Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Riser: Dameon Pierce, RB HOU
Summer and the off-season are upon us. As dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Risers and Fallers series, we break down some of the fantasy-relevant dynasty players, including rookies, and look at their values while providing actionable advice on what to do with them.
Dameon Pierce, RB HOU (January Rookie Rank=31.6, Current Rank=18.13)
Pierce has seen a nice little spike in value since the beginning of the year. The trend is a complete inverse of last week’s subject Isaiah Spiller. Spiller still has a ton of upside but was surpassed by Pierce in the rankings back in May.
Data Courtesy of DLF Dynasty Rankings History Comparison App.
Pierce has cracked the top five in positional rankings over on DLF and is expert ranker Ken Kelly’s number three running back in this class. Pierce has seen his stock climb largely due to the landing spot. His draft capital (fourth round, 107th overall) is so-so but not worthy of solidifying a starting spot.
Data Courtesy of DLF Rookie Rankings.
Kyren Williams and Isaish Spiller are two of the running backs who dropped in the rankings to make room for Florida grad Pierce. Here is a look at all of the current rookie running back rankings. The reason the landing spot was mentioned as a reason for Pierce’s ascension in the ranks can be found in the comments of some of the rankers.
Shane Hallam notes that “Pierce is a tough inside runner who could win the Texans job and get a big role”. Jeff Haverlack, who has Pierce ranked fourth, echoes that sentiment and states simply that Pierce is “going to have a better NFL career than college. Great situation.”
Chomping at the Bit
A lot of the knock on the former Gator has been his lack of touches in college. We first must ask ourselves, was that the result of the player not being good enough to earn touches or the team and coaching staff being so poor as to know use said player properly? We are banking on the latter.
If you read Peter Lawrence’s prospect profile on Pierce back in April, you would have found this nugget from Pro Football Focus about how good his senior season was.
Dameon Pierce is primed to take a big CHOMP out of the NFL 🐊 pic.twitter.com/udNvyDj2Jo
— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 1, 2022
It was a special senior season in terms of touchdowns scored for the 22-year-old. Pierce managed to find pay dirt 16 times on just 119 touches. This equates to one touchdown every 7.44 times he handled the pigskin. To put that in perspective, the last running back to win the Heisman Trophy was Derrick Henry in 2015. He scored 28 touchdowns that year but required 406 touches to do it. That equates to a touchdown every 14.5 plays from scrimmage.
Here are all of the numbers from college for Pierce – a major talking point for fantasy managers.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
We of course are not comparing the two SEC backs, but simply stating that Pierce’s touchdown numbers in 2021 were impressive. One could argue that the lack of touches in college could lead to a longer, healthier NFL career. You can see by the number of games played that the four-star recruit stayed healthy throughout his collegiate career.
Pierce’s ADP value has been rising faster than the rankings have and the Houston rookie finds himself ahead of Spiller there as well. This trend will likely continue through the off-season as draft data and ADP data continues to evolve and roll in.
Pierce is going off the board in the same vicinity as other running backs with bits of upside such as James Robinson and Devin Singletary.
In terms of playing style, the bruising back is not afraid to lower his shoulder and gain yardage after contact. Pierce also made some nice plays made in the passing game in 2021 as evidenced by the highlights below.
The 5’10”, 212-pound back should get the opportunity he has been waiting for to showcase his talents in more of a full-time role in Houston in 2022. More on that next.
Carpe Diem
The Florida Gator alum has the opportunity to seize the day and the backfield in Houston. The only thing standing in the way is an ageless wonder in Rex Burkhead and another back two years removed from a major Achilles injury in Marlon Mack. According to Draft Sharks, Mack has an 84% chance of missing time in 2022.
Houston is going to want to improve on their league-worst rushing offense from 2021. Drafting the four-start recruit was step one in that process. The Texans have last had a 1,000-yard rusher when Carlos Hyde barely managed the feat in 2019 with 1,070 yards.
Lovie Smith is now the new head coach and has brought in Pep Hamilton to run the offense. The duo has a history together from their days in Chicago. Hamilton is an “offensive coach with a defensive mentality” according to the newly appointed Smith.
Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.
Looking at the results for Lovie Smith in the coaching history app above, we see that he is a fantasy-friendly running back coach. Be it Thomas Jones, Matt Forte, or Doug Martin, the backs see plenty of run in a Smith-coached team.
The veteran head coach is also not afraid to feature a rookie running back, evidenced by the RB2 finish by Matt Forte in 2008. In 2015, there was enough room for two running backs to succeed as Doug Martin finished as the RB4 and Charles Sims was the RB16.
Arrow Pointing Up?
The offense as a whole should be better in 2022. Houston improved the offensive line by selecting guard Kenyon Green from Texas A & M with the 15th overall pick in April. They also added wide receiver John Metchie from Alabama with the 44th pick. Both players should start and make an impact right away.
Brandin Cooks provides a steady veteran presence and Davis Mills, Nico Collins, and Brevin Jordan now have a year of experience in the league under their respective belts.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
Mark Ingram and Rex Burkhead were able to produce a couple of solid performances in 2021 despite the team being generally awful. A stable head coach and a somewhat good overhaul of the roster should only help to improve the situation in 2022.
Conclusion/Course of Action
If Dameon Pierce can run away with the job in mini camp and training camp, then he is a dart throw that will pay off large dividends, especially for those who drafted the rookie back in March. He has seen a significant spike in ADP value.
Data Courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
I love the situation and am buying here.
Pierce is currently being drafted as the RB38. There is too much upside here to ignore and you can see a great return on a small investment, even in year one with Lovie Smith’s willingness to feature rookies. Not many head coaches are as willing to insert first-year players into their offense.
Granted, Matt Forte was a special player, but we could have a diamond in the rough with Pierce here. With the 121st pick in a startup draft, it is a shot worth taking.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
- 2025 Dynasty Rookie Early Look Recap - February 7, 2025
- 2024 Division Buy/Sell/Hold Recap - August 26, 2024
- 2024 Navigating Dynasty Rookie Drafts Recap - August 23, 2024
