Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Kyren Williams, RB LAR
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit.
Prior to the NFL Combine, some fantasy analysts (me, it was me okay!) were touting Kyren Williams as a player to target in the second round of your rookie drafts. But after a very bad combine, and after he slipped in the NFL Draft, what does the future hold for Williams?
Name: Kyren Williams
Position: Running Back
Pro Team: Los Angeles Rams
College Team: Notre Dame
Draft Status: 164th overall, fifth round
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
Despite what the physical testing may say (we’ll get to that in a minute), Williams looks the part when on the field. This might be the best run of the entire 2021 college football season.
Kyren Williams' 82.1 PFF Grade in 2021 is the highest by a Notre Dame RB since 2014 ☘️pic.twitter.com/YT5BfWACKu
— PFF College (@PFF_College) January 29, 2022
Here he shows off his vision, and ability to run through tackles.
my favorite offensive player in the #2022NFLDraft class kyren williams pic.twitter.com/WtiMXg7p3E
— Ray G (@RayGQue) January 26, 2022
The below tweet shows off his full skill-set. Again, he’s an excellent receiving back, an excellent blocker, and a tough runner.
If you need a 3rd down RB, Notre Dame's Kyren Williams is your guy. Best pass blocking RB I've ever scouted, extremely reliable hands. He's my RB4 at the moment.
NFL Comp: James White
Consensus Rank: 77 (Mid 3rd) pic.twitter.com/s7aUNxMesS— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) February 18, 2022
If you want full highlight videos, don’t forget to check out the NFL Draft Prospect Videos available to you as a DLF subscriber.
COMBINE REVIEW
To say that Williams had a disappointing NFL Combine does not do the word “disappointment” justice. Williams checked in way too small, undersized, with poor burst and explosion.
If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic, two of the players Williams compares to physically – Myles Gaskin and Theo Riddick – each had one season of RB10 (points per game) production.
STRENGTHS
- Pass catching
- Pass blocking
- Tough runner despite his size
WEAKNESSES
- Small
- Slow
- Broken foot
OPPORTUNITIES
Though he may be stuck behind Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson – at least entering OTAs – Williams’ skill-set is one that lends itself to fantasy production, even if on a limited snap count. Because he’s a good pass blocker, and pass catcher, he’s perfect for a third-down role, which is usually a down when running backs see targets.
If Williams can carve out a role in 2022, he could find himself as the backup running back in 2023 with Henderson entering free agency after this season. While Williams is starting from behind with a broken foot, Henderson hasn’t been the most durable player during his three seasons so an opportunity could arise once the season starts for Williams to pass him on the depth chart.
THREATS
Making the roster is probably the biggest threat. As a fifth-rounder nothing is guaranteed. And now that Williams is going to be out of action for a while, he could find the climb too steep to ascend on the depth chart.
Rams’ HC Sean McVay said rookie RB Kyren Williams, a fifth-round pick from Notre Dame, underwent surgery on the foot he broke during practice last week. He is expected to return during training camp.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) June 7, 2022
Even if Williams makes it back in enough time to battle for the RB3 role, but struggles with the playbook or in practice, the Rams have such a minimal investment in him that they could easily decide to just move on. That is unlikely, as the Rams fill a good bit of their rosters with later-round draft picks since they trade first-rounders like it’s the first day of a league rollover on MFL.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
A broken foot is going to hamper any short-term hopes we might have had for Williams. He already had multiple negative indicators – being a poor athlete, with poor draft capital to overcome – and being injured during his maiden OTAs is not going to help his cause. But assuming Williams can get back on the field healthy there’s no reason he can’t be a valuable member of the Rams roster, even if his fantasy impact will likely be muted as a rookie.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Betting on fifth-round rookies to have any long-term fantasy or NFL success is a losing proposition. That said, if I had to bet on a late-round running back who could end up being a fantasy asset, I would bet on Williams. Though he’s undersized he’s a tough runner, and his receiving ability should allow him to provide some better-than-expected fantasy weeks. It’s unlikely he’ll ever be a starter in the NFL, but that’s not to say her can’t be a spot starter when the starting back is forced to miss time.
There’s no reason to think that Williams can’t give you at least one season of fantasy production in the range of a Javorius Allen or Theo Riddick-like player. The most important thing to remember is that if he does “hit” at any point, and his value increases you should immediately cash out on him, because as Allen and Riddick showed that fantasy production for this type of player is usually fleeting.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
Listening to the Ross Tucker podcast the other day, guest Greg Cosell compared Williams to James White. The more I think about that comparison, the more it makes sense. Like Williams, White was a late-round draft pick (fourth round), who is limited physically but has a skill-set that could lead to NFL and fantasy relevancy. White has built an NFL career off of being a good pass blocker, and a fantasy career off being an excellent receiving back.
Williams is also a tough runner, despite being undersized, and during his last two years at Notre Dame showed the ability to carry a large workload. He exceeded the baseline threshold in market share in rushing yards, while crushing the baseline as a receiver.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
In May 2022 superflex mock drafts, Williams is the RB14 with an overall ADP of 40.30, which means as long as you have a fourth-round rookie pick, you can acquire him for your roster.
As the RB14 of the class, he’s being drafted right before pure ‘wish and hope’ players Isiah Pacheco, Snoop Conner and after runners like Hassan Haskins, who if you squint just so might appear to have clearer paths to larger workloads. This ADP doesn’t account for the foot injury so if you are drafting today you can certainly get Williams even later in drafts. I prefer Williams (and really any running back) to any wide receivers being drafted in this part of rookie drafts.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Pivoting Away from Jonathan Taylor - August 29, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Kyle Pitts, Brock Purdy and Roster Construction - August 22, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Late-Round Stashes and More - August 15, 2023
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit.
