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Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Christian Watson, WR GB

What will Aaron Rodgers’ newest outside weapon offer your dynasty teams?

Christian Watson

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit.

Name: Christian Watson

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Green Bay Packers

College Team: North Dakota State

Draft Status: Round two, 34th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

STRENGTHS

  • Has tremendous size-adjusted speed
  • Dangerous after the catch
  • Good change of direction skills for his size
  • Hands are strong at the catch point
  • A versatile receiver who can be used on short, intermediate, and deep routes
  • Knows how to attack a defensive back’s leverage

WEAKNESSES

  • Not consistent when it comes to creating separation off his breaks
  • Needs to work on selling routes
  • Footwork can get a little choppy before the break
  • Ball skills are below average for his size

OPPORTUNITIES

Watson will get the opportunity to play with Aaron Rodgers in one of the most efficient passing offenses in the NFL. Davante Adams is no longer with the team and the Packers now have some ambiguity at wide receiver. This will allow Watson to take over as the team’s alpha wide receiver.

Somebody on this offense must step up. There will be a pass-catcher who will lead the team in targets and that could well be Watson. He’s in a spot where he could develop into one of the top options in the team’s passing game.

With him getting the opportunity to compete for a starting role in one of the most lucrative offenses for a wide receiver, we could see Watson’s dynasty stock shoot to the moon. We have seen wide receivers require a few years of development before they turn into the team’s target hog. It seems that Rodgers needs to build a rapport with his targets. This could be refreshing, considering the lights might turn on for Watson a few years down the road. Even if he doesn’t hit as a rookie, dynasty gamers will still have some optimism going into his second year.

THREATS

Watson will need to make a major leap from playing at the FCS level to the NFL. He has some good traits in his game, but he has limited experience playing against top-tier competition. There’s a chance he might take some extra time to develop. The extra time might hinder his ability to his potential. The team could get impatient and start bringing in other wide receivers for him to compete against. The team did back up the Brinks truck to re-sign Aaron Rodgers and getting him premium passing targets has to be a major emphasis in their roster construction going forward.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Dynasty gamers should expect Watson to slowly get worked into the offensive game plan. He should flash his talent randomly throughout the season. I would be worried if he’s a healthy scratch during his rookie year as it would be a telling sign that he isn’t developing quickly enough to see the field.

The wide receiver depth chart is ambiguous, and he has the talent to be a full-time starter early in his career. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he instantly becomes a key piece in the offense as soon as his rookie season.

If you want to bet on what happens this season. More than likely, he gets integrated into the team’s system. His snap share increases throughout his first season as we watch him make some big plays randomly throughout the year.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Watson’s long-term player outlook is very fascinating because he’s one of the few players who could develop into one of the top wide receivers in the league or be someone who burns a hole through our dynasty rosters.

First off, he has the chance to transition into the alpha wide receiver for one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. If he consistently gets open, he will consistently see accurate targets come his way. His speed will allow him to make big plays after the catch. With that being said, Watson is a threat to do big things in fantasy if everything goes according to plan.

The downside could be very grim. If he struggles to refine his skill sets, then we could see him struggle to carve out a key role in the offense. The team might want to add more talent to the receiving corps if the team feels like their wide receiver depth chart is not up to par. The Packers currently have Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins as the veterans on the roster. We could see them bring in more receivers in the next couple of years to reset the clock at the position. The added competition could be a major threat to his long-term player value if he’s not hitting his upside.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Ironically, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is almost identical in terms of athleticism when compared to Watson. They are both very close in BMI and almost neck and neck in the 40-yard dash where Valdes Scantling ran a 4.37 compared to Watson’s 4.36. Watson accelerates and gets to top speed much quicker than Valdes-Scantling. He also has better change-of-direction skills.

When it comes to route running, there are only slight comparisons. Both players excel at getting downfield and running past defenders due to their speed. Watson is less stiff and can break off routes better.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

According to DLF’s May Rookie ADP, Watson is currently being drafted in the latter part of the first round with an 8.90 average draft position. He is being valued as the WR7. Dynasty gamers are drawing straws on their favorite speculative wide receiver in the back end of the first round. The other wide receivers to note in this range are George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, Skyy Moore, and Chris Olave. This group of wide receivers is jockeying for position in the first round of many rookie drafts.

There are times when Watson will fall out of the first round, but he rarely gets selected past the 2.01-2.03 range of drafts. It’s even rarer to see him get selected over the top wide receivers like Treylon Burks, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Jameson Williams. There is one draft mixed into DLF’s ADP that had Watson being selected at the 1.03.

I think the backend of the first round is a fair price tag for Watson. He’s a speculative wide receiver asset who has good draft capital and is playing in one of the best situations in football. That alone is going to elevate his price tag. Throw in his athletic metrics and the hype from the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine and you have a player who’s going to be highly coveted on the market in dynasty.

Latest posts by Bruce Matson (see all)
Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Christian Watson, WR GB
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billjenn98
6 months ago

Bruce, love your insights!! Your work on Utube is a mainstay at home. Enjoyed the article, he fell to me at 2.06; what a shocker!!

BigDee
6 months ago

It’s being reported by WI sportingnews that the Packers are shopping for Veteran WR’s. They made offers for WR Keenan Allen – a 2023 2nd & 4th & 6th, WR Diontae Johnson – 2023 1st & 2nd and even made an offer for Julio Jones – 2 unknown 2023 picks. That seems like they’re not too interested in starting their new Rookies.

Kemp Moyer
Reply to  BigDee
6 months ago

Julio Jones is a free agent

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