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The Ask DLF Weekly Rundown

Tyler Justin Karp answers questions from the Weekly Ask DLF show.

Allen Robinson

We do a weekly Ask DLF show every Tuesday at 9 PM Eastern on DLF’s YouTube Channel. Every week, we answer live dynasty questions and love doing it, especially with how interactive the live chat is. Of course, make sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel so you can be a part of this experience in the future.

However, the chat has become so active that we rarely actually answer all the questions in full detail. Still, we don’t want to let the people down, especially those who tuned into the live show. Therefore, we decided to do this article series, where we will provide written answers to some of the lengthier questions or the ones where we had to cut the answer short.

Let’s jump into this week’s first question!

Silence of the Lamb – Who is hurt most by Julio Jones signing? I know Tyler said fade Mike Evans and TEs in his video short, but I’m thinking this probably hurts Russell Gage the most, especially with Chris Godwin now cleared too. Gage def lost

Russell Gage is the most hurt by the Julio Jones signing, even if my video short didn’t focus on that. Almost simultaneously with the Jones news, the Buccaneers announced that Chris Godwin would be cleared for training camp. That doesn’t mean he’s 100% healthy, but if he’s ready to practice in late July, I expect him to play week one.

The Buccaneers also recently signed Kyle Rudolph to add to Cameron Brate and Cade Otton, giving them at least some options at tight end. Therefore, I don’t expect them to run that many four wide receiver sets, or at least not enough to support all four wide receivers. Evans and Godwin will never leave the field, so Jones and Gage will split time at WR3. I expect Gage to be the slot receiver in their base offense, with Godwin sliding into the slot when Jones is the WR3.

However, Gage no longer has an every-down role. Before the Godwin and Jones news, I expected him to continue progressing from his previous numbers.

Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

Gage only finished as the WR38 and 36th in fantasy PPG in 2021, despite facing minimal target competition compared to Evans and Godwin. I think that output represents his ceiling in his new situation, and I rank him down at WR53 for the 2022 season. He’s just a speculative play, betting against Godwin and Jones remaining healthy.

E Wessel – Chigoziem Okonkwo worth a TE stash?

Okowkwo is a decent tight end stash.

Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.

He didn’t do much in his first three college seasons but broke out in his senior year in 2021. Surprisingly, he finished second on the team in receptions behind Rakim Jarrett and third in receiving yards behind Dontay Demus and Jarrett. Additionally, he tied for the team lead with five receiving touchdowns.

Based on that final year, the Titans drafted him with the 143rd overall pick in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He joins a depth chart led by Austin Hooper, who signed a one-year deal in free agency. Hooper didn’t do much during his time on the Browns, and I’m not sure he’s a massive obstacle to Okonkwo’s rise.

However, I’m not sure that targeting a depth tight end on the Titans is the best use of a late rookie pick or a waiver claim. Trey McBride is the clear top tight end in this rookie class, with Jelani Woods and Greg Dulcich as the clear next tier. Beyond them, though, I would prefer to target the Buccaneers’ Cade Otton, the Giants’ Daniel Bellinger, and the Jets’ Jeremy Ruckert ahead of Okonkwo. It’s not that I dislike Okonkwo, but I prefer other players over him.

Dwinell Fenton – Gabriel Davis and 1.10 or the 1.03?

I typically include a dynasty trade to highlight the DLF Trade Analyzer.

The analyzer prefers the 1.03 side, as we all said on the show. Currently, Kenneth Walker is the 1.03 among rookies in DLF’s August 1QB ADP data at 46.17 overall. I slightly prefer Garrett Wilson and Drake London over Walker, but I rate the three players similarly.

In contrast, the 1.10 is currently James Cook, who’s at 87.67 overall. Combine Cook with Davis at 71 overall, and the package seems slightly light for one of the top rookies in the class. If you truly believe in Davis, I can understand taking the package, but I’d still wish the 1.10 were the 1.08 or so to make the value more even.

UnreadierFuture – How are we feeling about Allen Robinson?

I mentioned it on the show, but I’ll make it even plainer here. Robinson represents a binary decision based on his 2021 performance. He’s either washed up, or he didn’t try last year.

Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

He turned 28 years old before the 2021 season, and he promptly had by far the worst year of his career. He set career lows in all receiving categories in both totals and per-game statistics, excluding his one-game 2017 season.

Of course, some might say that the Bears’ offense was horrible in 2021, preventing Robinson from having a good year. However, that explanation fails to account for Darnell Mooney, who caught 81 of 140 targets for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns. Mooney nearly doubled Robinson’s yards per game, and he had 50% more receptions. It’s clear from Robinson’s 2019 and 2020 seasons that prime Robinson is a far superior player to Mooney, so then what happened in 2021?

Either way, the Rams decided to invest in Robinson, signing him to a three-year, $46.5 million contract with $30.75 million guaranteed to replace Robert Woods. If Robinson can step into the Woods role in the Rams’ offense, he could easily return mid-WR2 value in 2022. But I refuse to bet on a player who started their decline in their age-28 season and now heads into their age-29 campaign. If I’m wrong on Robinson, I missed out on a WR2, but if I’m right, he will have no value. He’s not worth the risk, especially at his age and WR36 ADP price.

Gavyn Ferguson – Big fan of the content and your nails Tyler

I wanted to include this question to thank the audience for sticking with me throughout the past year plus of Ask DLF. I’m aware that I’m not the stereotypical fantasy football analyst in a lot of ways. It’s nice that people still watch even though I have a somewhat squeaky voice and sometimes have pink nails. I appreciate all of you both for watching the show and reading this article.

The Ask DLF Weekly Rundown
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Mark Boutot
6 months ago

Well, we’ll continue to have differing points of view on Robinson. I don’t think he’s washed-up to the point of not being worth anything. As far as not trying? It’s a tough call to say a professional athlete didn’t try because they had a bad season. I could maybe buy into that line of reasoning if the athlete in question had a history of doing so; of being a problem. From everything I’ve been able to read on him, I don’t think that was the case. So, for me, lack of effort is a stretch. He has three really good seasons in his career, with two of those happening in Chicago. A contract for three years, worth $46.5 million from the team that just won the Super Bowl, tells me maybe they know something the Bears don’t (which isn’t all that hard to imagine, by the way).

As I stated in the article from a couple of weeks ago, I believe Robinson’s down season is far more related to how pathetic the Bears were (still are?). There are many contributing factors: The emergence of Darnell Mooney; the fact Robinson played in only 12 games, missing two as a result of battling COVID while losing 10 pounds in the process and missing the other three games with a hamstring injury; playing in an offense as offensive as the Bears last season which couldn’t support decent seasons out of multiple WRs while also involving the RB and the TE; the TE, Cole Kmet, who ranked 12th among TEs in 2021 in receptions (1 reception away from ranking 9th in the league at the position); playing with a rookie QB who is more likely to check down and dump off passes to a TE than a non-rookie QB would be.

Remember, Kupp is two months OLDER than Robinson so I don’t think Robinson’s age can be used as an excuse. So why did Kupp, at 28 y.o., have the season he did? Robert Woods, while a good complementary WR, I would say isn’t as good as Robinson; also, after Woods went down, you had the replacement WR in Beckham, learning a new offense and while doing so, more looks and targets went Kupp’s way; the Rams offense was simply far, far superior to what the Bears were trying to do every week; the Rams had (have) a much better QB, a veteran (who could possibly sneak into the Hall of Fame) instead of a rookie (who definitely won’t be in the HoF) trying to learn his way.

Things are set up for Robinson to have a massive bounce-back season, in my opinion. I would be buying shares where possible. As I also mentioned in the other article, I could see, if Robinson is able to play the whole season (instead of the Rams having Woods for the first half and Beckham for the second half), he could put up a line somewhere in the neighborhood of 80 – 90 receptions; 1100 – 1200 receiving yards; and 6 – 8 TDs, a very solid mid-range WR2. Don’t forget, Cooper Kupp, while a very good WR, is no Jerry Rice and he will not repeat 145-1947-16; implying that regression will go somewhere. And again, if Robinson can play the whole season, he will be the primary beneficiary of that regression. Also, opportunity is everything and the Rams offense provides a much better opportunity than the Bears offense would (or ever will).

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