Analysis of 2022 Rookie Running Backs by ADP: RBs 5-8
Now that the NFL Draft is drawing near and dynasty owners all across the country are making their draft boards, it’s time to start helping by reviewing all running backs in order of current average draft position. Not all players pan out at the NFL level, so I am going to be critical at times that require it.
Why should you listen to what I have to say? Prior to writing for DLF, I was a running back coach who traveled the East Coast attending coaching clinics and seminars. I’ve talked with scouts and studied with offensive and positional coaches, and learned which characteristics make elite running backs and which make busts.
As such, I’ve been making RB reviews for the past several seasons. This is part two of a multi-part series. The rest of the series can be found here.
Grading System:
- A = Elite / Early to middle first-round pick
- B = NFL starter potential / Late first or early to middle second-round pick
- C = RBBC or COP Back at best / Middle or late second to third-round pick
- D = Lifetime backup or goal-line back / Late third or fourth-round pick
- F = Bust / Draft with extreme caution
Zamir White, RB Georgia
Rookie ADP: RB5
My first instinct when I scouted White was that I loved his game for the pro level. He’s an inside runner with the ability to finish runs powerfully to get that extra yard or two. I love how patient he is with allowing his blocks to form, and he doesn’t waste much time with extra unnecessary movements.
I saw a lot of power running in his game, which translates well into the NFL since most teams have switched to power offense in the last few years, but I believe through his tape that his vision is also good enough to excel in zone schemes. His burst and quickness through the line is just fast enough to please me as a possible dynasty owner.
He protects the football well, his body control is well above average, and his Scouting Combine numbers match exactly what we saw on tape. All in all, that’s a lot of positives to look forward to, as I think White has as much talent as some of the top guys in this year’s draft. In the following gif, we watch an excellent run where he avoids a defender using an amazing display of athleticism on route to a first down versus Alabama.
The negatives, however, cannot be avoided. He has well below the 10:1 run to catch ratio I look for. He came off the field on passing downs a lot, and the only route he ever ran on pass plays was a flat route, looking like a decoy. He was also slow to pick up blitzes, though I do admit that most of the blitz pickups were quite nice.
In all the videos I watched, never once did I see White transition the ball to the safe side, and rarely did I see him get into position to pick up a blitz before it happened. He also whiffed on a couple of flat routes where he was supposed to scrape the defender at release, sometimes resulting in a sack of the quarterback.
He had two ACL tears many years ago on both knees, one in 2017 and the other in 2018. As a result, he’s had to go through some lengthy rehabilitations, which means he’s slightly older for a typical running back entering the NFL. Will he heal the way Frank Gore did and have a long career, or will he develop arthritis in the way of Todd Gurley? That’s a key point to consider with White.
I love his talent, I like his size and strength, but I’m worried about the “other” aspect of his game. If my hypothesis is correct, I wouldn’t expect him to be much help in the passing game since that’s the most complex part of his position, therefore I wouldn’t expect much more than a top 20 guy at best for his career.
Landing spot is going to greatly dictate his value. A great landing spot with tremendous coaching would mean his upside is somewhere around a Nick Chubb type caliber, but if he lands in a terrible situation or with a coaching staff that does not have the ability to bring him to an elite level, then I fear he may be a bust. Nobody else in the draft has greater upside and worse downside than Zamir White.
GRADE: C+
James Cook, RB Georgia
Rookie ADP: RB6
You’re not seeing double, there are two Georgia running backs with current back-to-back ADP rankings. For everything White wasn’t with the Georgia Bulldogs, James Cook was.
Cook measured in at 5’11” and 204 pounds, slightly taller and underweight for a prototypical running back for most scouts. His game tape looks fast and quick, which correlates well with his combine numbers so there’s no surprise there.
When Georgia needed a passing-down running back, Cook was the guy who was called into action. He can run a plethora of routes, has good hands, and also has a decent ability to avoid defenders to gain those extra yards. He had 67 catches versus 230 rushes in his career, so Cook has the PPR upside that White does not.
He didn’t plow through defenders and oftentimes chose to run outside rather than inside when the blocking was there, so that’s a knock against him. In the image below, the offensive line is perfectly blocking the defense with an extra blocker ready to take on the linebacker, but Cook decided early – as you can see by his plant foot in the still image below – to cut outside for a small pickup instead.
This is one instance of many that aggravated me to no end. This can be coached, but I would expect a player coming out of the SEC to already have this knowledge ingrained in them before entering the pros. If he thought this window was too small, he’s going to want to jump outside every play at the next level, and that won’t bode well for his career.
Through it all, I did not find Cook to be overwhelming. He was a guy to fill a role that was needed on the Bulldog team, and performed when asked. I think he’s the best fit for a role in an RBBC setting with some PPR upside. You’d be drafting Cook as a flex at best.
GRADE: C-
Tyler Allgeier, RB BYU
Rookie ADP: RB7
Allgeier (pronounced “al-jeer”) measured in at 5’10”, 221 pounds. This four-year player from BYU amassed over 1,800 total yards his senior year, which put him on the map for us dynasty hopefuls.
If you’re high on him, then I’m going to burst the bubble a little bit. Allgeier is one of the most over-hyped prospects that I’ve ever researched. I found him to be slow to the line, slow to make decisions, tackled too many times by the ankles, leaned into his cuts, and his body was often off-balance at the point of contact and elsewhere.
His highlights are against lesser competition, where he used his mediocre 4.6 speed to outrun defenders of a lesser caliber. The majority of his big runs occurred when the offensive line created wide-open lanes to run through, and Allgeier took advantage.
I didn’t find his game to be all bad, however. He had some nifty little moves for a big man, good blocking skills, was able to use cut blocks on bigger defenders, and finished his career with a 10:1 ratio on runs versus catches that I like to see.
He is a bigger back than most, so I think he could be a serviceable back in the right situation, given that they have a power running game that can fully utilize his skills.
Ultimately, however, I see him as a number two or backup at best for the duration of his time in the NFL, so I will be using my draft capital elsewhere. There’s a possibility that we’ll see a David Johnson-like start to his career, and if that happens, you’d be wise to sell while the iron is hot.
GRADE: D+
Pierre Strong, RB South Dakota State
Rookie ADP RP8
Strong entered the combine at 5’11” and 207 pounds. He’s fast and somewhat shifty in all the tape that I viewed, but one big knock early on is the fact that he played for a smaller school and therefore put up numbers versus smaller opponents. Another knock is his height-to-weight ratio, which isn’t where scouts would like it to be, though it’s pretty close to ideal and may not be much of a factor if he were to put on some weight.
When viewing his film, Strong displayed flashes of quickness and brilliance here and there. His stiff arm was impressive for a smaller back, and he had good use of the hips when he made his cuts. It’s hard to judge his ability versus lesser talent, but the good stuff is all there, so we have to assume for now that he can bring it with him to the next level.
Strong recorded a 4.37-second 40-yard dash, and an equally impressive 10’4” broad jump to both showcase his speed and burst. The measurements we saw during the combine match what’s on tape, so there’s nothing concerning to be found. It’s worth noting that he’s already 23 which is slightly older for a back at this stage of his career.
Strong isn’t going to dominate at the NFL level, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him become a starter at some point and gain fantasy points as a dual-threat back. If I’m drafting today and I have a second-round pick to use on a running back, I would take Strong with that selection and feel pretty good about that value going up over the summer.
GRADE: B
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