Optimisery: The Case For And Against Russell Wilson In Denver

In this series, Jeremy Schwob and John Di Bari present the optimistic and pessimistic sides to significant changes in the dynasty landscape. Consider both sides, as the goal is to find somewhere in-between.

The old adage that there are two sides to every coin could never be more true than when circumstances change for a player. That is especially true when surprising information is thrust upon us. Psychological difficulty and distress can be encountered when individuals hold rigid views that are strictly one-sided (i.e., split) or alternate drastically from one to the other.

A therapeutic concept called integration is a healthier structure for holding both sides together and tolerating the benefits and flaws simultaneously. Relationally, this could involve being frustrated or angry with them while at the same time being able to maintain that you care about them. Such emotional difficulties can parallel our view of players on dynasty rosters amidst changing circumstances.

The goal of this series is not to have you pick a side or a winner of the argument. Rather, it is to consider both sides and not select one completely in the absence of the other.

Arguably, the most significant move this off-season was the Seahawks trading Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. Wilson was packaged with a fourth-round pick in exchange for Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and a fifth-round pick. Quite the haul, but warranted, for one of the league’s best quarterbacks still in his prime.

How will this all play out in the mile-high city? Is the addition of Wilson all the team needed to unseat the Chiefs at the top of the AFC West while fending off the Raiders and Chargers? Or is it too little too late in a division that engaged in an off-season arms race? Let’s find out.

OPTIMISM

It sure hurts to lose DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and a reliable running game. However, it does not hurt to lose the longstanding desire in Seattle to underutilize Wilson and run the football as much as possible. Further, if you’re going to lose the weapons Wilson had in Seattle, is there a better group to walk right into than Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and Javonte Williams? That’s not to mention Albert Okwuegbunam, Melvin Gordon, and KJ Hamler. You could argue that is at least a lateral move (*or squint to see that group as a slight upgrade*). At the very least, these weapons have been productive with the likes of Drew Lock, Joe Flacco, and Teddy Bridgewater as their signal-callers.

As our colleague, Addison Hayes, mentions, has never thrown less than 25 touchdowns in a season, along with an 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt in his career. That is with some questionable play-calling and scheming that would certainly work against him achieving adequate passing numbers.

I'm team Courtland Sutton this year, so when I watched @RonStewart_'s video saying to AVOID him in 2022, I disagreed… strongly. So I made a video responded to his video!

👇👇👇https://t.co/DJbSo4A7S5 pic.twitter.com/pYY7pmF65O

— Addison Hayes (@amazehayes_) June 15, 2022

Another component of Wilson’s new situation in Denver is his divisional opponents. While he will face powerful divisional opponents six times each season, this is likely the strongest collection of offensive teams in the league. Of course, assumptions are always dangerous, but based on the AFC West having last year’s third (Chiefs), fourth (Chargers), and 11th (Raiders) ranked total offensive yards (and comparable rankings for points scored); there will likely be some very high-scoring affairs out west.

– Schwob

PESSIMISM

This was a hard one for me to find the negatives. I’m a big Russell Wilson guy, and I think he’s got the best weapons of his career, but I can always find the dark cloud in any sunny situation. Throughout new head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s career, his teams have not been as pass-heavy as many would like. As the offensive coordinator in Buffalo (2013-2014), Jacksonville (2016-2018), and Green Bay (2019-2021), Hackett’s teams have averaged 55% pass plays versus 45% rushing plays.

Even in Green Bay, with Aaron Rodgers as the signal-caller, the team passed 56.5% of the time. By comparison, last season, the top-three pass-heavy teams were Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and (shockingly) the Jets. They passed 66.46%, 63.44%, and 63.32% last year, respectively. You can get as excited as you want about Russ finally getting to cook in Denver, but Hackett’s history of play-calling should give you some pause, as his teams have been the definition of “middle of the pack” in terms of run-pass splits.

Another factor that may ding Wilson’s arrival in Denver is defense. Granted, the AFC West offenses are now loaded, and on paper, months before the season starts, it looks like all of those matchups are likely to be shootouts. However, putting that aside for a moment, Denver’s defense as currently constructed is better than any of the defenses we saw in Seattle over their more recent, post-Superbowl teams.

Looking back at the past three seasons, Denver’s defense has allowed 5,607 yards on average, while Seattle allowed 6,213 yards. The most Denver gave up in a single season over that time was 5,887 yards, while in Seattle’s best year, they gave up 6,089 yards. If Denver’s defense shows up and performs up to their capabilities, the Bronco offense isn’t going to be asked to do as much as they would if the defense was a sieve. As a result, Russ might not have to cook as much as we’d like.

– Di Bari

Ultimately, you must make decisions in dynasty but confront that which does not fit your desired perspective. As uncomfortable as it is, it’s essential to work diligently to integrate the alternative into your overall concept to make more informed decisions.

In Wilson’s case, with a proven track record and a lot left in the tank, the question comes down to his situation. Of course, you are free to have differing opinions on the players in Seattle and Denver. But the potential upside of these players certainly shifts with the relocation of Wilson. A new scheme, playbook, and playcalling will undoubtedly play a role – but can those facets be worse or better than what he’s already dealt with for a decade?

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John DiBari

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Like a true degenerate, John has over 20 years of fantasy experience across all sports. Nowadays he primarily focuses on dynasty and redraft football, fantasy golf, and fantasy hockey and has written about each across multiple platforms for nearly 5 years. He loves rookie mock drafts and can always find a negative, pessimistic angle on all your favorite players.