2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Brian Robinson, RB Alabama
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2022 NFL Draft Prospect Brian Robinson, RB from Alabama. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
I find Robinson to be a highly interesting prospect. He’s been at Alabama for five years, but he never saw much work until the 2021 season. Alabama is always in the spotlight, especially for their running backs, so he’s a familiar name for dynasty managers and NFL teams. But, it’s tough to evaluate someone who did almost nothing until his fifth college season. So, let’s jump into Robinson’s full story.
The Stats
Robinson was a four-star high school prospect entering Alabama in 2017. He came into a running back room, including high-profile recruit Najee Harris, incumbent starter Damien Harris, future first-rounder Josh Jacobs, and future NFL journeyman Bo Scarbrough.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
He barely saw any playing time in 2017, especially since quarterback Jalen Hurts took 154 carries to lead the team. Then, in 2018, he saw a slight uptick in work, taking the RB4 role from Scarbrough when he went to the NFL. However, Najee Harris, Damien Harris, and Jacobs remained the clear top backs, limiting Robinson to only 63 carries for 272 yards and two touchdowns.
But in 2019, Damien Harris and Jacobs left for the NFL, leaving Najee Harris as the clear starter with Robinson as his backup. Unfortunately, Alabama failed to recruit any significant replacements to take carries in 2019 and 2020, so Robinson continued as Harris’ backup. He didn’t do anything overly impressive, but he saw about seven carries per game and was adequate in the backup role.
Typically, the 2020 season would have been the end of Robinson’s career, as he played four seasons without a redshirt year. If his college career ended after 2020, he wouldn’t have been on the NFL Draft radar whatsoever. Maybe he would’ve signed as a UDFA after the 2021 NFL Draft, but he wasn’t a serious NFL prospect at that time.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic changed college football’s eligibility rules, allowing him to play a fifth year in 2021. Robinson shined in 2021, taking a whopping 271 carries for 1,343 yards and 14 touchdowns. Most impressively, he had 35 catches for 296 yards and two touchdowns, showing receiving upside. Unfortunately, he wasn’t efficient, only averaging 5.0 YPC, which isn’t great for an Alabama running back.
It’s so odd to evaluate a prospect who essentially only had a chance to shine because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Without his fifth year, Robinson has no value. It’s somewhat scary that he only found true success as a 22-year old fifth-year senior, both in his ability to climb Alabama’s depth chart and playing against younger, less experienced competition. Other than playing at Alabama, Robinson’s statistical profile is honestly terrible.
The Film
I always like to put a disclaimer at the start of any section on film analysis I write. I’m certainly no film expert, especially with college tape. However, I can still watch players and have takeaways, and I want to share my opinion on what I saw.
With Robinson, I think it’s only important to watch games from his 2021 breakout season. Those are the only times where he played as a starter, and he won’t be fantasy-relevant in his role from 2017 to 2020. Let’s start with his game versus Miami, where he saw 12 carries for 60 yards and two catches for no yards.
Robinson’s first impressive moment in this game came around the 1:35 mark, when he took a run to the outside and shook off two tacklers, gaining extra yards. Outside of that run, he didn’t particularly have many highlights. Unlike some of those other Alabama running backs, it seems like he was more of a secondary option to the passing game.
Alabama’s offense ran primarily through quarterback Bryce Young, who looked stellar in this same video. I can see why Young is a contender for the 2023 top overall pick, and I understand why Alabama chose to focus more on the passing game, especially as they won 44-13. However, it felt like Robinson served as a running back whose job was not to lose the game and avoid mistakes, rather than someone who would add value.
To give Robinson a fair chance, I wanted to look at another game, this time against Texas A&M, where he had 24 carries for 147 yards and four catches for 60 yards.
Robinson’s first notable snap in this game was a fumble in a short-yardage situation, which he lost. However, after that mistake, Alabama went back to him as their featured back, and he continued to play well. Then, around 5:35, Robinson had a nice run, where he cut through the defense, displaying an impressive read to change direction near the line of scrimmage. If he can make plays like that consistently, he’ll have a role at the NFL level.
Additionally, I liked seeing him involved in the passing game, which he showed at 6:25. Even though the pass wasn’t perfect, he caught a flare route and turned it into a massive gain. Adjusting to inaccurate throws will be critical, especially as many throws to the running back in the NFL are dump-offs with the quarterback under pressure.
Overall, I thought Robinson was a fine player, but nothing special. I doubt that he will succeed without a superior offense around him and without being the oldest and most mature player on the field. He isn’t overly athletic, and NFL defenders will be able to match up to his size. I see him similar to how it felt like Alabama saw him: someone who won’t be a game-breaker but someone you can trust.
The Measurables
Robinson has an interesting profile from the measurable perspective.
As you can see, he had a decent performance in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, running a 4.53-second time. But unfortunately, he finished near the bottom of all running backs in the vertical jump and in the bottom half of the broad jump. He did measure in as a larger running back, though, which means that his speed and jumping results aren’t particularly concerning, especially as he profiles more as a power back anyway.
His NFL Prospect Grade is decent, ranking fifth in this class. He ranks ahead of Rachaad White, James Cook, and Kyren Williams, all notable running backs this year. Additionally, his top comparison from his NFL scouting report is Chris Carson, which makes perfect sense according to his measurements. I’m not saying he will be the same player as Carson, but they share some traits as older prospects who failed to capture a starting role for most of their college careers.
Dynasty Value
Robinson came in as the RB8 and 22nd overall player in DLF’s March 1QB rookie ADP, and he’s RB9 and 24th overall in DLF’s consensus rookie rankings. I essentially concur with that value, as I have him RB8 and 23rd overall in my 1QB rookie rankings. However, his ranking almost entirely depends on his draft capital.
If an NFL team sees something in him and picks him on day two, I will be in on Robinson, despite his age. There’s no chance that Robinson enters the NFL as a clear starter, but there are a few landing spots I could foresee him having a fantasy-relevant role as either a handcuff or a true complement. The Chargers at 79th overall as a complement to Austin Ekeler would be a sensible landing spot for Robinson, as his skill set overlaps well with Ekeler’s.
But, if he falls to day three, I can’t imagine drafting him, as he will likely serve in a limited, bruiser role. Those types of players rarely succeed in fantasy football, as they don’t see many carries and rarely get passing-game involvement. Instead, they typically serve to absorb tough yards from the more talented running back on the team and have no real fantasy value.
Conclusion
It’s tough for me to get past the two massive red flags in Robinson’s profile, his age and his fifth-year breakout. Even if I draft him onto my dynasty team, I’m only taking him to sell him later if he breaks out. Robinson will never be a player I want to hold long-term or someone I value as a high-end dynasty asset.
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