Hey, loyal Dynasty League Football universe. I’ll be answering your mailbag questions this off-season and couldn’t be more excited to do so. The off-season is when dynasty league managers get to sit back and relax. Wait, that’s completely incorrect. The off-season is when we refine our strategies, look back at the year that’s past, the year to come, and everything in between. If you missed the last mailbag, you can find that here. For this week’s questions, I asked the Twitterverse for some help. Going forward, you can send your questions to the DLF mailbag.
Let’s dig in!
If you’re a rebuilding team, would you give up the 1.05 AND Aaron Jones to get your 2023 1st back to make it top two? Also have the 1.02, 1.07, and 1.10 in this class.
— DynastyScardy (@DynastyScardy) April 13, 2022
This is a very interesting trade idea. First off, you should know the DLF Trade Analyzer does favor the Aaron Jones and 1.05 side of this deal. And at first, blush when you first read this idea you probably agree with the analyzer. But one of the things that makes the analyzer such a great tool is the fact it’s dynamic.
If we tweak the analyzer just a bit to turn on the package adjustment (which makes sense in a two-for-one deal) and boost the draft pick value from the default 5% to 10%, we can see this deal gets even closer. In fact, it’s close enough to be almost a dead even trade.
Getting back your own 2023 1st allows you to control (at least as much as you can), where it will land. Assuming you’re allowed, any of the players you select in this 2022 draft should be placed on your taxi for the entirety of 2022 so they don’t score points and give you any unwanted victories. You’re already flush with 2022 picks (which most devy analysts agree is a weaker class than the 2023 class), so this trade will allow you to diversify what class your rebuild is leaning heavily on.
One final aspect of this deal I think would be instructive to look at before giving my thumbs up, is what happens when we swap out the 1.05 rookie pick for the player being drafted at 1.05 in rookie drafts per DLF’s April 2022 Superflex Rookie Dynasty ADP.
Now that we have a real player attached to the deal instead of what is the mystery box that is 1.05, the team getting the 2023 1st round pick wins the deal. I agree with the analyzer, though Wilson is now my rookie WR1, and Jones is still a functional RB2, the allure of an early 2023 1st is too hard to pass up. Come this time next year you can make the pick and select players like C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jahmyr Gibbs, or trade back and select two players from the class.
Make the deal!
How high of a 2022 first would you give up for a stud vet RB like Cook, Ekeler, etc
— Jackson Barrett (@RSJ_Jackson) April 13, 2022
I must first tell you my philosophy is to never trade for an aging running back. However, if you must do it, let’s at least be responsible about it. If you are going to trade a pick for a running back, I do like the fact you’re planning on using a pick from the 2022 class as opposed to the 2023 class. To get an idea of what picks you might need to surrender to secure Cooks or Ekeler, I now turn to the Dynasty Trade Finder. Giving up the 1.10 and Curtis Samuel to acquire Cook is more than digestible.
In that range of rookie drafts, you’re looking at getting Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, Isaiah Spiller, or George Pickens. None of those players currently profile as franchise-altering assets and throwing in Samuel doesn’t move the needle either way.
As opposed to that deal below are two examples of deals I would not make. The 1.02 (and stuff), and the 1.04 (and stuff) are too high a cost to pay for a running back soon to turn 27 years old, with a propensity to miss games. The 1.02 is typically Breece Hall, Malik Willis, or Kenneth Walker. Those running backs give you a five and six-year age discount on Cook, while the upside of Willis is immense.
Without getting too bogged down with screenshots, I suggest if you’re looking to acquire a veteran running back, just plaster your league with offers. Find every elderly running back within the range of Cook, Ekeler, and David Montgomery, and send out offers with the lowest first-round pick you have at your disposal. Let the other league managers counter, and try to get the deal done in the cheapest way possible.
On a personal leve,l if I were to trade for a veteran running back, I’m comfortable going as high as the 1.07 to get it done. I’m still duty-bound to implore you to try to get an even cheaper running back option. Running backs like Melvin Gordon, James Conner, and Rhamondre Stevenson would cost you infinitely less, and allow you to hold onto that first-round draft pick.
At cost, Daniel Jones or Tua?
— Bill McCarthy (@SupaDupaFlex) April 13, 2022
Can I just say no?
I prefer not to pay at cost for either player. Forced to choos,e I guess I would go with Jones. In April’s ADP, Tagovailoa is going off the board as the QB17, while Jones is going off the board as the QB28. The true issue arises in the fact Tagovailoa is being drafted in the late third/early fourth rounds of startup drafts vs. Jones in the seventh round of drafts. The opportunity cost to draft Tagovailoa is much higher considering you have to pass up on players like Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, and DJ Moore.
Drafting Jones means passing up on players in a much, much, much lower tier.
Instead of taking the half measure of drafting Tagovailoa in the third round, I’d much rather draft two elite quarterbacks in the first two rounds of a start-up draft, or just completely kick the can and draft a Jones-like player much later.
Is Hines an underrated top 24 PPR RB? Matt Ryan throws to his RBs and Hines has that role firmly in hand.
— Tommy Blair He/Him (@FFTommyB) April 13, 2022
No. Though it’s true Ryan does target his running backs a decent amount (an 18.9 target share from 2009 through 2019), it’s important to remember most times those targets are split up between his RB1 and RB2.
On average, the RB1 has averaged 41 targets per season, while the RB2 averaged 35 targets per season during Ryan’s 14 seasons. I think we can agree that of the Colts running backs Hines would be the RB2 on the depth chart. In case you disagree with me, you should know Hines played on a career-low 31.3% of offensive snaps in 2021, and despite being the presumptive receiving back for the Colts, he had just six more targets than Jonathan Taylor last year. Sadly, I think the days of Hines being a PPR asset are now gone.
- The DLF Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag - September 8, 2022
- DLF’s Dynasty Fantasy Football Sleeper Rankings - September 4, 2022
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Stock Report: Dameon Pierce and Breece Hall - September 2, 2022