Summer and the off-season are upon us. As dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Risers and Fallers series, we break down some of the fantasy-relevant dynasty players, including rookies, and look at their values while providing actionable advice on what to do with them.
John Metchie, WR HOU (January Rookie Rank=23.6, Current Rank=16)
Metchie has seen a slow and steady rise in value since the January rookie rankings were published. The reality that Houston may actually field a serviceable offense is starting to set in for fantasy managers. Davis Mills appears to be the guy there and Metchie should carve out a nice role alongside Brandin Cooks. This is a completely different trend from last week’s rookie faller, Matt Corral.
Metchie has crept his way into the top ten in positional rankings at DLF, recently supplanting David Bell and just one spot behind the recently featured Christian Watson. Expert rankers Ken Kelly and Steve Gill are highest on the Alabama product and both have him as their number ten overall wideout. The Texans front office thought enough of Metchie to trade into the second round (44th overall) to make the selection. In turn, they gave up a third (68th overall) and two fourths (108th and 124th overall).
Here is a look at all of the current rookie wide receiver rankings. Ken says the rookie is “underrated and explosive” and Steve notes that “the injury hurts, but plenty have come back from an ACL, and he should apparently be ready for July. He can be a really strong #2.”
Jack of All Trades
The 2020 National Champion wideout can play multiple positions and already possesses the ability to run an NFL route tree. During his sophomore year at Alabama, Metchie had to fight with first-rounders Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith for targets. The 6’0”, 195-pounder still managed to haul in 55 receptions for 916 yards and six touchdowns.
His junior season was even better despite playing alongside another first-rounder in Jameson Williams. DLF’s own Tyler Justin Karp sees a little bit of Robert Woods in Metchie, as noted in his rookie update back in May.
The depth chart already has him projected as the starting slot wide receiver and the competition for that spot is non-existent. There will be a battle for targets with veteran Brandin Cooks and the promising Nico Collins. A full prospect profile, including some interesting health tidbits, can be found at NFL.com.
Speaking of Woods, Metchie is being drafted just a few spots ahead of the journeyman wideout and fellow rookie Alec Pierce. If you didn’t get a chance to watch many Alabama games, you can see a few of Metchie’s jaw-dropping highlights below.
We would have to think that the fact that the Texans traded up for the versatile wideout means he should get a shot right away. Add that to his second-round draft capital, and we could be looking at approximately 40 to 50 receptions in year one.
Gone is Tim Kelly and here is Pep Hamilton. The Houston offense struggled in 2021 with Deshaun Watson being inactive for all 17 games. Davis Mills filled in admirably and the Texans may have accidentally found their quarterback of the future late in the 2020 draft. Mills was selected in the third round (67th overall) out of Stanford and showed some promise last year. Hamilton runs a West Coast-style offense and tends to lean on the pass.
New head coach Lovie Smith has given the reins over to Hamilton and will focus on the defense. When Hamilton was last an offensive coordinator with the Colts, his offense supported three serviceable wideouts. TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Andre Johnson all finished in the top 50 in points back in 2015. The NFL has obviously changed since then but this is proof that the offense can be more than just Brandin Cooks going forward.
Conclusion/Course of Action
The ADP and rankings align almost perfectly with John Metchie. His overall rank sits at 16 and the latest DLF ADP has the 22-year-old being selected 14th overall with an average draft spot of 15.20.
I agree with Ken Kelly that Metchie is underrated and am trying to acquire shares wherever I can. His pedigree is a nice one and the opportunity should be there right away as noted earlier.
The straight-up trade for Cordarrelle Patterson is dynasty trading 101. Go get that young guy with upside while unloading an aging vet with competition at his position. Good luck out there rookie drafters!
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Faller: Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC - August 14, 2022
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Daniel Jones or Jameis Winston? - August 11, 2022
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Riser: Alec Pierce, WR IND - August 10, 2022