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Dallas Goedert: Underrated in Dynasty Fantasy Football

A top 4 TE breakout season is quickly approaching.

Dallas Goedert

It’s easy to see why Eagles fans are so excited about the team’s future when you take a look at their offense.

The City of Brotherly Love will be surrounded by a list of skill players that promise flights of football paradise. The wide receiving depth is as rich as it’s been in years, and though the tight end room begins the season without Zach Ertz for the first time since 2012, it’s with a player that promises a new era of greatness at the position.

For years Dallas Goedert played behind Ertz on the tight end depth chart, but after the latter was traded to the Cardinals mid-season, the fifth-year player experienced a bit of a breakout. In the 10 games following the trade, Goedert caught 41 passes for 614 yards and a pair of touchdowns. In a 17 game season he’d be on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards, which is easily elite tight end material.

In total, despite starting the season sharing targets with Ertz and missing two games, Goedert caught 56 passes for 830 yards, four touchdowns, and 15 yards per reception. Using Fantasy Data’s metrics, Goedert totaled 109 fantasy points, ninth among all tight ends in 2021. 

A concern for Goedert among fans was the amount of drops he had in 2021, but according to Pro Football Reference he just had five. And though his drop rate was 6.6%, it’s not far off from his previous high (5.7% in 2019). In Philadelphia any drop is going to be magnified with a range of proximity beyond what you’ll find in many fanbases, so keep that in mind.

Goedert will be with the Eagles for at least four more seasons, having signed a contract extension last November after the Ertz trade. And there’s good reason for it, as his first season as the full time starter could end with him producing a monster season at the position.

After the catch is one area where Goedert deserves considerable attention. Via Fantasy Pros, his 386 YAC was fourth among all tight ends, just following the footsteps of Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle. His 6.9 YAC per reception (nice) was also the most from any tight end with 400 yards in 2021.

So what’s the secret? Like Kelce, there’s a significant degree of agility, as you’ll see from these two nifty plays. He has an edge in athleticism after the catch that Zach Ertz lacked, making him the perfect underneath safety blanket for Jalen Hurts and company.

Going back to FantasyPros data, Goedert broke nine tackles throughout the 2021 season, tied with Rob Gronkowski and Gerald Everett for the most from any tight end that year. At 6’5 and beyond 250 lbs he’s a hulking presence and shows that after the catch. And once again, much of this was done as the Eagles’ TE2, now imagine how many tackles he can break with full time opportunity.

Goedert matches his agility and tackle shedding with equally impressive route running. When it comes to the best route running tight end we again go back to Travis Kelce. Today’s NFL loves tight ends that can break fast on routes like a regular wide receiver, and that’s exactly the kind of secret ingredient Goedert can whip up.

Let’s take a look at this play for example. Goedert hesitates off the release as if he’s the WR1, then breaks inside. At the top of his route he fakes the corner route right, using a nasty head fake to complete the bait, breaking to a corner route on his left. It’s maybe the best route I’ve seen from any tight end from the past season.

Of course, a big factor in Goedert making the potential leap to elite stardom at the tight end position comes from the play from Jalen Hurts. Last year Eagles quarterbacks had a 121.1 passer rating throwing to the tight end, a step up from the 103.6 rating in 2020. It’s also the best passer rating any significant receiver on the Eagles had in 2021.

With hands as good as Goedert’s, we can expect a high passer rating in 2022 and beyond. The Eagles long have had receivers that struggled to make plays at the catch point, but in No. 88’s case he eats contested snags for breakfast. His syrupy hands here allow the ball to stick in his hands off a craft tight end throwback design.

There truly is a lot to like about Dallas Goedert. He has great presence in a vertical heavy offense, great presence as the team’s safety blanket, flexibility as a route runner, toughness at the catch point, terrific hands, and agility and strength after the catch that puts him well beyond the garden variety receiving tight end.

So, in the vast world of dynasty football, where does this leave us? What can we expect from Goedert not just in 2022, but beyond that?

For 2022, Goedert is clearly a must have at the tight end position for any hungry dynasty owner. He will be in his first season as the Eagles’ starter, and as such the demand should be very high on his end.

Regardless if Jalen Hurts remains the starting quarterback or not, Goedert should still command the tight end market for years to come. He will turn 28 in early January, giving him several more years of high TE1 productivity. He has the skill set that at full health should last him a while in the NFL too. With guys like Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown around to give him more opportunities at layups, that should make his market all the more enticing.

This is why I think Goedert will break out as a top 4 tight end in 2022. It’s probably a bold statement to make considering who we have at the top 4 right now: Some order of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and Darren Waller. At the same time, it’s a statement I’m confident in.

Invest in Goedert quickly.

 

Dallas Goedert: Underrated in Dynasty Fantasy Football
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Michael Torriero
1 month ago

Hurts like Goedart a lot…and I agree about how talented the kid is but top 4??
I can see him 5-7 and that’s a pretty good year for him.

Todd Michaels
1 month ago

 It’s probably a bold statement to make considering who we have at the top 4 right now: Some order of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and Darren Waller.” How can there a top 4 list without Pitts?!?! I have Goedert and Pitts on the same team, and am really hoping Goedert breaks out so I can get a premium for him in a trade.

Appreciative Reader
Reply to  Todd Michaels
1 month ago

Pitts is the unquestioned TE1 in dynasty rankings, but I don’t think he’s a lock for top-4 production this year. With a downgrade at QB, he could take a step back in production from his rookie year. He’s due for positive TD regression that should at least keep him in play for potential top-4, but I wouldn’t bet big on him outproducing ANY of the others mentioned (other than Goedert) if they all play a full season.

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