only concern is that Danny Dime’s neck issue is more than meets the eye.

Gregory Massa
1 month ago

As a Giants fan… The Giants should have never drafted Barkley and taken a QB in that fantastic draft. However, I had zero faith in the leadership of the organization at that time and they 100% would have screwed up any QB prospect they drafted… Having said allll that… Daniel Jones is, at best, a backup QB. I think he could hang around and play some nice games here and there. He’ll never win a team anything.

William Gamberino
Reply to  Gregory Massa
1 month ago

Have you actually looked at that “fantastic draft”? 1.01 QB Baker gone from Browns, QB 1.03 Darnold 2 time loser, QB 1.10 Rosen gone after 1 year from AZ…so you mean Josh Allen at 1.07 and Lamar at 1.32, a whopping 40% hit rate with 1st rounders and only 1 out of 4 in the top ten have their original starting job! Barkley is a stud and difference maker. He tore his ACL and had some bad luck with his ankle and a bad O line. Let’s hope they improve this year.

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