The DLF Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag
Hey, loyal Dynasty League Football universe. I’ll be answering your mailbag questions this off-season and couldn’t be more excited to do so. The off-season is when dynasty league managers get to sit back and relax.
Wait. That’s completely incorrect.
The off-season is when we refine our strategies, look back at the past year, the year to come, and everything in between. For this week’s questions, I asked the Twitterverse for some help.
I need and want questions for the @DLFootball mailbag? Whatcha got for me Twitter world?
— (((Shanesays))) (@ShaneIsTheWorst) June 26, 2022
Going forward, you can send your questions to the DLF mailbag. Let’s dig in!
Who are you targeting in sfb? When are you taking your 2nd qb?
— Biscuit Bowl Bestball (@joshreedy5) June 26, 2022
If you didn’t know, the SFB12 drafts have already begun, for the folks lucky enough to make it into a live draft. With SFB season in full swing it makes sense that many of us are looking for any edge we can so we can take down the world’s largest redraft league. Based on the scoring setup, when targeting quarterbacks, you want to take a few things into account. You need to find QBs with high completion percentages:
But that’s not all, you want quarterbacks who throw for a lot of touchdowns, and considering that interceptions will cost you -4, you also want to find quarterbacks with a low interception % (courtesy of Stat Muse):
Efficiency is highly rewarded in SFB, so efficient quarterbacks are who I will target, someone like Derek Carr would be an excellent QB2 for the format. When you should draft your second quarterback is going to depend on where your picks fall and how your specific draft plays out. In most instances, I want to come out of the first three rounds with two quarterbacks when playing in a superflex league, but if quarterbacks fly off the board I’m not going to overdraft a bad quarterback (Daniel Jones, Davis Mills, etc.).
With consensus is start ups shifting more and more towards building around QB/young WR.
Do you think we’ll ever get to a point where building around RB is the better value play
— Rich – DynastyIsland 🏝 (@DynastyIsland) June 26, 2022
Questions surrounding the philosophy of dynasty fantasy football are always the most interesting to me. To provide some context to the above question, I wanted to share the most recent superflex ADP on DLF.
The first round consists of eight quarterbacks, two wide receivers, one running back, and one tight end.
Though quarterbacks continue to fly off the board in the second round, with the QB13 being drafted at 22 overall, we see more running backs drafted than wide receivers, with six running backs off the board compared to four wide receivers.
In round three, we see another four quarterbacks off the board, bringing the total number of QBs drafted through three rounds to 18, or exactly half of the completed draft. There are eight wide receivers and running backs off the board through three rounds.
While it does appear most fantasy managers are building their rosters through the quarterback position, wide receivers are not being drafted with the same vigor. Though it’s hard to envision fantasy managers moving away from drafting quarterbacks early and often, that doesn’t mean it’s an impossibility.
If quarterback scoring flattens between the elite and non-elite quarterbacks, then the advantage of drafting an elite quarterback will also decrease. The QB1 last year outscored the QB12 by 5.5 fantasy points per game. The difference was 6.7 points per game in 2020 and 8.8 points in 2019. Though those margins are decreasing, a 5.5 points per game difference is still a significant advantage so it’s difficult to imagine that fantasy managers won’t continue to chase that edge.
My personal belief is to attack that edge even further by attempting to trade back into the first round so that I can draft two of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson. But other managers might not have that same idea, and would rather wait and get, while also good, not elite quarterbacks such as Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow or Matthew Stafford.
One area I think we could see a pivot from the QB drafting is in the second through fourth rounds. The QB2 scoring is much flatter than the QB1 scoring, with a difference of 2.5 points per game in 2018, 1.7 in 2019, 3.4 in 2020, and 2.7 in 2021, so it might be wiser to search for edges at other positions, possibly running backs in this part of the draft. I still find this unlikely though, as most of us will continue to chase the upside allure of the QB position.
How many non qb players would you NOT trade for an early 2023 1st.
— Fowksee (@Vike_FF) June 26, 2022
I’ve chosen the above question for two reasons. One, it’s an interesting question, and two, because I’ve been extremely lax in creating this list. I’m going to assume this question refers to superflex leagues. There are a finite number of players I wouldn’t trade for a singular 2023 first, and to help me on this endeavor I’m going to use the DLF Dynasty top 250 rankings.
Starting at the wide receiver position, I would not trade Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, and CeeDee Lamb without additional compensation beyond the 2023 first. These are the wide receivers who have little to no chance of losing significant value over the next 12 months, by my estimation.
I would think about trading DK Metcalf, Jaylen Waddle and Deebo Samuel for a 2023 first if offered, but it would depend on my roster construction, team build, and current blueprint for the roster. After that, every wide receiver on my roster could be had for a single 2023 first. I understand that this risks losing productive seasons from players like Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, but I would much rather trade these players today for the pick, considering the value of the 2023 class, then hold onto them and hope to be able to make a trade next year when they are 29 (in Hill’s case, or 30 years old as in Adams and Kupp’s case, for less valuable draft picks in 2024 or 2025.
At running back, the list is much smaller: Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, Breece Hall, and D’Andre Swift. The market for each of these running backs should demand that you receive better than a 2023 first back in compensation. At tight end, assuming no tight end premium, the list of players consists of Kyle Pitts and Mark Andrews.
That’s a total of 14 players. Obviously each of these players would be ranked in my top 14 for non-quarterback positions, and are who I consider the elite assets in dynasty football. My list is coloured by the leagues that I play, with 2023 first-round picks nearly impossible to acquire right now. Once the point-scoring season kicks off, things will change and the value of the 2023 class will crystalize, surely changing some of my thoughts on this question.
2022 a better year to "rebuild"?
How many breakout WRs and RBs do your expect in the top 12? One favourite RB and WR?
Pat Freiermuth, thoughts?
Is it better to target value or upside in trades?
How do you look for trades?
best principals for a dynasty startup? pic.twitter.com/sRzdnr8iw6
— Peter Howard (@pahowdy) June 26, 2022
Peter brought a ton of questions, but I’m going to focus on just one, since it’s an area near and dear to my heart: how do I look for trades? My overarching strategy as it pertains to trades is I’m looking at my own roster to determine strengths, weaknesses and areas of opportunity. Strengths and weaknesses are self-evident so there’s no real need to discuss those, but areas of opportunity on your own roster are something I would like to examine.
Specifically, which players can I trade who I feel the market overvalues compared to their production, while receiving back players with similar production but with lesser value in the fantasy community’s eyes? My “Manic and Chill” co-host, Scott Connor, has discussed this topic on many occasions, and it’s a simple premise. Can I get 90% (or whichever threshold you prefer), of production from player A plus an additional asset if I trade player B? The names of the players in question don’t matter.
The short answer is almost always yes. It’s important not to tier down too far positionally in order to make these deals. For example you wouldn’t want to trade Justin Jefferson for Jaylen Waddle and a 2023 second-round rookie pick, because the scoring and value difference is too vast between those players. But trading Waddle for Diontae Johnson and Chris Godwin +, would be a slam dunk move. The long-term goal of this strategy is to acquire additional assets without losing much, if any, production from your roster.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Pivoting Away from Jonathan Taylor - August 29, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Kyle Pitts, Brock Purdy and Roster Construction - August 22, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Late-Round Stashes and More - August 15, 2023
