Dynasty Fantasy Football Battle: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Jameson Williams
One of my favorite situations in dynasty fantasy football is when there are two similarly valued players on the same team at the same position. So often, each player has his supporters in the dynasty community, and there’s a debate about which player should carry more value. I want to examine a few of these situations, breaking them down from statistical, ADP/trade value, and future situation angles. I did this series last year, so if you want to get an idea of what these articles are like, I provided the links at the bottom of this page.
Last time, I did my first running back article in this series, pitting Damien Harris against Rhamondre Stevenson. However, it’s time to return to the wide receiver position, as there are so many situations with similarly valued players on the same team this year in dynasty formats. Let’s jump into Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Jameson Williams!
Statistical Duel
Of course, Williams is an incoming rookie with no NFL statistics, so let’s begin with St. Brown. The Lions drafted him in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, where he joined a barren wide receiver depth chart. At the time, the Lions recently signed Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman in free agency, representing their top two wide receivers.
However, they released Perriman before the season began, and Williams suffered a season-ending concussion in week one, leaving a massive gap in the wide receiver room. Veteran Kalif Raymond stepped up and stabilized the position, and the Lions eventually added Josh Reynolds from the Rams. But St. Brown led the Lions in all receiving categories, with significantly more targets, receptions, and yards than anyone else.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift missed time, but St. Brown had a successful rookie season overall. Even on a per-game basis, he slightly outproduced Hockenson in yards and receptions, impressive for a rookie wide receiver. But, it’s fair to note that St. Brown produced far more in the games Hockenson missed.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.
As you can see, there’s no comparison between the games with and without Hockenson. Without him, St. Brown was one of the best fantasy wide receivers in the NFL, averaging 25.3 fantasy PPG and a ridiculous 35.1% target share. Five games is a small sample size, but his performance over that time was just a hair behind Cooper Kupp’s 2021 PPG average. That type of fantasy outburst doesn’t happen by mistake, so there’s no doubt that St. Brown is at the very least a talented NFL player.
In contrast, Williams only has his college career to judge him.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He began as a true freshman at Ohio State in 2019 but failed to see much playing time. He only participated in four games, and he made little impact behind KJ Hill, Chris Olave, Binjimen Victor, and Garrett Wilson.
Then, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the Big Ten schedule, so Ohio State only played eight games. Williams played in six of those, but he still only had nine catches for 154 yards and a touchdown. Olave and Wilson had over 700 yards even in the shortened season, and even tight end Jeremy Ruckert outplayed Williams.
After the 2020 season, Olave decided to return to Ohio State for his senior year, while Wilson remained as the incumbent top wide receiver. Ohio State also had budding superstar Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who became the team’s best receiver in 2021. Therefore, Williams decided to transfer to Alabama, where Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle had just left for the NFL.
In 2021, Williams became a dominant force, leading Alabama in receiving yards and touchdowns ahead of John Metchie. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn ACL in the national championship game, hurting his draft stock. If he had not had that injury, I believe he would’ve been the first wide receiver selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, ahead of Drake London, Wilson, and Olave. Instead, he fell to 12th overall, where the Lions traded up to acquire him. Right now, it’s unclear when Williams will be healthy enough to play, but the Lions felt comfortable taking a chance on him.
ADP Comparison
Right now, the two players are back to back in DLF’s July ADP data. Williams is the WR33 and 63.5 overall, while St. Brown is the WR34 and 64.67 overall. However, they weren’t this close in previous months.
Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
St. Brown had a significant lead in ADP in February and March, as it wasn’t clear where Williams would fall in the NFL Draft. By April, Williams narrowed the gap, although St. Brown had a slight advantage, coming in nine spots ahead. However, I don’t believe most dynasty managers expected the Lions to get a top receiver in the 2022 NFL Draft, as they had signed DJ Chark in free agency.
Therefore, in May, Williams and St. Brown essentially flipped positions, as Williams gained value from his draft capital, and St. Brown lost value from the added competition. June’s data seems like an outlier to me, as St. Brown fell to 73rd overall, which seems very low for a player with his rookie production. Also, Williams rose in value despite negative news surrounding his injury return. Now, though, they’ve settled back to back in ADP, and I’m interested to see if St. Brown retakes the lead in August and September’s data.
The Future
Both players have a relatively settled future on the Lions. Williams just signed his rookie deal, which contains four fully guaranteed seasons plus a fifth-year option. St. Brown’s rookie contract runs through 2024, and he’s eligible for a potential extension after the 2023 season. But for at least the next two years, both wide receivers will play on their rookie deals on the Lions.
However, while their contracts are secure, the surrounding talent is more in flux. I fully expect the Lions to reach an extension with star tight end Hockenson, possibly in the next few weeks. But I doubt they retain Chark long-term, as he seems like a short-term replacement until Williams gets healthy. More importantly, they can finally escape Jared Goff’s monster contract after this season, saving $20 million. Unless Goff leads the Lions to the playoffs, I can’t imagine they will move forward with him if they have better options in the NFL Draft or the trade market.
It’s challenging to imagine Goff fully supporting St. Brown, Williams, Hockenson, and Swift in this scheme, but another quarterback definitely could. Additionally, if the Lions can unlock the good version of Goff, he did throw for 4,600 yards in 2018 and 2019, supporting multiple fantasy options in both years. I think that version of Goff only existed because of Rams’ head coach Sean McVay, but at least he’s been a fantasy-friendly quarterback in the past. He’s not a fantasy nightmare like Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz, or other bottom-tier quarterbacks.
Conclusion
I believe both St. Brown and Williams are currently undervalued due to the Lions’ offense. However, if I’m forced to choose, I still prefer the draft capital and college profile from Williams over St. Brown. If the Lions saw St. Brown as a true WR1, they wouldn’t have traded up in the first round to acquire Williams, as they had multiple other needs on their team. I currently have Williams at WR23 and St. Brown at WR28 in my dynasty rankings, well ahead of their ADP.
Both players are incredibly young and talented, and offenses change over time. The Lions probably won’t be a bad offense forever, even if their track record might say otherwise. I’d recommend drafting both players at their current depressed cost, although Williams comes at a more considerable discount in my eyes.
2022 Entries: Jaylen Waddle vs. Tyreek Hill, Kadarius Toney vs. Wan’Dale Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Skyy Moore, Chase Claypool vs. George Pickens, Damien Harris vs. Rhamondre Stevenson
2021 Entries: Courtland Sutton vs. Jerry Jeudy, Ronald Jones vs. Leonard Fournette, Corey Davis vs. Denzel Mims, Hunter Henry vs. Jonnu Smith, Cooper Kupp vs. Robert Woods
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
