Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Jalen Tolbert, WR DAL

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit.

Name: Jalen Tolbert

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Dallas Cowboys

College Team: South Alabama Jaguars

Draft Status: Round three, 88th overall

Video Highlights

Combine Review

Tolbert’s Scouting Combine is the classic story of being good but not great in any area. He’s got good size, good athleticism, good technique, just nothing is great to elite. There isn’t anything necessarily wrong with that, it’s still favorable for him to be good in all areas instead of bad, it would just be nice if Tolbert was elite at something so that he could hang his hat on it.

What actually separates Tolbert is his work ethic and determination which unfortunately can’t be measured, so it’s hard to quantify how much that impacts his ability to produce in the NFL

Strengths

• Twitchy and sudden off the line, creating separation.
• Able to manipulate opposing corners with strong footwork.
• Long arms and big hands for a big catch radius.
• Great body control and ball tracking.
• Good long speed.

Weaknesses

• Could improve his change of direction speed in routes.
• Should use more physicality when it’s needed.
• Has the occasional focus drop.
• Played against lesser competition more often than not.

Opportunities

Landing on a high-octane passing offense like the Cowboys while presumed starter Michael Gallup is still recovering from a torn ACL and may not be ready for the start of the season means there is a golden opportunity at Tolbert’s feet. Dallas is also a team that loves to run 11 personnel (67% of the time according to sharpfootballstats.com) in which there are three wide receivers on the field so there are plenty of opportunities available. It’s easy to see how Tolbert has a chance for immediate and future opportunity.

Threats

With CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup penciled in as starters when healthy, James Washington is really the only competition in Tolbert’s way as after him the other wide receivers on the roster are Noah Brown (a seventh-round draft pick from 2017 who has yet to show much of anything) and Simi Fehoko (a fifth-round pick from last year who only played special teams as a rookie).

With that in mind, Tolbert should have a great chance of being a day one starter for the Cowboys. Also, in the event that Tolbert is unable to beat out Washington to start the season, because the Cowboys employ 11 personnel at a high percentage as I mentioned before, Tolbert should still see plenty of playing time. Additionally, if he does beat out Washington, even when Gallup returns from injury, Tolbert will have plenty of playing time as he and Gallup can play outside with Lamb in the slot.

Short-Term Expectations

When analyzing Tolbert’s profile and situation, it’s fair to think he could have some fantasy impact to start the year. It likely won’t be consistent – he is a rookie after all. But when you’re playing in a high-scoring offense with a top-tier quarterback like Tolbert will be doing in Dallas, it should be expected for him to have some fantasy viable weeks.

I believe that Tolbert being a weekly flex consideration should be the realistic expectation. You might find it hard to pull the trigger on putting him in your lineups but you’re going to have to at least think about it and that’s more than you can say for a lot of rookies.

Long-Term Expectations

A player with a great college production profile like Tolbert on a team like Dallas which has a top-tier offense makes me want to believe that he has the ability to be a fantasy WR2. But knowing that Tolbert is coming from a small school and isn’t really a dynamic playmaker despite his college production means I believe his realistic outcome is being a WR3/flex player – which is still a worthwhile player to have on your teams. Also, with Dallas looking like a team that is set to be great offensively for years to come with Dak Prescott at the helm, I have no worries about Tolbert’s situation getting worse any time soon.

NFL Player Comparison

Tolbert reminds me of Adam Thielen: a small school prospect with good but not great size and athleticism who always finds a way to get open and make difficult catches look routine. Also, neither Tolbert nor Thielen have the flashy dynamic playmaking ability of a lot of top wide receivers. Like Thielen, Tolbert will need to work to refine his technique to consistently win in the NFL.

Projected Rookie Draft Range

When looking at DLF’s Superflex Rookie Draft ADP from April to May, Tolbert has risen from WR14/29th overall to WR13/24th overall. Between my rookie drafts, I’ve taken Tolbert anywhere from 2.08 to 3.01 and he is my WR12 in the class so I am slightly ahead of consensus. For me, he falls into a large tier of players including the third round quarterbacks, the other lesser day two wide receivers of Wan’Dale Robinson and Alec Pierce, and the “maybe they get a shot” running backs of Isaiah Spiller, Zamir White, Dameon Pierce, Brian Robinson, and Tyler Allgeier.

This is where a lot of dynasty philosophy will come into play. I tend to value the quarterbacks who in my opinion have more potential dynasty value and players like Tolbert who as stated before, I believe have a chance to be fantasy relevant right away and in the future. Some will gravitate towards the running backs because they can give you a quick return on your investment if they find playing time and you’re able to trade them away, which is exactly how I am approaching all of the ones I mentioned above as I don’t believe any from that group have a particularly high fantasy football ceiling.

That’s why I prefer Tolbert who I think has the same potential for quick return on your investment from immediate playing time but also has a fantasy football ceiling that I can get excited about.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Jalen Tolbert, WR DAL