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AJ Brown traded to the Eagles: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact

We cover the shocking trade of AJ Brown.

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It was no secret now former Tennessee Titans wide receiver AJ Brown was in line for what looked to be a massive contract extension. For months, the Titans had hedged on giving it to him, but were also adamant they had no interest in trading him away. Well, something obviously changed last night as Tennessee sent Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for the #18 overall pick and a third round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Eagles responded by signing Brown to a four-year, $100 million contract extension with a whopping $57 million guaranteed. The trade sent shockwaves across the NFL and in dynasty circles alike. Let’s break down the players affected by the deal.

AJ Brown, WR PHI

Over his 43 games in Tennessee, Brown has posted 185 catches for 2,995 receiving yards and 24 touchdowns. Last year, he posted a respectable (but far from dominant) 63/869/5 line. However, the numbers have really never told the story with Brown. Simply put, he has elite-level talent and was stuck in a run-first offense with a quarterback far from elite. From a talent perspective, it’s hard to find too many players more skilled than Brown – that fact is just tough to argue as we’ve just seen too many jaw-dropping plays during his tenure in the league.

The problem now is Brown has gone to a very similar environment in Philadelphia. The Eagles are built around the legs of Jalen Hurts and his new quarterback has yet to show even above-average passing ability thus far. In the short-term, it looks like a bit of a lateral move for Brown as he still isn’t paired with what you would consider to be an elite-level passer.  Still, the Eagles are committed to winning and if Hurts doesn’t improve, he’ll be replaced with someone else as soon as next season. Philadelphia didn’t give Brown this kind of guaranteed money to have him be a spectator, so expect him to be peppered with targets – just don’t expect them to be of the accurate variety at the moment. His ADP and ranking really shouldn’t change much with the move.

DeVonta Smith, WR PHI

Well, there goes the dream of Smith turning into the alpha receiver for Hurts and the Eagles. Realistically, Smith is likely better in real-life as a WR2 and he looks like a pretty high-end version of that moving forward for Philly. Without some real improvement from Hurts (and from himself), it’s hard to see Smith matching last year’s 64/916/5 very easily. His ADP and ranking are likely going to move down a smidge. However, if Hurts can take a step forward, the path for Smith to becoming a very productive dynasty WR2 is clearly there. Contrary to what you may read elsewhere, the addition of Brown is far from catastrophic.

Dallas Goedert, TE PHI

There are two schools of thought in regards to this trade and the subsequent value of Goedert moving forward. On one hand, a case can be made Goedert is going to lose some value as Brown immediately becomes the top option in the passing game. On the other, an equally strong case can be made the addition of Brown is going to free up the middle of the field for Goedert to operate. In the end, there’s likely some truth to both. As a result, the ranking and ADP of Goedert is unlikely to change too much – there’s no reason to panic here.

Jalen Hurts, QB PHI

Well, it’s now or never for Hurts. The Eagles passed up on the top quarterbacks in the draft (at least thus far) and Hurts has now been given every possible opportunity to be successful. At this point, Hurts has been a much better quarterback in fantasy than reality, but that needs to change next season. The Eagles still possess the draft capital to move up and grab a new signal caller next year (or hit free agency), so Hurts is clearly under the microscope. Outside of possibly Trey Lance, the range of outcomes for Hurts is the most volatile for a quarterback in all of dynasty leagues. At the end of next year, Hurts could be an elite QB1 in dynasty leagues or be looking at backup opportunities. Simply put, there is a really high ceiling and really low floor in regards to his value. Dynasty owners would be fine with a repeat of his 3,144 passing yards, 784 rushing yards, and 26 total touchdowns from last year, especially if he can improve his accuracy and cut down on the interceptions. Feel lucky?

Jalen Reagor, WR PHI

Well, that might just be the final nail in the Jalen Reagor coffin, though at this point that coffin is pretty sealed up anyway. He’s simply looking like a bust at this point and needs a new home desperately. If he stays in Philadelphia, he’s going to be tough to even have on a dynasty roster at this point.

 

Quez Watkins, Zach Pascal, and the other Philly Receivers

This group has all seen their values dip. It’s a tough break for both Watkins and Pascal, who had sleeper appeal. Barring some injuries and/or a trade of Reagor, they’re not too exciting to have on a dynasty roster.

Treylon Burks, WR TEN

On the surface, it looks like the Titans traded Brown for Burks, who they took with the pick they acquired from Philadelphia. However, it really isn’t that simple. They realistically moved Brown for Burks and a whole lot of cap space. Regardless of the details, the move was a good one for Burks, who immediately steps in as a focal point of the Titans offense and he’s going to be a very desirable pick at the top of rookie drafts this off-season. Just keep in mind the Titans are still going to be built around a certain running back who simply crushes defenders.

Robert Woods, WR TEN

The addition of Woods has gone from a luxury to a necessity for the Titans. His value was on the decline before the move of Brown, but it’s going to rise a touch now. If he can return quickly from his torn ACL, Woods is going to be a cheap buy for a contending team looking to add some depth to their dynasty wide receiver corps. In short, Woods is no longer an afterthought.

Ryan Tannehill, QB TEN

Yikes. Tannehill was already no better than a QB2 in dynasty circles and while that’s where he’ll likely remain, this team is going to be even more reliant on their running game and defense. He’s really gone to low-end desperation starter and bye-week fill-in status.

Austin Hooper and the Tennessee Pass Catchers

You can make the case Hooper is a winner in the deal and he has a good chance at a bounceback season. He’s not the most exciting option in the world, but you can likely get him on the cheap. The rest of the skill room includes the likes of Racey McMath, Dez Fitzpatrick, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Of all those players, Fitzpatrick may actually be the most exciting and he’s a decent roster stash in deep leagues, pending what the Titans do in the draft.

Ken Kelly
AJ Brown traded to the Eagles: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact
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