The Ask DLF Weekly Rundown
We do a weekly Ask DLF show every Tuesday at 9 PM Eastern on DLF’s YouTube Channel. Every week, we answer live dynasty questions and love doing it, especially with how interactive the live chat is. Of course, make sure to like the video and subscribe to the channel so you can be a part of this experience in the future.
However, the chat has become so active that we rarely actually answer all the questions in full detail. Still, we don’t want to let the people down, especially those who tuned into the live show. Therefore, we decided to do this article series, where we will provide written answers to some of the lengthier questions or the ones where we had to cut the answer short.
Let’s jump into this week’s first question!
E Wessel – Devin Duvernay worth trading away 2023 fourth?
I’m sure you’re wondering why I picked out this question. Duvernay is not a dynasty-relevant player. However, I often hear other analysts or dynasty managers say that fourth-round picks are irrelevant, whereas I definitely feel differently. Duvernay hasn’t done anything thus far in his NFL career in the Ravens’ run-heavy offense.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He made first-team All-Pro as a returner, but he has only 53 receptions for 473 yards and two touchdowns in 32 career games. Yes, the Ravens recently traded Marquise Brown to the Cardinals, but I doubt they enter the season with Rashod Bateman, Duvernay, and either James Proche or Tylan Wallace as their starting wide receivers. Instead, they may add a higher-profile veteran like Julio Jones or Will Fuller or even a lower-level player like TY Hilton.
Either way, Duvernay had zero value before the Brown trade, so I’d love to pick up a future fourth-rounder for him now. Those picks give you valuable assets to include as throw-ins on later deals or to package to move up in next year’s draft. You also never know who your leaguemates will pick, and sometimes you can find values even in the fourth round.
Gavin Grant – Big debate in my league: should SUS players be allowed in IR slots?
I haven’t heard this question in a while, but it’s a relatively straightforward answer. I never think suspended players should be allowed in IR slots. Fantasy platforms created IR slots to help managers deal with injuries, not to cover for suspended players. Most platforms default to not having suspended players be IR eligible, but they also allow the commissioner to change that setting. I would always stick with the original setting, though.
Mstephens912 – DK Metcalf or AJ Brown?
It seems like dynasty managers have debated DK Metcalf and AJ Brown since their rookie year in 2019. Both players went in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft, and they went back-to-back in May 2019’s DLF rookie ADP. Interestingly, the two players have constantly flip-flopped in ADP over the following three years.
Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
As you can see, Brown and Metcalf’s ADP graphs look almost identical, as both players gained significant value after their rookie years before becoming consistent high-end assets after 2020. In May, Brown lost a bit of value after his trade to the Eagles, as he fell to WR6 with an ADP of 12.5. But even so, dynasty managers still have him ahead of Metcalf, who is WR8 and 16 overall.
At this point, it’s difficult to choose between the two players. Even though I don’t love Jalen Hurts as a passer, I would still far prefer him as my quarterback for receiving weapons on that team over Drew Lock or Geno Smith in Seattle. Metcalf’s best potential outcome likely is if he has Baker Mayfield as his quarterback this year, and he doesn’t have a history of supporting high-end fantasy options either. Brown also has a new, expensive contract extension, while Metcalf doesn’t, although it’s unclear that’s a good thing for his value.
The two players are almost identical fantasy producers in terms of fantasy value.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
They’ve scored almost identical fantasy PPG in each of their three seasons, finishing less than two points apart all three years. Additionally, both players are almost precisely the same age, as Brown turns 25 in June and Metcalf does the same in December.
However, if I have to choose between the two players, I’ll go with the ADP and stick with Brown. Metcalf’s main advantage over Brown is that he’s never missed a game, while Brown has struggled with injuries. But I think Brown will have a far superior year to Metcalf in 2022 based on their situations, which will give him more dynasty value after this year. Therefore, Brown is a slightly better bet in my eyes.
Mike Ortiz – Thoughts on Rachaad White taking over next year in Tampa Bay?
While I don’t hate White, I don’t see him as the type of player who will ever take over a backfield.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
Even though he was a 22-year-old senior in 2021, he still didn’t serve as a workhorse back. Most NFL teams saw White’s pass-catching skills as his best attribute, although he did score 15 rushing touchdowns. I don’t believe that White will find himself limited to a third-down role at the NFL level, but he will likely share work with a grinder-type back.
For 2022, I believe Leonard Fournette will serve as the Buccaneers’ workhorse, especially as it’s an all-in year in Tom Brady’s likely final season. However, I expect White to beat out Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard for snaps, taking some passing work and a few carries away from Fournette. After the 2022 season, the Buccaneers can release Fournette, saving $3.33 million in cap space.
But they have an extremely short window to do so, as $2 million of Fournette’s 2023 salary guarantees on the fifth league day of 2023. Therefore, they would release Fournette early in the off-season if they chose to do so. If that scenario came to pass, I would almost immediately sell White, as the Buccaneers would almost certainly add a significant complement or even a replacement in the 2023 NFL Draft. I simply don’t see White as a true lead back in the NFL, but his PPR upside makes him a decent pick in rookie drafts.
Anthony DeLorenzo – Hold or sell Mike Williams… he’ll be 28 this season…
Williams is a relatively easy sell candidate to me. He recently received a three-year, $60 million contract from the Chargers, locking him in with Justin Herbert for the next few years. Additionally, he turns 28 years old in October, so he’s near the age cliff for fantasy wide receivers.
More importantly, though, Williams didn’t have consistent fantasy value until his fifth year in the NFL.
Chart courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
He peaked at WR30 in 2018 before falling to WR40 in 2019 and WR47 in 2020. However, he suddenly put up a WR13 season in 2021, a complete outlier compared to the rest of his career. Williams reminds me of DeVante Parker, another player who had a fifth-year breakout before regressing to his previous numbers.
Even worse, most of Williams’s best games occurred at the beginning of the 2021 season.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
He started extremely hot, scoring 22 or more fantasy points in four of the first five games. But after that, he only broke that threshold once in week 18. He scored fewer than eight fantasy points in six of the next 11 games, as he became a risky fantasy play over that span.
As I always say on Ask DLF, I value what happened more recently over what happened at the beginning of the season. Teams often adjust throughout the year, and Williams’ early production seems like an aberration. The rest of the 2021 season is far more similar to the rest of his career, and I believe that’s what dynasty managers can expect moving forward. I’d love to move on from Williams while there’s still hype.
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