Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy, Sell and Hold: AFC West
With the NFL Draft now months behind us, team minicamps ongoing, and training camp/preseason just around the corner, we are nearing the crescendo of the NFL off-season. As such, the window for making final roster adjustments is drawing to a close, with the obtainment of actionable game information just over the horizon in September. Put another way, it would not be unreasonable to assert player values are less likely to fluctuate over the next couple of months (pending injuries) as compared to September when the regular season is in full force.
In that spirit, I’ve selected players to buy, sell and hold for all 32 NFL teams. This miniseries will be broken down by division, with 12 players highlighted per article and 96 overall. In a 12-team league with 20 roster spots (similar to the DLF ADP), that accounts for 40% of the players!
Before we dive in, a few notes and disclaimers:
- Player values were obtained from the combination of the June ADP, and the DLF Top-250 rankings;
- League paradigm is assumed to be PPR and 1QB (players superflex and/or 2QB leagues would likely have some divergence from those I’ve selected);
- Opinions on players are my own; and finally,
- Exact player values are always going to be dependent on individual leagues and owners, and may not be consistent with the assertions provided herein.
With that said, let’s continue with the AFC West! Players will be profiled individually, with a tabulated summary of all 12 provided at the article’s conclusion.
Denver Broncos
Buy: Courtland Sutton, WR (ADP = 62.2, Rank = 62.1)
I view Sutton similarly to how I viewed Michael Pittman on the Colts. Both are big-bodied receivers who broke out in their sophomore years despite decidedly shaky play under center. But while I considered Pittman as “hold,” I like Sutton as a “buy” for one principal distinction – the Colt is being selected as the WR16 per ADP, while the Bronco is farther down at WR31.
It’s true Pittman has a more direct path towards targets, but with Russell Wilson now in town as the metaphorical rising tide to lift all boats, Sutton’s targets should be of higher quality. Continuing, and throwing out an injury-ruined 2020 campaign where he didn’t even make it through a full game, Sutton has produced when healthy, with a fine three-year line of 172-2,592-12 in spite of the noted shortcomings at quarterback. One year further removed from his injury, I view Sutton as a player who will not only outplay his current ADP, but will also outplay teammate Jerry Jeudy who is being selected as the WR25. For these reasons, he’s a strong “buy.”
Sell: Javonte Williams, RB (ADP = 8.5, Rank = 11.8)
“I don’t hate the player, I hate the ADP.”
I don’t think there’s any other phrase that could better describe my feelings on the Broncos’ second-year ball carrier. As a rookie he had a very good year, showing utilization and efficiency both on the ground and through the air en route to a finish as the PPR RB17. This led to an off-season hype train that saw the youngster rise as high as the RB3 with an overall ADP of 6.8, and in truth this number has barely dropped despite the recent re-signing of backfield mate Melvin Gordon.
To me, this is an important distinction, as it signified that the Denver coaching staff is likely envisioning another committee approach at running back, and given that Gordon was every bit as good as Williams in 2021 (and even ever so slightly more efficient), there’s no solid reason to change up the approach (notably in both college and his rookie year in the NFL, Williams has always functioned in a backfield committee). Given this, it seems probable Williams’ fantasy value will not match his dynasty value, and there are players being selected behind him who appear likely to put up better seasons. For some examples, and using data from DLF’s Dynasty Trade Analyzer, you could get the following theoretical returns for Williams:
- Williams for Joe Mixon and one of Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Williams or Darnell Mooney
- Williams for Austin Ekeler and one of Damien Harris or Dalton Schultz
- Williams for Dalvin Cook and one of Mike Williams, Mooney, Darren Waller, AJ Dillon, or Sutton
- Williams for Derrick Henry and one of Waller, Dillon, TJ Hockenson, Kyler Murray or Joe Burrow
Again, there is nothing wrong with holding onto Williams and riding out what should be a fine career. Rather, my point here is striking while the iron is hot could make your starting roster stronger.
Hold: Tim Patrick, WR (ADP = 168.8, Rank = 191.4)
If queried on who was the Broncos’ leader for both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns over the past two years, would you have guessed Patrick? Indeed, Patrick functioned as the secondary target both years, enabling him to compile an aggregate line of 104-1,476-11 line. In doing this he was actually more efficient at 9.0 YPT than teammates Sutton (8.1 YPT) and Jeudy (7.8 YPT), along with having a significantly better nose for the end zone. Patrick was paid in the off-season (three years, $34 million) and seems likely to function as a top-three target for Wilson. Despite this he’s only being selected, on average, as the WR75 by ADP, which he appears likely to eclipse and then perhaps increase his dynasty value. As such he makes a sensible “hold,” if not a “buy” candidate.
