2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Jalen Tolbert, WR South Alabama
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2022 NFL Draft Prospect Jalen Tolbert, WR from South Alabama. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
Jalen Tolbert is an intriguing wide receiver prospect, as he played at a lower level of competition outside of the Power 5 conferences. He has some solid production, but he’s also an older player with some flaws in his profile. But he’s definitely on the dynasty radar, especially lately. So let’s jump into the breakdown!
The Stats
Tolbert had a good career at South Alabama.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He wasn’t a high-profile recruit, so he didn’t have too many options in his college selection process. Then, he suffered a knee injury in the 2017 preseason, forcing him to redshirt his true freshman season. In 2018, he essentially saw no playing time, participating in five games with five catches for 60 yards.
However, in 2019, Tolbert emerged as the second receiving option behind future seventh-round NFL Draft pick of the Saints, Kawaan Baker. Baker led the team in receptions and yards, but Tolbert had more touchdowns and a higher yards/reception mark. In addition, he proved he could be a downfield threat, although he had limited volume over the entire season.
Then, Tolbert became the clear top receiver for the 2020 season. He had 13 more receptions than Baker and over 400 more yards, with eight touchdowns each. Even though he saw more volume, he maintained his impressive efficiency numbers, averaging 17.0 yards per reception. He also was first-team All-Sun Belt at wide receiver that year.
While Tolbert could’ve entered the 2021 NFL Draft, he decided to return to school for his senior year. I believe he made a wise decision as he reached new heights. He improved in receptions and yards, and he even averaged more yards per reception than his 2020 breakout season. It’s clear that Tolbert outmatched his level of competition, and he won the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year. He could’ve returned for another college season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but he made a wise decision to enter the 2022 NFL Draft.
Tolbert boasts excellent market share markers throughout his college career as a prospect.
Chart courtesy of DLF College Market Share App.
Unfortunately, he only broke out at 20 years old, but that 2019 season represented his first year with significant playing time. He had a 27.33% yardage market share that year, slightly above the regression line representing the average top-36 wide receiver.
While his 2019 was good, 2020 and 2021 were ridiculous, as he had 39.9% and 47.93% market shares. Oddly, his dynasty profile would likely look better on paper without 2021, as he would enter the NFL at 22 instead of 23 years old. But without his 2021 season, he wouldn’t be in the day two draft capital conversation as he is now.
The Film
I always like to put a disclaimer at the start of any section on film analysis I write. I’m certainly no film expert, especially with college tape. However, I can still watch players and have takeaways, and I want to share my opinion on what I saw.
As Tolbert played outside the Power 5 conferences, he doesn’t have the same film database as some other players. However, I wanted to look at his game against Tennessee from 2021, as it shows him playing against SEC competition.
Unfortunately, he started the video off with an ugly drop, but he immediately made up for that on the next play with a stellar one-handed catch. Honestly, that catch represents one of the better ones I’ve seen in this rookie class.
He then should’ve had a touchdown around the 1:00 mark, although the quarterback missed him wide open in the end zone. Luckily, Tolbert managed to make up for that later on at 1:55, where he caught a pass on fourth and three, sneaking away from the defenders and going for a long touchdown. He didn’t look overly fast on the play, but he had enough speed that he was gone once he got behind the defense.
Overall, Tolbert certainly looked like he belonged against the higher level of competition. His quarterback was so bad, though, which prevented him from having an even bigger day. But, seven catches for 143 yards and a touchdown is still a solid line. Ordinarily, I would look at multiple games from a prospect, but I feel like Tolbert is difficult to evaluate on film for a non-tape grinder like me.
The Measurables
Tolbert had a mixed bag of results at the NFL Combine.
Even though 4.49 sounds like a fast time in the 40-yard dash, he ranked in the bottom half of wide receivers in this speedy 2022 class. However, I didn’t expect him to run a blazing time, so it’s a fine mark for his value. He did slightly better in the jumping events, although still nothing remarkable, while finishing third-fastest in the three-cone Drill. In the past, I may have had some concerns about his light weight, but I think DeVonta Smith and other recent prospects have limited those worries.
Tolbert’s best measurable is his NFL prospect grade, which slots him as the WR7 in this class. He ranks higher than notable receivers like George Pickens, Christian Watson, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Skyy Moore, and it projects him as a future starter in the NFL. I’m not saying that those prospect grades are infallible, but they noted some of the same traits that I did. Specifically, his NFL profile mentions the Tennessee game as a positive checkmark. However, with a wide receiver like Tolbert, all that matters is whether he gets day two draft capital, and it’s not clear if the NFL is in on him.
Dynasty Value
Right now, Tolbert is the WR14 and 30th overall in DLF’s consensus 1QB rookie rankings and the same spot in March’s rookie ADP. However, that value seems relatively low if he sneaks into the back end of day two of the NFL Draft.
Chart courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
As you can see, Tolbert looks like a consensus third-round pick, although his value varies wildly from one mock draft to the next. But if he lands in the third round, he definitely won’t be a mid-third-round rookie pick. However, I rank him similarly to his current DLF values, given his risk profile.
Conclusion
I like Tolbert’s production profile, but I’m slightly skeptical of his advanced age and level of college competition. He’s the type of player where I could find myself all in with good draft capital and landing spot and entirely out if the opposite occurs. Mostly, I need to see him go to a situation where he can play right away, as I’ll lose interest quickly in dynasty formats if a 23.5-year-old receiver has to wait to get playing time.
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