Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: John Metchie, WR HOU
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit.
Name: John Metchie
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Houston Texans
College Team: Alabama
Draft Status: Round two, pick 44
Video Highlights
One game, in particular, stood out. In a 2021 contest, Metchie faced Arkansas and had a monster game. He put up ten receptions, 173 yards, and a touchdown, his best receiving yard mark of the 2021 season.
In that game, Metchie looked exactly as advertised. He was competent and did everything well, but he didn’t pop off the screen, even on his touchdown catch. As a side note, I couldn’t be more excited for Bryce Young to enter the 2023 NFL Draft. He’ll be one of those quarterback prospects we all want on our superflex dynasty rosters.
Combine/Pro Day Review
Metchie couldn’t participate in the NFL Combine, as he was still recovering from his torn ACL in the SEC Championship Game.
However, I’m not sure he would’ve run a blazing 40-yard dash time, and he’s not overly explosive given his smaller size. It doesn’t matter that much, as the Texans still selected him with the 44th overall pick in the second round. Therefore, the NFL wasn’t concerned about his lack of testing numbers, and the NFL Combine’s primary value is how it affects draft capital anyway.
Strengths
Metchie’s main strength is that he produced solid numbers at Alabama, despite the presence of other potent receiving weapons on the team.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He didn’t do much as a true freshman in 2019, as Jerry Jeudy, DeVonta Smith, Henry Ruggs, and Jaylen Waddle formed an impenetrable wide receiver room. However, he broke out in 2020, with 55 receptions for 916 yards and six touchdowns. He still had less than half of Smith’s production, but he became Alabama’s WR2 after Waddle’s injury.
But then, in 2021, Metchie had his more significant breakout. Transfer Jameson Williams had more receiving yards and touchdowns, but Metchie led the team in receptions. He also felt comfortable enough after his 2021 campaign to declare early for the NFL Draft, where he went in the second round. So those draft-related factors are also a big positive.
Weaknesses
Metchie’s analytical profile is his most considerable weakness.
Chart courtesy of DLF College Market Share App.
As you can see, he failed to exceed the baseline regression for yardage market share in either of his major college seasons. He had a 19.67% share in 2020 and 24.28% in 2021 in his age-20 and age-21 years. However, he wouldn’t be the first Alabama wide receiver to enter the NFL without impressive market share numbers, with Waddle and Ruggs as notable examples.
But, there’s a reason why Smith and Williams were first-round picks, and Metchie fell to the second round. When compared directly, those players far outproduced him on the same roster. Luckily, Metchie can still be a fantasy value even if he doesn’t reach the heights those two players could.
Opportunities
Assuming he’s healthy, I expect Metchie to become the Texans’ starting slot receiver immediately, with Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins as the two outside receivers. The Texans have no relevant wide receivers outside of that trio and no exciting tight ends beyond Brevin Jordan. They recently gave Cooks a contract extension, but that deal only locks him in through 2023 based on the dead cap.
Like at Alabama, I don’t see Metchie ever becoming the Texans’ WR1, as I doubt he’ll pass Cooks over the next two seasons. But I believe he could become the WR2 on the depth chart, complementing Cooks on the outside in two-WR sets and kicking into the slot in three-WR sets. He’s a better prospect and has superior draft capital to Collins, so he’s the favorite to win that competition for targets.
Threats
Metchie faces two main threats. The first is that Collins retains his job as the WR2 on the depth chart, preventing Metchie from producing any relevant fantasy numbers. I liked Collins in the 2021 draft process, and he flashed as a rookie. He caught 33 of 60 targets for 446 yards and a touchdown, finishing second on the team in targets, receptions, and yards. If Collins remains ahead of Metchie for all of 2022, Metchie’s dynasty value will significantly decline.
Additionally, the Texans’ poor quarterback situation is a short-term threat for Metchie. While Davis Mills had a fine rookie season, he only averaged 204.9 passing yards per game with just 16 touchdowns. He seems like a game manager type of quarterback, and I don’t want him as my quarterback for my fantasy wide receivers. If he has another decent season in 2022 and retains the starting job for 2023, it will not help Metchie long-term.
Short-Term Expectations
Unfortunately, I have almost zero expectations for Metchie in 2022. I didn’t rank him or Nico Collins in my initial redraft rankings, although I’d pick Metchie if forced to choose. Additionally, it’s unclear whether he will be completely ready after his ACL tear. Either way, unless Cooks suffers an injury, I think he’ll be the only relevant receiving option on the Texans’ roster. Metchie represents a long-term play, not a short-term option.
Long-Term Expectations
I think Metchie could develop into a solid NFL WR2, giving him potential fantasy WR3 upside if he eventually finds himself in a strong offense. I actually believe he will have a successful NFL career, even if he never becomes an exciting dynasty asset. Given his mix of floor and ceiling, he seems undervalued at his May DLF ADP of WR56 and 116.17 overall.
NFL Player Comparison
Metchie is a smaller wide receiver, although NFL teams have been more willing to draft players without massive size in recent years. He also doesn’t have blazing speed, winning instead with his route running. I suppose his NFL ceiling is probably similar to Robert Woods’ career, who is a similar size without much speed.
However, I don’t expect Metchie to be quite as reliable as Woods. I see some resemblances between Metchie and his college teammates Jeudy and Smith size-wise, but he doesn’t possess Jeudy’s technical skills or Smith’s explosiveness. If I had to choose one NFL player for a comparison, I would use Sterling Shepard’s career as a good median projection for Metchie. Shepard could never play as the Giants’ WR1, and he could play outside but played better in the slot. At times, he had fantasy value, but only when he had opportunities with at least decent quarterback play. That type of career sounds like what Metchie might have.
Projected Rookie Draft Range
Metchie is the 14th overall player and WR10 in DLF’s 1QB May rookie ADP. I rank him in the same spot, both overall and among wide receivers. However, I often find that he actually goes later in rookie drafts, behind day three running backs like Dameon Pierce and Isaiah Spiller. Therefore, if I can grab him a few picks later, I’m all in on Metchie as a rookie draft value, even though he doesn’t have a massive ceiling.
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