Optimisery: The Case for and Against Davante Adams in Las Vegas
In this series, Jeremy Schwob and John Di Bari present the optimistic and pessimistic sides to significant changes in the dynasty landscape. Consider both sides, as the goal is to find somewhere in-between.
The old adage that there are two sides to every coin could never be more true than when circumstances change for a player. That is especially true when surprising information is thrust upon us. Psychological difficulty and distress can be encountered when individuals hold rigid views that are strictly one-sided (i.e., split) or alternate drastically from one to the other.
A therapeutic concept called integration is a healthier structure for holding both sides together and tolerating the benefits and flaws simultaneously. Relationally, this could involve being frustrated or angry with them while at the same time being able to maintain that you care about them. Such emotional difficulties can parallel our view of players on dynasty rosters amidst changing circumstances.
The goal of this series is not to have you pick a side or a winner of the argument. Rather, it is to consider both sides and not select one completely in the absence of the other.
One of the biggest names to move during this musical chair off-season was the trade of perennial WR1 Davante Adams from Green Bay to Las Vegas. Many fantasy players were excited at the prospect of Adams being reunited with his college quarterback and BFF, Derek Carr. In what turned into an AFC West arms race, the Raiders acquired one of the most prominent names available in the NFL outside of the quarterbacks.
In what could be a year full of shootouts, should Adams’ owners be happy about the move, or are the concerns moving from Aaron Rodgers to Carr warranted? We’ll take a look in this edition of Optomisery, and you can be the judge.
OPTIMISM
Over the past four years, Adams has averaged 108 receptions for 1,328 yards and 12 touchdowns. So yeah, he’s good. Of course, we all know this. The question is, without Aaron Rodgers, could his production possibly maintain (or even improve *ducks*)? Well, suppose there was a place to achieve similar numbers and his quarterback wouldn’t have to be one of the other elite options in the game. In that case, a familiar partner may be the only other case for achieving these incredibly consistent video game numbers. The case for this to occur will be less about Adams and more about his quarterback.
Enter Fresno State college teammate; Derek Carr. The overcited college numbers they produced in two years in the Mountain West Conference a decade ago may not be very relevant. However, they certainly indicate that Carr can get Adams the ball as much as humanly possible. Now, with Carr coming off the most yards (4,804) of his career and a solid 68.4% completion percentage, he’s started to quell the NFL ‘game manager’ narrative surrounding him. Even if Carr does not produce Rodgers-level passing yardage (could be close) and touchdown (probably not close) totals, Adams will undoubtedly help these numbers to be more Rodgers-esque.
Las Vegas also provides something that Adams did not have much of recently in Green Bay: receiving support. The pass-catching core of Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow provide legit weapons that opposing defenses must account for around Adams. That may or may not be a good thing. But at the very least, that makes it extremely difficult to double-team Adams. This conundrum for opposing corners and safeties may be most prevalent in the red zone, where Adams is nearly unstoppable.
– Schwob
PESSIMISM
I already looked at the reasons why it is time to trade away Adams in a recent ‘veterans to trade away‘ article I wrote. Nothing has changed since then, so there aren’t going to be a ton of new reasons for me to dig into here. A brief recap: Adams will turn 30 years old in season and will never see the target volume he saw with the Packers, which led to his success over the last several seasons.
Another reason for Adams not living up to expectations in Las Vegas is that he has been one of the most heavily-targeted receivers in the red zone over the last several seasons while with the Packers. He averaged 23.6 red-zone targets over the previous five years in Green Bay. During that time, the number two option in the red zone for the Packers only saw 11.4 targets.
Conversely, over the last two seasons with the Raiders, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller have been vacuuming up red-zone targets from Derek Carr. Carr’s top target has averaged 22.5 red-zone looks, while the second option has averaged 9.5. Unless the Raiders are living in the red zone – and passing like crazy while there – Adams will never see the high-quality red zone volume that led to him scoring 69 times over the last six seasons. Targets down, touchdowns down, and age up: woof, that’s an awful combination.
– Di Bari
Ultimately, you must make decisions in dynasty but confront that which does not fit your desired perspective. As uncomfortable as it is, it’s essential to work diligently to integrate the alternative into your overall concept to make more informed decisions.
It is always a complex case when a player goes from one of the best offensive situations to one that has historically and objectively been worse. There is always a glimmer of hope when that new situation is on the upswing. Improving Adams’ historical production is nearly impossible, and replicating it will be difficult too. However, expecting him to come within a reasonable range of his past output is entirely possible. With talent like Adams, it’s probably unwise to doubt him.
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