In my antepenultimate seven-round mock draft of the season for Draft Countdown, I attempted to find some good fits for teams that still allow values to match up.
Below is a breakdown of the skill position players selected in the top 100 of the draft, where they went in the mock, and how their fantasy value would look if they had these landing spots.
1.16: Kenny Pickett, New Orleans Saints
There is a good chance Pickett is the first QB off the board due to his experience and all-around talent. Despite this, he is still unlikely to go as high as many have him and a fit in New Orleans makes sense. He can sit behind Jameis Winston and get the ropes before taking over. It isn’t an awful spot in an established offense. In a superflex league, he becomes a mid-first-round target here.
1.20: Malik Willis, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have gone QB crazy and are likely to take one. If Willis is sitting there, with his athleticism, they would snatch him up. The downside is Willis would likely sit behind Mitchell Trubisky at least for a year until he is ready. The upside is a rushing QB in a great structured environment with a top coach. Willis would be in consideration as a top-two superflex rookie pick.
1.32: Matt Corral, Detroit Lions
The Lions are in prime position at 32 to take a QB they covet. Corral fits the offense well as he can move and works well with some of the RPO plays the Lions began to introduce last year. Once again, he would be likely to sit for a year behind Jared Goff but has some rushing fantasy upside and nice check-down options in D’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson. It would put him in a position to be a late first-round superflex rookie pick.
2.43: Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
Ridder killed his workouts, showcasing incredible rushing upside along with his long starting experience. The Falcons would still ride with Marcus Mariota for a year, but if Ridder’s accuracy improved he has MASSIVE fantasy upside for the future. He would be a late first/early second superflex pick and a potential steal.
2.46: Sam Howell, Minnesota Vikings
Howell seems to have been forgotten and may not quite have a place if he is passed up by teams like the Falcons and Lions. The Vikings have two years of Kirk Cousins left, so it would be a wait-and-see approach for Howell which could nuke his value. The Vikings aren’t an ideal QB landing spot and would push Howell down to the late second round of superflex rookie drafts.
3.72: Carson Strong, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks and Panthers are the two prime spots not addressed yet in this mock. If the Seahawks wait to go QB until the third round, Strong is a great fit as a big-armed passer who can get the ball downfield to DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. Though he won’t give any rushing upside, Strong would fall into the late second round of superflex rookie drafts and likely be slightly overdrafted for situation over talent.
2.37: Breece Hall, Houston Texans
The Texans may not look like an ideal landing spot, but it is an open three-down role for any RB they draft in the Top 100. Hall has the full skillset as a runner and receiver to be utilized with a ton of volume. He is likely the 1.01 of rookie drafts and would remain as a Texan, but if anyone gets squeamish, jump up and grab him.
2.57: Kenneth Walker III, Buffalo Bills
The Bills have been eyeing up RBs often in the process, so Walker would be a nice fit to be what Devin Singletary was plus some. He has three-down ability as shown by his Combine receiving drills and would have plenty of scoring chances. Being a top 60 pick would put him in the top five of rookie drafts with some instant production.
3.74: Isaiah Spiller, Atlanta Falcons
Though many are souring on Spiller, him going to Arthur Smith’s Falcons would be a great match. Even as a third-round pick, Spiller slides into a starting RB role and could provide instant fantasy success with his between the tackles running and receiving ability. This would bump him up into the mid-first round of rookie drafts.
3.75: Rachaad White, Denver Broncos
A dagger in the heart of Javonte Williams owners, the Broncos add pass-catching White. Denver are looking closely at rookie RBs so don’t be surprised if they add one. White gives a pass-catching complement to Williams but knocks both their values down. White would likely tumble into early round two of rookie drafts.
3.81: James Cook, New York Giants
The Giants have shown a ton of interest in Cook, who could be another versatile weapon behind Saquon Barkley. His pass-catching skills are off the charts and he could end up being a sneaky fit in a year if Barkley is moved. Despite this, the view of Cook not being a three-down back would cause him to be a mid-round two rookie draft pick.
1.10: Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
The Jets don’t feel like a great situation for a rookie WR, but Zach Wilson showed some development and needs a true alpha to go with Elijah Moore and Corey Davis. Garrett Wilson is on the smaller side, but he plays like an alpha getting open with great body control. Even with some trepidation, Wilson would be a top-five rookie pick.
1.11: Jameson Williams, Washington Commanders
Williams is the top WR for many NFL teams and he could fill the role for the Commanders that they have used fast players in the past (see DeAndre Carter last year). This would be a nice fit for Carson Wentz and give a pairing with Terry McLaurin. Debates may rage about if Williams is a true fantasy asset, but he would fall into the mid-first round of rookie drafts here.
1.18: Treylon Burks, Philadelphia Eagles
Burks is a fantasy darling with his slot ability along with size and athleticism. The Eagles would make a nice pairing of Burks with DeVonta Smith, but may not throw enough with Jalen Hurts to make the rookie instantly fantasy viable. That being said, the upside would push Burks into a top-five rookie pick.