Kansas City Chiefs
Buy: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR (ADP = 68.8, Rank = 82.3)
Smith-Schuster has had something of a quixotic career to date, with a rookie season breakout (58-917-7) followed by a sophomore explosion (111-1,426-7). From there his volume fell precipitously in an injury-marred third season (42-552-3), and while it returned in year four (97-831-9) his efficiency cratered to a mere 6.5 YPT. His fifth year in the league in 2021 was essentially a wash, with 12 missed games due to injury.
Smith-Schuster clearly has flaws to his game and likely won’t return to his previous highs, but notably three of five years have yielded fantasy finishes as the PPR WR22 or better, with one WR1 tier finish. He’s still only 25.5 years old, and is now being paired with arguably the best quarterback in the league, which should hopefully help his efficiency. Continuing, with Tyreek Hill moving on to Miami, Smith-Schuster could very well be the second target behind tight end Travis Kelce. With a status of a low-end WR3 per the ADP, I’d be willing to buy a potential bounce-back.
Sell: Travis Kelce, TE (ADP = 32.8, Rank = 51.9)
It’s inarguable that Kelce remained an elite fantasy asset in 2021, finishing the year as the PPR TE2, trailing only the Ravens’ Mark Andrews, and nearly 60 points clear of TE3 Dalton Schultz. However, there were some potential, if only minor, causes for concern. Despite playing in 16 contests, Kelce had his fewest targets, receptions, and yards since the 2017 season. His YPR dipped from 2020 (13.5 to 12.2), as did his YPT (9.8 to 8.4). This may not be a major cause for concern, but for a player who will turn 33 during the season, it’s notable. Much like Derrick Henry, Kelce may be a guy who retires on your roster, but selling now could yield players like George Kittle, Hockenson, or Waller plus an additional piece, while also *potentially* avoiding Kelce’s eventual age cliff.
Hold: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR (ADP = 74.5, Rank = 69.6)
In the summer through fall of 2020, CEH was a mainstay in the ADP range of 4.5-6.5 as one of dynasty’s most-valued assets. However, following two fairly pedestrian campaigns where he was unable to secure volume or goal line touches, and didn’t receive nearly the anticipated receiving work, he now finds himself as a high-end dynasty RB3.
While the Chiefs didn’t do anything to supplement the running back room via the NFL Draft, they did bring in the underwhelming Ronald Jones, who neither catches a preponderance of passes nor functions as a third-down running back. Jerick McKinnon was also re-signed, but he just turned 30 and hasn’t functioned as a high-volume player since 2017. While Jones and McKinnon aren’t world beaters, there is enough fluidity to this situation that I think CEH owners are best served riding it out and seeing how it shakes out. Given this, he’s a sensible hold in the hopes he leads the committee and rehabilitates his dynasty value.
Las Vegas Raiders
Buy: Hunter Renfrow, WR (ADP = 103.8, Rank = 110.6)
As I noted in my Raiders Dynasty Capsule in February, “When it comes to dynasty football, it’s easy to forget that, quite simply, this remains a weekly game and fantasy points win matchups. Enter Renfrow, who might just have been the most unlikely tier-one player at any position in 2021. However, as can be seen by his ADP as a WR4 in the seventh round, the majority of dynasty owners aren’t buying what Renfrow is selling.”
Since this point, a lot has happened. The Raiders traded for and extended star receiver for former collegiate teammate of quarterback Derrick Carr, Davante Adams. However, the also rewarded Renfrow with a new contract of his own, to the tune of two years and $32 million. Even with this, and while noting there may be some course correction in the July ADP, Renfrow has fallen from a standing of the WR38 by ADP (76.8 overall) to a status as a high-end WR5, as the WR52 overall. For that cost, he doesn’t need to be the alpha receiver on offense, and should continue to outperform his cost.
Sell: Josh Jacobs, RB (ADP = 67.0, Rank = 63.7)
Referring again to my February self, I viewed Jacobs as something of a hold at the time, noting “All told, his ADP valuation of the RB22 at the end of the fifth round seems fair. The Raiders have too many holes to fill to consider selecting a ball carrier with a premium draft pick, meaning Jacobs should be able to shoulder the load again in 2022. If the team picks up his fifth-year option, it could also be a show of faith in Jacobs that he’s part of the long-term plans. Given the aggregate of this information, Jacobs is a player I’m fairly agnostic towards – I wouldn’t be actively seeking to either buy or sell him, and if he’s on my team I’d be hoping for decent output as a boring RB2 or flex next season.”