Prior to the NFL Combine, some fantasy analysts (me, it was me okay!) were touting Kyren Williams as a player to target in the second round of your rookie drafts. But after a very bad combine, and after he slipped in the NFL Draft, what does the future hold for Williams?
Name: Kyren Williams
Position: Running Back
Pro Team: Los Angeles Rams
College Team: Notre Dame
Draft Status: 164th overall, fifth round
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
Despite what the physical testing may say (we’ll get to that in a minute), Williams looks the part when on the field. This might be the best run of the entire 2021 college football season.
Kyren Williams' 82.1 PFF Grade in 2021 is the highest by a Notre Dame RB since 2014 ☘️pic.twitter.com/YT5BfWACKu
— PFF College (@PFF_College) January 29, 2022
Here he shows off his vision, and ability to run through tackles.
my favorite offensive player in the #2022NFLDraft class kyren williams pic.twitter.com/WtiMXg7p3E
— Ray G (@RayGQue) January 26, 2022
The below tweet shows off his full skill-set. Again, he’s an excellent receiving back, an excellent blocker, and a tough runner.
If you need a 3rd down RB, Notre Dame's Kyren Williams is your guy. Best pass blocking RB I've ever scouted, extremely reliable hands. He's my RB4 at the moment.
NFL Comp: James White
Consensus Rank: 77 (Mid 3rd) pic.twitter.com/s7aUNxMesS— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) February 18, 2022
If you want full highlight videos, don’t forget to check out the NFL Draft Prospect Videos available to you as a DLF subscriber.
COMBINE REVIEW
To say that Williams had a disappointing NFL Combine does not do the word “disappointment” justice. Williams checked in way too small, undersized, with poor burst and explosion.
If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic, two of the players Williams compares to physically – Myles Gaskin and Theo Riddick – each had one season of RB10 (points per game) production.
STRENGTHS
- Pass catching
- Pass blocking
- Tough runner despite his size
WEAKNESSES
- Small
- Slow
- Broken foot
OPPORTUNITIES
Though he may be stuck behind Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson – at least entering OTAs – Williams’ skill-set is one that lends itself to fantasy production, even if on a limited snap count. Because he’s a good pass blocker, and pass catcher, he’s perfect for a third-down role, which is usually a down when running backs see targets.
If Williams can carve out a role in 2022, he could find himself as the backup running back in 2023 with Henderson entering free agency after this season. While Williams is starting from behind with a broken foot, Henderson hasn’t been the most durable player during his three seasons so an opportunity could arise once the season starts for Williams to pass him on the depth chart.
THREATS
Making the roster is probably the biggest threat. As a fifth-rounder nothing is guaranteed. And now that Williams is going to be out of action for a while, he could find the climb too steep to ascend on the depth chart.
Rams’ HC Sean McVay said rookie RB Kyren Williams, a fifth-round pick from Notre Dame, underwent surgery on the foot he broke during practice last week. He is expected to return during training camp.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) June 7, 2022
Even if Williams makes it back in enough time to battle for the RB3 role, but struggles with the playbook or in practice, the Rams have such a minimal investment in him that they could easily decide to just move on. That is unlikely, as the Rams fill a good bit of their rosters with later-round draft picks since they trade first-rounders like it’s the first day of a league rollover on MFL.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
A broken foot is going to hamper any short-term hopes we might have had for Williams. He already had multiple negative indicators – being a poor athlete, with poor draft capital to overcome – and being injured during his maiden OTAs is not going to help his cause. But assuming Williams can get back on the field healthy there’s no reason he can’t be a valuable member of the Rams roster, even if his fantasy impact will likely be muted as a rookie.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Betting on fifth-round rookies to have any long-term fantasy or NFL success is a losing proposition. That said, if I had to bet on a late-round running back who could end up being a fantasy asset, I would bet on Williams. Though he’s undersized he’s a tough runner, and his receiving ability should allow him to provide some better-than-expected fantasy weeks. It’s unlikely he’ll ever be a starter in the NFL, but that’s not to say her can’t be a spot starter when the starting back is forced to miss time.
There’s no reason to think that Williams can’t give you at least one season of fantasy production in the range of a Javorius Allen or Theo Riddick-like player. The most important thing to remember is that if he does “hit” at any point, and his value increases you should immediately cash out on him, because as Allen and Riddick showed that fantasy production for this type of player is usually fleeting.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
Listening to the Ross Tucker podcast the other day, guest Greg Cosell compared Williams to James White. The more I think about that comparison, the more it makes sense. Like Williams, White was a late-round draft pick (fourth round), who is limited physically but has a skill-set that could lead to NFL and fantasy relevancy. White has built an NFL career off of being a good pass blocker, and a fantasy career off being an excellent receiving back.
Williams is also a tough runner, despite being undersized, and during his last two years at Notre Dame showed the ability to carry a large workload. He exceeded the baseline threshold in market share in rushing yards, while crushing the baseline as a receiver.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
In May 2022 superflex mock drafts, Williams is the RB14 with an overall ADP of 40.30, which means as long as you have a fourth-round rookie pick, you can acquire him for your roster.
As the RB14 of the class, he’s being drafted right before pure ‘wish and hope’ players Isiah Pacheco, Snoop Conner and after runners like Hassan Haskins, who if you squint just so might appear to have clearer paths to larger workloads. This ADP doesn’t account for the foot injury so if you are drafting today you can certainly get Williams even later in drafts. I prefer Williams (and really any running back) to any wide receivers being drafted in this part of rookie drafts.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Pivoting Away from Jonathan Taylor - August 29, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Kyle Pitts, Brock Purdy and Roster Construction - August 22, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Late-Round Stashes and More - August 15, 2023