1.22: Drake London, Green Bay Packers
London replacing Davante Adams might be ideal. A big-bodied WR who gives Aaron Rodgers a great target to throw toward down the sideline is exciting. This could be a classic situation vs talent debate. If London falls to 22, is he worth picks five or six in a rookie draft? My guess is many would invest in a Rodgers weapon.
1.25: Chris Olave, Buffalo Bills
Gabriel Davis owners might be mad, but the Bills are looking to add to their weapons for sure. Olave gives them the deep threat Emmanuel Sanders was supposed to be. Having Josh Allen throw you passes is a plus, but rare target opportunities would push Olave to the back end of the first round of rookie drafts.
1.30: Jahan Dotson, Kansas City Chiefs
If the Chiefs miss out on the top five WRs, Dotson could be an intriguing option from Penn State who adds speed and production. Though the senior isn’t as highly thought of in fantasy circles, this would put the situation to the test. He would likely fall into the late first or early second of rookie drafts.
2.39: George Pickens, Chicago Bears
Pickens would slot into the number one WR spot for the Bears and tout true alpha upside in this spot. Fantasy players would be intrigued and he would likely jump guys like Olave and Dotson to go in the late first of rookie drafts.
2.49: Christian Watson, New Orleans Saints
Watson has all the tools to be the number two for the Saints and eventually take over for Michael Thomas as a slant player who can go deep at times. The small-school label would push him into the second round of rookie drafts to potentially become a steal.
2.53: Skyy Moore, Green Bay Packers
If the Packers double up on WRs, there may be plenty who want to invest in both. Moore is gaining steam in the community, but his fantasy upside would be questioned enough for him to fall to the mid-second.
2.54: John Metchie, New England Patriots
Metchie is likely the top 60 WR who would fall in rookie drafts if this happened. Injuries, Mac Jones, and a running offense is not a great recipe. He could tumble all the way to round three of rookie drafts. Maybe a steal that late, but the narrative wouldn’t be great.
2.58: Jalen Tolbert, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons’ situation will put fantasy players to the test. Tolbert can slot in as the top guy as a rookie potentially, but is the offense good enough to justify it? I’d guess a late second-round pick here, but some drafters will avoid him.
3.66: Justyn Ross, Detroit Lions
Ross gives big upside in a Lions situation ripe for the taking. I am unsure if Ross can get back to his freshman dominance after multiple medical issues, but the Lions would be a fair shake. Someone will take a chance on Ross too early in a lot of rookie drafts, but his ADP would settle into the third round.
3.73: Wan’Dale Robinson, Indianapolis Colts
This one would get some excitement with the chance of Robinson replacing TY Hilton. Robinson plays like an outside WR despite his size and is physical. Questions will linger about if he is a true starter, pushing him down to the mid third of rookie drafts.
3.78: David Bell, Cleveland Browns
Bell is a divisive figure after poor workouts, but his insane production going into a spot with Deshaun Watson is as good as you can ask for. The analytics types will still take a shot on him late second, but he may fall a whole round in some drafts.
3.84: Danny Gray, Pittsburgh Steelers
This one is intriguing. The Steelers and Kevin Colbert hit home runs at WR all the time on day two of the draft. Would people trust Gray as a more unknown rookie name? He can fly and is very agile working in that offense. It could be Diontae Johnson part two as an early third-round steal.
3.90: Velus Jones Jr, Tennessee Titans
Jones may bring more special teams than outright starter potential, pushing him down to late-round three of rookie drafts, but he has the athleticism to be the number three WR on the Titans.
1.31: Trey McBride, Cincinnati Bengals
McBride’s great workouts could sneak him into the first round and make him a consideration in the late second of rookie drafts. The Bengals aren’t the best fantasy spot with so many mouths to feed though, so there will be some hesitancy.
3.67: Greg Dulcich, New York Giants
The Giants have a big hole at TE and Dulcich is a good pass-catcher. Even so, it is late round three of rookie drafts at best for the Bruin. There is some upside there, but it would take time.
3.91: Charlie Kolar, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kolar can block and is athletic, but he feels more Cameron Brate than Gronk. He likely would get pushed down to round four of rookie drafts and be an afterthought for long-term viability.
3.92: Jelani Woods, Green Bay Packers
The Packers have shown interest in Woods and he has some pass-catching upside despite his inconsistency this year for Virginia. He would be likely to sit behind Robert Tonyan for a year not making him fantasy viable for awhile.
3.97: Cade Otton, Detroit Lions
Otton would be the blocker and red zone threat in 12 personnel with TJ Hockenson. It isn’t a great fantasy spot and puts him in the undraftable range.
Once again, check out the mock over at Draft Countdown to also see some potential third-day players who could be fantasy-relevant!
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