Since then, the Raiders declined Jacobs’ fifth-year option and selected ball carrier Zamir White in the fourth round of the draft, and beat writers have speculated a bell-cow role is unlikely for the veteran running back. Despite this, his ADP has only fallen approximately eight spots, meaning value appears to have been retained. Given the totality of the writings on the wall, I’d now be looking to cash out.
Hold: Darren Waller, TE (ADP = 67.5, Rank = 76.1)
Referencing my former self one last time, “Waller is still just 29 years old and in the middle of a four-year contract that will keep him in Oakland through at least 2023. He’ll return next season as the likely target leader, even if the team brings in additional mouths to feed. After falling over a round since last January’s ADP, I’d be more likely to buy than sell at current cost.”
Since this point, Waller’s ADP has fallen nearly a round, likely due to the acquisition of Adams and perhaps the extension of Renfrow, and he very clearly will not be the likely target leader as I previously speculated. I find this notable, particularly in contrast to Renfrow who fell over two rounds in value. Given the lesser value fluctuation and also the need to see how the Raiders’ receiving pecking order is going to shake out, I now view Waller as more of a “hold” than a “buy.”
Los Angeles Chargers
Buy: Mike Williams, WR (ADP = 66.7, Rank = 76.1)
Williams’ meteoric rise in 2021 wasn’t completely out of nowhere, as he had previously shown an ability to score the ball (10 touchdowns in 2018) and accrue yardage (1,001 yards in 2019). Even his 2020 year, while something of a step back, was reasonable with a line of 48-756-5. Last season Williams was able to put it all together with a line of 76-1,146-9 while accruing a career-best 129 targets (his first season of > 90). The Chargers front office rightfully awarded the ascending veteran with a three-year contract worth $60 million, tying him to breakout superstar quarterback Justin Herbert for the foreseeable future.
The market does not yet appear to have caught up. Notably, Williams has been slowly rising from a recent nadir of an ADP of 84.0 in February, but is still not close to his pinnacle of 43.8 last October. Valued as a low-end WR3 by ADP despite his PPR WR14 finish last season, Williams represents a strong “buy” candidate.
Sell: Gerald Everett, TE (ADP = 191.8, Rank = 208.1)
I’ll be honest and say I don’t get the hype for Everett, and never truly have. This is a player who has never demanded more than 63 targets in any given season, and has yet to top 500 receiving yards or four touchdowns. Despite this, beat writers assert “he could be in for a career year.” To me, a more likely scenario would see him topping out as the team’s fourth target at best, and perhaps even fifth if 2021 third-round receiver Josh Palmer continues to grow. Admittedly, the Chargers’ fourth most targeted player last season was fellow tight end Jared Cook, who accrued 83 looks, but even while older, Cook’s caliber of play has far-exceeded anything Everett has shown. If you can capitalize on recent hype and get a low-end draft pick back, I think it’s worth pursuing.
Hold: Austin Ekeler, RB (ADP = 14.2, Rank = 19.9)
Ekeler finished the 2021 season as the PPR RB2, less than a point off of RB1 Jonathan Taylor’s per-game clip (Ekeler played in one fewer contest). In doing so, he put forward career bests in terms of carries, rushing yards, rushing scores, receiving scores (tied prior best), and total yards. He found something of a sweet spot to maintain his health moving forward, with just under 13 carries per game supplemented by 4.4 receptions, and will more than likely continue to function as the team’s goal line running back.
Despite having recently turned 27 years old, I believe Ekeler has a chance to continue to rise, especially during the season when he’s scoring points for your roster. A ceiling of a player like Christian McCaffrey (overall ADP of 7.3) wouldn’t be unreasonable, which is why Ekeler is a strong “hold” (if not a “buy”).
The tabulated list of the players discussed here is shown below.
| Conference | Team | Buy | Sell | Hold | ||||||
| Name | ADP | Rank | Name | ADP | Rank | Name | ADP | Rank | ||
| AFC West | Denver Broncos | Courtland Sutton | 62.2 | 62.1 | Javonte Williams | 8.5 | 11.8 | Tim Patrick | 168.8 | 191.4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 68.8 | 82.3 | Travis Kelce | 32.8 | 51.9 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 74.5 | 69.6 | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Hunter Renfrow | 103.8 | 110.6 | Josh Jacobs | 67.0 | 63.7 | Darren Waller | 67.5 | 76.1 | |
| Los Angeles Chargers | Mike Williams | 66.7 | 76.1 | Gerald Everett | 191.8 | 208.1 | Austin Ekeler | 14.2 | 19.9 | |
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