Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Marquise Brown or Jameson Williams?

Jeff Smith

Welcome to Would You Rather: Dynasty Edition, a series from DLF based on the popular board game. Each week we post a poll on Twitter asking fans who they prefer between a player or a certain pick. The values used here come via the DLF Trade Analyzer. We will cover the results and discuss both sides of the poll in depth. Let’s get right to this week’s poll!

Marquise Brown vs Jameson Williams

We always look at players or picks that carry similar values and let you vote on who you would rather have. This week we matched up two hot-button receivers for the poll and here’s how things played out:

Brown wins this poll, but rookie Williams has a slight advantage according to the trade analyzer and we have a rare case where the voters do not agree. The difference in the poll results was about as similar as the difference in the values from the trade analyzer and by that, I mean very slim.

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Data Courtesy DLF Trade Analyzer.

These numbers reflect a one-quarterback league. If we toggle the settings to a superflex league, the values get swapped as Brown has a substantial edge in value to the tune of 247.1 to 182.3. Let’s look at both sides.

A Look at Marquise Brown

If you listen closely enough, you may be able to hear Brown and Kyler Murray singing “reunited and it feels so good” all the way from Phoenix. The first night of the 2022 NFL Draft sent Brown packing to play with his former college teammate from Oklahoma. The Cardinals front office found themselves looking for help at the position when star wideout DeAndre Hopkins was suspended for the first six games of 2022. The news didn’t come out until after the draft, but they had to know it was looming at the time of the deal. Brown was about as good of a replacement as they could hope for.

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Data Courtesy on DLF Yearly Data App.

Looking at the chart above, we see that Brown has improved in each of his first three seasons in the NFL. In 2021, the former Ravens receiver was the WR22 despite playing 16 of 17 games, five of which came with backup Tyler Huntley at the helm.

I included Christian Kirk in this graphic because he is another reason the Arizona front office went out and traded a first-round pick to Baltimore for Brown’s services. Kirk signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars on April 22nd, just six days before the draft. This left only a 34-year-old AJ Green and a bunch of other question marks left on the roster at the wide receiver position.

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Data Courtesy on DLF Coaching History App.

It will certainly be a much more pass-heavy environment for Brown in Arizona. Above we see the run/pass ratios for coaches John Harbaugh and Kliff Kingsbury. While the Ravens did pass at a much higher rate in 2021, a majority of that can be attributed to losing every starting running back they had before the season even started.

Harbaugh had been leaning on the run heavily before that fateful training camp. They were living in a 58/42% ratio where Kingsbury has been steadily in the 45/55% range, meaning the Cards throw it about 13% more of the time than do the Ravens. That is good news for a receiver.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

We can expect a repeat in the targets and receptions rankings for the 25-year-old and we should see an increase in touchdowns being in a much more favorable offensive system for wideouts. Thus, we should see a bump in his WR22 finish from 2021. Kyler Murray has a better career completion rate than that of Lamar Jackson and also has only thrown 14 fewer touchdowns despite playing in only 12 fewer games. The arrow is pointing straight up for Brown and he sits as the WR26 in the current DLF rankings.

A Look at Jameson Williams

Detroit’s selection of Williams with their first-round pick (12th overall) was one of the bigger surprises of the draft. What made it even more shocking was the fact that they traded up to get the Alabama playmaker. There is no doubt that they are in need of an injection of big plays in the Motor City. Williams, when healthy, should be able to provide that for them.

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Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Taking a look at the numbers from his junior season in Tuscaloosa, we see just how big of plays Williams can make. Averaging 19.9 yards per catch is unheard of and ranked him ninth in the nation. The players who placed ahead of him did not do it against SEC defenses and did not score 15 touchdowns. The other players were also not even close to the 79 total receptions that Williams tallied either. There is no denying his dominance in 2021.

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Data Courtesy of CFB Stats.

If you haven’t had the chance, be sure to read our rookie update piece on Williams courtesy of Bruce Matson. Here you will see him be compared to a better version of Will Fuller. Matson notes one major knock against the Crimson Tide alum and that is his size. Williams has the height but his weight leaves a little to be desired as he comes in at 179 pounds (or 189 depending on the source). Regardless, I would like to see a tad more meat on the bones. His future is bright and the opportunities should be plentiful but the major question is and will always be health. And at his size, how long can he last in the NFL?

Conclusion

As is the case with anything dynasty-related, team needs, league size, scoring, and aversion to risk play a role in how you construct your roster. I am going to agree with the masses here. Brown is a proven commodity in the NFL and gets a huge upgrade in offensive schemes. The Detroit Lions are still, well, the Detroit Lions. Jared Goff is average at best. I’d much rather have the guy catching passes from Kyler Murray. When the rankings and values are this close, I favor the side with the most potential, and that is clearly the Kliff Kingsbury-led Arizona Cardinals offense.

jeff smith
Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Marquise Brown or Jameson Williams?