The Ask DLF Weekly Rundown
We do a weekly Ask DLF show every Tuesday at 9 PM Eastern on DLF’s YouTube Channel. Every week, we answer live dynasty questions and love doing it, especially with how interactive the live chat is. Of course, make sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel so you can be a part of this experience in the future.
However, the chat has become so active that we rarely actually answer all the questions in full detail. Still, we don’t want to let the people down, especially those who tuned into the live show. Therefore, we decided to do this article series, where we will provide written answers to some of the lengthier questions or the ones where we had to cut the answer short.
Let’s jump into this week’s first question!
Trogdor – Hey guys, how do you see Terry McLaurin re-signing affecting Jahan Dotson’s value?
I actually recorded a short video on my own YouTube channel on the McLaurin extension, and I discussed it further on Ask DLF. McLaurin signed a three-year deal worth $71 million that adds to his rookie deal, locking him in through 2025. It’s unclear exactly what the guarantee structure is, but I doubt Washington can escape this deal until after 2024.
Therefore, Dotson lost the ability to become the top receiver in Washington, at least in the short term. I don’t see a universe where he overtakes McLaurin anytime soon, as he isn’t an alpha-type prospect. As a result, I lowered Dotson from WR36 to WR41 in my rankings, although that still makes him a value compared to his June DLF ADP of WR44. Unfortunately, it will be tough for Dotson to provide consistent fantasy value with Carson Wentz as his quarterback, so he’s now relying on a 2023 quarterback upgrade.
Nicholas J. – What WR range would you feel comfortable taking Calvin Ridley in a startup?
Ridley is a bizarre dynasty asset.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He started his career by improving throughout his first three seasons, eventually putting together a monster 2020 performance. He also improved in yards/target each year, even though Matt Ryan started to decline.
However, everything fell apart in 2021. He looked awful in the five games he played, dropping to an abysmal 5.4 yards/target with only 56.2 yards/game. Additionally, he only managed to catch 59.6% of his targets and scored just two touchdowns on 52 targets. After five games, he walked away from the NFL for mental health reasons and missed the remainder of the season.
During the off-season, the NFL indefinitely suspended Ridley for betting on NFL games during the season. It’s unclear how the betting, his mental health, and his poor 2021 play tie together, but he won’t see the field again until 2023. As most of you know, Ridley was an older rookie, so he turns 28 years old in December, putting him beyond the dynasty age cliff by the time he returns.
The Falcons may also trade him as his fifth-year option tolled from 2022 to 2023, and he’s owed $11.12 million for 2023. The Eagles were apparently in on Ridley before this suspension, and Ridley’s current price pales in comparison to the explosion in the wide receiver market this off-season. Therefore, I’m not sure where Ridley will play, although he will have a trade market with his contract.
Right now, Ridley seems like a bargain in DLF’s ADP data, as he’s the WR66 and 141.38 overall. I’m not overly high on him, but I rank him about 20 overall spots higher and WR58. So I’m okay with paying any future third-round rookie pick for him or drafting him at his current cost.
Kevin – When are we done holding Jordan Love in dynasty superflex?
As I mentioned on the show, I’m unlikely to flat-out cut Love in a dynasty superflex league anytime soon. The Packers extended Aaron Rodgers’s contract this off-season, locking him in through the 2026 season. At the very least, they cannot even begin to move on from that deal until after the 2023 season and more likely after the 2024 season.
Therefore, Rodgers will remain in Green Bay through the end of Love’s rookie deal, whether the Packers pick up his fully-guaranteed 2024 fifth-year option or not. Additionally, there’s almost no way the Packers can commit to Love’s fifth-year option, which will cost around $20 million. Unless Rodgers retires, Love will find himself on another NFL team by 2024, either via free agency or via trade.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that Love will get a clear chance at a starting job. But for now, he’s worth holding in case Rodgers suffers an injury or randomly retires. He’s only 23 years old, younger than incoming rookie Kenny Pickett, so he has plenty of time to develop. I probably wouldn’t consider cutting Love in superflex leagues until he flops in a new location.
Schultz328 – 12-team SF PPR start 13. DK Metcalf or Skyy Moore + 2023 first
I usually pick at least one trade for this article to highlight the DLF Trade Analyzer.
I’m glad I picked this trade, as the analyzer sees it as a relatively even deal. However, I definitely disagree, as I would easily prefer the Metcalf side. I believe that Metcalf’s value is currently suppressed by Seattle’s quarterback situation, which will not last long-term. They could still acquire Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo for 2022, representing a massive upgrade over Drew Lock or Geno Smith.
However, even if they don’t acquire a replacement quarterback for this year, it’s impossible to deny Metcalf’s talent and upside.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
He finished as WR6 in 2020, followed by WR15 in 2021, continuing to produce even after Seattle’s offense fell apart last year. He’s also never missed a game in his three-year NFL career, making him durable and reliable.
Also, the Seahawks and Metcalf have not yet agreed on a new contract, and he could easily find himself traded to a new destination either this off-season or next off-season. He’s only 24 years old, turning 25 in December, so he has plenty of time to climb the dynasty value curve. If Metcalf found himself on the Packers or Chiefs, he’d almost immediately become a top-five dynasty wide receiver, like he was last off-season. Either way, I can’t give up Metcalf for only a 2023 first-rounder and Moore, even if the trade analyzer would pick that side.
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