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Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Tyreek Hill or DK Metcalf?

We examine two more similarly-valued players and determine which may be the best dynasty option moving forward.

Tyreek Hill and DK Metcalf

Welcome to Would You Rather: Dynasty Edition, a series from DLF based on the popular board game. Each week we post a poll on Twitter asking fans who they prefer between a player or a certain pick. The values used here come via the DLF Trade Analyzer. We will cover the results and discuss both sides of the poll in depth. The last edition pitted Cam Akers against Derrick Henry.

Let’s get right to this week’s poll!

Tyreek Hill vs DK Metcalf

We always look at players or picks that carry similar values and let you vote on who you would rather have. Here’s how things shook out this week:

Metcalf has only a slight advantage according to the trade analyzer but took down the poll by a decent margin. Did Hill leaving Patrick Mahomes decrease his value that much? We mustn’t forget that one of Drew Lock or Geno Smith will be targeting Metcalf this season. Maybe it should be a bit closer than the results would indicate.

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Data Courtesy DLF Trade Analyzer.

These numbers reflect a superflex league. If we toggle the settings to a one-quarterback format league, the margin gets even more prominent for Metcalf to the tune of 636.80 to 615.67. Let’s look at both sides, including the impact of the new signal-callers each wideout will be working with every week.

A Look at Tyreek Hill

Hill has been a WR1 in four of the past five seasons. The one season he didn’t achieve that mark was in 2019, when he only played in 12 games. That year, Hill still managed a WR33 finish and averaged 15.7 PPR points per contest. He also worked in a WR2 finish in his rookie season, ending as the WR21 in 2016.

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Data Courtesy on DLF Yearly Data App.

For those worried about how the electric playmaker will fare without superstar quarterback Mahomes throwing to him, remember that Alex Smith was the starter in Kansas City in 2016 and 2017.

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Data Courtesy on DLF Player Splits App.

There is no denying that Hill was better with Mahomes, but he was still more than fine playing with the more conservative Smith. Hill averaged 15.0 points per game in 2016 before Mahomes solidified the downfield connection that makes Hill so dangerous.

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Data Courtesy on DLF Yearly Data App.

The “cheetah” enjoyed an average of 17.56 points per game or more in three of four years with Mahomes, including a career-high 21.93 points per contest in 2020. Meanwhile, in Miami, Tua Tagovailoa struggled early on. No receiver on the roster in 2021 outside Jaylen Waddle (140) saw more than 39 targets (Albert Wilson). Tight end Mike Gesicki did garner 112 looks, but that doesn’t translate for Hill.

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Data Courtesy of Fox Sports.

Another concern facing Hill is the fact that Mike McDaniel is now the head coach in South Beach. The Kyle Shanahan disciple has been stockpiling running backs and may be leaning towards a run-heavy approach on offense. Hill will be used. There is no doubt. Miami didn’t trade away six picks (including a first and second this year) for their new toy to not be played with. The question remains whether or not he will be a decoy or a fundamental factor in the new look offensive system.

A Look at DK Metcalf

Metcalf’s career arc has been a bit more up and down than that of his poll counterpart Hill. There have been some severe flashes of brilliance and some quiet stretches through the seasons. In three seasons, he has exactly one WR1, one WR2, and one WR3 finish. The 2020 campaign was his best to date, as he finished as the WR7 with 273.3 PPR points.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.

There isn’t much of a sample size for Metcalf without Russell Wilson as his quarterback, but interestingly enough, he performed better without Wilson at the helm.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.

The options leave a lot less to be desired in Seattle than they do in Miami. Lock and Smith have shown some signs of being able to start in the NFL, but neither should be considered a long-term solution for the Seahawks. For his career, Lock has just three games (out of 24) in which he has thrown three or more touchdowns. Smith has just two such occurrences across 45 games.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.

The good news is that Metcalf has done well with limited opportunities, and his big frame (6’4″, 235 pounds) should make him a regular target of whoever wins the starting job for Pete Carroll in training camp. This includes the red zone, where Metcalf should do much of his damage.

Data Courtesy of NFL Savant.

As expected, the 24-year-old led the team in red zone targets and red zone touchdowns in 2021. This trend should continue in 2022 and beyond, especially with Wilson out of the picture to get those rushing touchdowns. The offense should look a bit more traditional inside the 20s in the future.

Conclusion

As is the case with anything dynasty-related, team needs, league size, scoring, and aversion to risk play a role in how you construct your roster. I am going to agree with the majority here. We didn’t even discuss the age factor in our evaluations. Hill is 28 years old, and Metcalf will just be turning 25 during the season. The Seattle pass-catcher has surpassed the new Dolphins weapon regarding positional rankings and ADP, as it should be.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Tyreek Hill or DK Metcalf?
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