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Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Mark Andrews or DJ Moore?

We break down the results of our latest dynasty poll.

Mark Andrews and DJ Moore

Welcome to Would You Rather: Dynasty Edition, a series from DLF based on the popular board game. Each week we post a poll on Twitter asking fans who they prefer between a player or a certain pick. The values used here come via the DLF Trade Analyzer. We will cover the results and discuss both sides of the poll in depth. Let’s get right to it!

Mark Andrews vs DJ Moore

Last time, we covered a trade involving Mike Evans versus Elijah Moore. We always look at players or picks that carry similar values and let you vote on who you would rather have.

This week’s piece was done as an experiment on the value of position scarcity. We knew the values were almost identical before launching the poll but wanted to see how the voters would react when a tight end was injected into the formula. Here were the results:

The result was just our second instance of the voters not aligning with the values of the trade analyzer. This one was not particularly close, with the tight end winning by a nearly two-to-one margin.

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Data Courtesy DLF Trade Analyzer.

These numbers reflect a one-quarterback league. If we toggle to superflex, the value for Andrews outweighs Moore by a score of 452.2 to 389.9 and makes this poll make a little more sense than it does for a single signal-caller league. To get the Ravens tight end in this scenario, you would need to add a player of the caliber of Hunter Henry or Dalton Schultz to land the TE1 from 2021.

A Case for DJ Moore

It will be easy to make a case for Andrews so we will start with the underdog and try to sell you on Moore. The Maryland grad is a perennial dynasty darling despite never having finished as a WR1.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.

Despite playing 15 or more games every year in the league, Moore’s best finish came in 2019 when he finished as the WR16. His opportunity has not been the issue as there have been 100 or more targets come his way each of the past three seasons. In fact, the Carolina wideout has seen an average of 138.67 looks over that span. It would be amazing to see what he could do with an accurate quarterback.

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Image Courtesy of Wikipedia.

Moore has a career 60.4% catch rate but has seen it decrease almost every single year he has been in the league. There has been a 10% drop since his rookie season in 2018.

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Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

The Carolina Panthers had been rumored to be interested in Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, but that deal has fallen apart. The front office did address the position in the draft, trading into the third round to select Matt Corral. The Ole Miss grad was the fourth quarterback selected but might be in the best position to start outside of Kenny Pickett, who went in the first round to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

This is great news for Moore as Corral enjoys throwing the slant route and is extremely accurate on shorter passes. You can read more about Corral in his rookie profile. He is potentially the best quarterback Moore has played with and could be the boost needed to finally launch him into WR1 territory. I am buying the star wideout wherever I can.

A Case for Mark Andrews

The scarcity of quality players at the tight end position expectedly threw this poll heavily in favor of Andrews. What is interesting is that Moore has produced more points every season the two of them have been in the league outside of the 2021 season in which Andrews finished as the overall TE1.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.

The departure of Marquise Brown to Arizona should only increase the opportunities for the stud tight end. Rashod Bateman will likely step up and see more targets, but Andrews should be in line for 100 or more targets yet again in 2022. The Ravens did draft two tight ends in the fourth round this year, selecting Charlie Kolar with pick number 128 and then choosing Isaiah Likely 11 picks later at 139. Both are big, pass-catching tight ends who could threaten Andrews down the line, but shouldn’t be a factor in 2022. The Ravens now list six tight ends on their depth chart.

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Image Courtesy of Rotowire.

It was the first time in six seasons that Travis Kelce did not finish as the TE1. The extra 21 targets went a long way in helping 26-year-old Andrews unseat the reigning champ. Andrews saw 154 targets to 134 for Kelce but also did a bit more with his opportunities, as we can see by the chart below.

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Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.

George Kittle was the best of the bunch in terms of points per opportunity, but injuries derailed a productive season. Andrews checked in with 1.93 points per chance and was able to turn it into 297.1 PPR points, a difference of 38.6 points or nearly 2.5 points per game. There is a good chance he goes for back-to-back TE1 seasons.

Conclusion

As is the case with anything dynasty-related, team needs, league size, scoring, and aversion to risk play a role in how you construct your roster. I agree with the masses here with Andrews being the better option but it is a lot closer for us than the poll reflects.

Position scarcity is the main reason, but the fact Andrews will be 27 when the 2022 season starts coupled with the fact that Baltimore drafted two more pass-catching tight ends in the draft has me concerned with his longevity. The possible quarterback upgrade has me dreaming of a WR1 finish (finally) for Moore.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Mark Andrews or DJ Moore?
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tmarge
8 days ago

Blows my mind that anyone would rather have DJ Moore than an elite TE. The impactvof Andrews is sooooo much higher than any WR2

tmarge
Reply to  Jeff Smith
8 days ago

Andrews is just now entering the prime for TEs, has a QB and I believe is only a year older. I just dont see a time where id rather have DJM more. Moore wont outscore Andrews on a per game basis and even if he did itd have to be by a lot to close the gap on the position scarcity. There are probably 20 or so WRs about the same as DJM on a per game basis. Andrews maybe 2-4 TEs who can come close to his production and he gets better each hear.

tmarge
Reply to  Jeff Smith
6 days ago

What makes you feel like he isnt? One of those guys? Dude just had 107 catches 1361 yards 9 TDs and the team just lost Brown and didnt replace him. He should see elite target share and is only 26. When will DJ Moore have a competent QB to make him anymore exciting than a mid wr2? Even if Andrews only has 2 more years any where near as productive as last year he is still wayyyyy more valuable than Moore. DJ Moore would need a Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow type upgrade by next year to get anywhere close to Andrews value and weekly production.

tmarge
Reply to  Jeff Smith
6 days ago

Yea i agree the one fear I would have is they revert back to a more run eccentric offense. Time will tell for sure, I hope Moore gets a QB I’ve always loved his talent.

Justin Mazzella
8 days ago

Man, I’m such a DJ Moore fan and truther. I understand why people would select Andrews. He’s basically a less sexy Kelce, but right now I think it’s a mix of positional scarcity, his several top finishes, and recency bias after Brown leaving.

Some counter points though: Is tight end really that scarce at the moment? I think there are a decent amount of weekly startable players, and enough of the Hayden Hursts and Gerald Everett types to sub in from the wire/bench potentially. Also, which player would be more on an uptrend? I think that would be DJ M. He’s a quarterback away from showing people his top 5 ceiling. I think this season Andrews might feast until he pukes. But I also think selling high on Andrews or buying disrespectfully low on DJ Moore would also be fine moves. You could honestly get DJ + for Andrews. If you could but DJM + Schultz for Andrews would you not do that? I just might.

tmarge
Reply to  Jeff Smith
8 days ago

I agree it can only get better, but not this year unfortunately. I love DJM incredible talent, wasted to a degree by bad QB play

Patrick Martin
7 days ago

Personally, the answer here is Andrews based on TE scarcity and the abundance of quality WRs available in fantasy right now. Andrews will play 3 more seasons before he hits age 30, and even then we’ve seen high profile TEs remain productive into their early 30s. I’m a DJ Moore fan as well, but I can’t think of a situation where I’d rather take Moore over Andrews straight up.
If I’m competing and need a TE he’s as close to a lock to finish in the top 3 at his position as you can get and I can find plenty of cost effective WRs who will produce similarly to DJM. In a rebuild I’d still be willing to take Andrews, as he will likely return more in a trade. Even if I decided to hang on to him and it takes me 2 years to reach a competitive state I’ll still likely be getting 2-3 seasons of top tier TE play once my team has turned the corner.

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