2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Malik Willis, QB Liberty
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2022 NFL Draft Prospect Malik Willis, QB from Liberty. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
At this point in the NFL Draft process, you have likely heard a wide range of outcomes for quarterback Malik Willis. Is he the next big arm talent who elevates to the levels of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, or is he the next in a long line of players like Kyle Boller and Jordan Love?
Can Willis turn those plus traits and potential into actual production or will he leave fantasy fans lining up to draft another QB sooner rather than later?
THE STATS
We shouldn’t fall into the simple pattern of viewing players from their total stats. As the passing game has taken over, QB stats continue to climb as their passing yardage and touchdowns seem to jump every year. Willis is an electric player and we should be looking at what he can do with his legs as well as his arm as NFL teams will look to maximize his potential with both.
Passing:
Statistics from Sports Reference.
By now you have heard about Willis and that cannon of an arm. Unable to dethrone Jarrett Stidham at the QB position while playing for the Auburn Tigers in 2017 and 2018, Willis went for a change of scenery. He did not get a waiver to play for the Liberty Flames in 2019 so he had a redshirt season. He took the field in 2020 and led the Flames to a 9-1 record – he contracted Covid-19 in December of that season but did not miss any games.
While Willis is intriguing and some have him pegged as the top QB of the draft, the 2022 draft will likely mark the first since 2017 when a QB isn’t selected first overall.
But he has the chance of going very high – he is an electric playmaker who can beat a team in the air and with his legs.
Rushing:
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Over at Pro Football Focus, they tracked Willis with some impressive rushing stats. He had four games out of 13 where they tracked him with 12+ broken tackles.
Quarterbacks with the most rushing yards after contact last season
Malik Willis: 794
K.J. Jefferson: 662
Sam Howell: 647 pic.twitter.com/4vNfyjYwrS— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) April 10, 2022
In 2020 he put on a show running the ball as a QB, when he finished the season tied for seventh in total rushing touchdowns with 14. That production dipped in 2021 however, where he finished with less total rushing yardage with 56 more carries on the season.
To give some context to these stats, let’s take at something a tad more predictive than simple season-long stats, a metric like Adjusted Passing Yards Per Attempt. In his two seasons as a starter at Liberty, Willis exceeded the breakout threshold, including his breakout first season as the starter of the Flames.
Willis’s yards per passing attempt by age and completion percentage were underwhelming during his time at Liberty. In his breakout season, he was just below the baseline and then slid further last season.
In his article on Matt Corral, Shane Manila took a look at how recent QB classes have performed from a clean pocket and from under pressure using some data from PFF.
Shane looked at work Kevin Cole did over at PFF involving how recent first-round QBs performed. This piece on outperformance under pressure (Willis is just above Sam Howell and well behind Corral), scramble value (expected points added (EPA) on scrambles per dropback), and sack avoidance, is useful in finding possible busts.
Go and give the entire article a read over at PFF to help you get a better understanding of how this class stacks up against recent classes. A simple breakdown says that being better in college in all three areas is a significant indicator of pro success.
THE FILM
While watching Willis, you see the physical skills that NFL scouts and Twitter are in love with. He has the ability to create with his feet when a play breaks down and to get out of trouble when the pocket collapses. He has a strong arm to make off-platform throws that are necessary for the NFL when escaping pressure.
Any Seahawks fan can watch Willis and see some of the aspects that have him compared to Russell Wilson – the big arm and mobility in particular.
Highest graded draft eligible QB’s on 20+ yard passes last season
Bailey Zappe: 97.6
Malik Willis: 96.6
Desmond Ridder: 96.0 pic.twitter.com/pgapNT1Itf— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) April 8, 2022
THE MEASURABLES
Willis just doesn’t remind you of Wilson based on his play. Coming in just a touch over six feet and weighing in around 219 pounds, he is smaller in size. He won’t be trucking defenders like Josh Allen but he is elusive as his yards after contact stats show.
Willis did not run the 40-yard dash at either the NFL Combine or the Liberty pro day. It was reported that he was clocked at 20-plus miles per hour when running during the Reese’s Senior Bowl in February this year.
DYNASTY VALUE
This QB class has been all over the place. At the end of March, Daniel Jeremiah had Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett as the only QB to hear his name called on day one of the draft. Most mock drafts now seem to have Willis going within the top ten picks.
This has been a wild off-season to date. The Eagles and Saints recently made a move in the draft and we have already seen Russell Wilson dealt to Denver and Deshaun Watson to Cleveland. Teams in need of a QB are likely going to be looking early or making moves back into the later part of the first to get that fifth-year option on ‘their guy’.
In superflex rookie drafts, you will likely need a top-five pick for Willis. If he is taken during the top ten picks, he is likely to be either the first or second player selected in your rookie drafts. In your one-QB league he is going at the start of round two.
In the overall rookie rankings for one QB at DLF, Willis is ranked 16th overall, around a few players likely to be selected on day two of the draft. In superflex rookie rankings, he is seen as the top overall player.
Willis’s long-term value will depend on the landing spot. If a team drafts him and tries to plug him as a traditional signal-caller, he will have a rough go. His style of play is designed for Seattle and Pete Carroll – let him run RPOs and set up play-action deep shots when the safeties start to crowd the box.
CONCLUSION
Willis is a fascinating prospect. He has all the physical gifts and attributes that scouts look for in a top-flight QB. The biggest question though is if he puts all those skills together.
With an arm similar to Jay Cutler’s, he can make off-platform throws deep and into tight windows. That same arm can get him in trouble and throws he tried to make at Liberty are going to be going the other way in the NFL. He doesn’t have the speed of Jalen Hurts but has a similar rushing ability. You will be hoping that all of these attributes come together in the NFL for Willis.
I think there is a lot to like, but this is a player who couldn’t beat Jarrett Stidham at Auburn. That has given me concerns. If everything hits, you’ll have a gift for a QB on your fantasy team. But why not send that pick to a team where maybe next year you can get a Bryce Young or CJ Stroud? If I am drafting at the top of my rookie draft, I will look to move down and add picks for 2023.
Pete is a Western Washington University (Go Vikings! Undefeated at Football since 2009!) History grad with a doctorate in dynasty football, from a certificate he bought online. He prefers stats and analytics but realizes film grinding is an important part of the process. Dabbles in "Mild Takes" and believes in the process.
