2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Tyler Allgeier, RB BYU
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2022 NFL Draft Prospect Tyler Allgeier, RB from BYU. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
I heard of Allgeier before the 2021 college season, even though I’m not a devy analyst. Therefore, when I began my 2022 rookie process, I already knew his name, and he seemed like a solid sleeper. However, he seemed to lose value after the NFL Scouting Combine, pushing him down rookie ranks. Let’s jump into his complete profile.
The Stats
Allgeier had an interesting career at BYU.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He entered the university as a preferred walk-on in 2018, although he easily made the team that year. Unfortunately, he only saw nine carries for 49 yards in four games, eventually redshirting the 2018 season.
Then, his career took a bizarre turn going into the 2019 season. BYU decided to convert him into a linebacker, shifting him over to the defensive side of the ball. He still managed to record a few carries and receptions, but he played almost all his snaps on defense.
Luckily for Allgeier, he received the opportunity to switch back to running back for the 2020 season, which coincided with Zach Wilson’s breakout. BYU went 11-1 that season, and Allegeier served as their starting running back ahead of Lopini Katoa. He averaged an impressive 7.5 YPC and scored 13 rushing touchdowns in a stellar season. Wilson was the primary engine of BYU’s offense, but Allgeier and Dax Milne were his two top weapons.
After 2020, Wilson and Milne departed for the NFL Draft, leaving Allgeier as the only primary holdover on BYU’s offense. No other running backs or wide receivers filled Milne’s void, and new quarterback Jaren Hall ultimately failed to live up to Wilson’s 2020 season. Nevertheless, Allgeier’s 276 carries and 1,601 rushing yards more than quadrupled the second-best player in those categories. Even though he regressed to 5.8 YPC, he added ten additional rushing touchdowns and doubled his reception total.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and his redshirt year, Allgeier had two years of eligibility remaining, but he chose to forfeit them to enter the 2022 NFL Draft. That seemed like a wise decision at the time, as the 2022 rookie running back class is relatively weak. He had nothing left to prove at the college level, at least not at a smaller school like BYU. Of course, I have to question his college statistics as they came against a weaker level of competition, but that’s the main knock against him.
The Film
I always like to put a disclaimer at the start of any section on film analysis I write. I’m certainly no film expert, especially with college tape. However, I can still watch players and have takeaways, and I want to share my opinion on what I saw.
I wanted to start by looking at Allgeier’s game against Baylor, where he faced a higher level of competition.
Unfortunately, this game wasn’t his best performance, as he had 15 carries for 33 yards and a touchdown and three receptions for eight yards. He got stuffed up the middle on most of his runs, although he did have a few nice plays. Around 1:45, he caught a swing pass that he almost converted into a touchdown, but he went out of bounds just before the endzone. He evaded a tackle in the backfield to score the touchdown on the next play, preventing a loss on the play.
However, I’m not sure how much of Allgeier’s challenging game was his fault. He rarely had any room to run, as the BYU offensive line looked outmatched by the Baylor defense. So to give Allgeier another chance, I chose another game, this time against Washington State. BYU won this game 21-19, and Allgeier dominated with 32 carries for 191 yards and two touchdowns plus two receptions for three yards.
Around 1:00, he made his first highlight play of the video, taking a carry up the middle, shaking off a couple of tackles, and going for a considerable gain. Throughout the rest of the video, Allgeier had mostly regular plays, at least until the 6:10 mark. At that time, he broke off an impressive run, starting with a backfield cutback before fighting tacklers for extra yards.
Then, at 7:10, he scored his first touchdown of the day on an outside run concept. It wasn’t anything special, but it’s always nice to see the running back convert the plays he should make. He also scored another touchdown later on, although this time, he had to fight against a tackler to reach the end zone.
Overall, this game gave me more hope for Allgeier, as he demonstrated he could carry his offense to a victory while being a workhorse. The offensive line versus defensive matchup seemed even, so he had a fair shot at playing against a relatively equal level of competition. After watching these two games, I wouldn’t say that I’m overly excited about Allgeier, but he didn’t turn me away from him.
The Measurables
Among statistics, film, and measurables, I believe that measurables are likely holding Allgeier’s value down the most. He performed poorly at the NFL Combine, especially in the 40-yard dash.
I’m surprised that he ran a 4.6 40-yard dash given his tape. He didn’t look extremely fast with breakaway speed, but I expected him to come in slightly faster than 4.6 flat. His jumping numbers were also almost dead in the middle among running backs, which isn’t great for someone who wants to be a day two draft pick.
Luckily, his size and measurables aren’t an additional negative for him. 5’11’’ is just fine for an NFL running back, and 224 pounds will allow him to fight tacklers at the NFL level. He also has a nice hand size for pass-catching.
Allgeier also had his pro day recently, but he chose not to re-run the 40-yard dash or re-do the jumping drills. He did complete the three-cone, 20-yard shuttle, and bench press, but none of his numbers will particularly help his stock. I’m particularly not impressed with a 7.09-second three-cone, but no running backs completed that drill at the NFL Combine, so it’s tough to compare him to other players in the class. Either way, I expect NFL scouts to use Allgeier’s measurables against him, likely reflected in his poor 5.98 prospect grade.
Dynasty Value
Allgeier dropped in dynasty value after the NFL Combine. In February’s DLF 1QB rookie ADP, he was the RB6 and 17th overall player. However, he fell to 25th overall and the RB10 in March’s ADP data, a significant fall. For comparison, he comes in slightly higher in DLF’s consensus expert rookie rankings, at 22nd overall and RB6. Interestingly, I almost precisely agree with his current ADP value, as I have him 25th overall and RB10, just like his ADP value. After seeing his NFL Combine numbers, I also dropped him in my rankings from February to March.
Like most mid-tier running backs, Allgeier’s draft capital will decide his value. If he sneaks into day two, he will gain some value, as most third-round running backs get at least some role early in their NFL careers. However, if he falls to day three, he will likely lose value, as those players are often pure backups or need an injury ahead of him to get a shot. Even Elijah Mitchell from last year wasn’t the starter until Raheem Mostert suffered a season-ending injury in week one.
Conclusion
Allgeier is an intriguing prospect, but I’m not sure he would’ve gotten much attention in stronger draft classes. I like him for his receiving ability and his workhorse upside. He has the requisite size to play running back in the NFL, and he could fit in various roles. Therefore, it’s less important to me which team drafts him and more important that he gets draft capital. I’ll be watching the NFL Draft closely to see when his name gets called.
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