2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Christian Watson, WR North Dakota State
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2022 NFL Draft Prospect Christian Watson, WR from North Dakota State. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
Small school prospects are always tough to evaluate for both NFL teams and the general public. Questions about level of competition and how those players will translate to the pros always looms large even when there is upside. But, with the emergence of recent FCS players like Cooper Kupp, there is an even more watchful eye trying to find the next big WR. Christian Watson may fit the bill and prove to not only be a great NFL asset, but a tremendous fantasy asset as well.
The Stats
Statistics from Stats.com.
Pure stats are the weakness of Watson’s profile. He was a late bloomer in high school (thus going to FCS North Dakota State) and took some time to develop at the college level. His receiving yards per game improved every season, showing his improvement over time. He added in some rushing usage on end-arounds and trick plays. This showcases a diverse skillset NFL teams will like.
Data from David Willsey and Peter Howard via DLF Prospect Analytics App.
NDSU was a rushing team first and foremost who built their team from the trenches outward. Even despite never breaking 1,000 yards receiving in a season, Watson boasted a 40% market share, the fifth-highest in this WR class. Even with the raw stats not being great, he was a major part of the NDSU passing game late in his career and showed he was an alpha WR at the FCS level.
The Film
The film tells the real story of why Watson is an NFL prospect. Numerous times, he ends up wide open down the field a step or two past his coverage. At his size and speed, Watson can get down the field in a hurry. Not only that, but when utilized in the middle of the field, he becomes difficult to tackle in the open field (thus him being used in the rushing game often).
Watson wins in multiple ways as well. Not only does he has the straight-line speed, but his long arms and physicality off the snap often lead to him getting by press coverage and flying into his route. It is reminiscent of an NCAA ‘14-created recruit WR just dominating.
His route running is incredible as well. The Senior Bowl was a great showcase of this where Watson got to run a full route tree while man-to-man with big-time FBS corners and safeties. He showed little wasted motion in his cuts and faked out DBs day in and day out.
Slants, outs, crosses, and more were near perfection in practices and he would consistently get open and catch the ball. Since NDSU didn’t utilize an extensive route tree, this helped ease some of those fears of transition from FCS to the NFL
In addition, Watson is an electric kick returner which should help him get on the field. Though it may not help much for fantasy purposes, if he shows special teams ability, teams will want to get the ball in his hands on offense too.
Overall, the film is EXCELLENT for Watson. He looks the part of an NFL receiver and has a lot of the small requisite skills needed to be an NFL starter. The sky is the limit for his NFL and fantasy potential.
The Measurables
Measurements are a big deal for small school players. Typically, if they are not recruited to big-time schools, it is due to a lack of overall athletic ability and this can sink their NFL value. Watson looked the part on film, but does he have the athleticism to match NFL talent? The answer is yes.
Here is Watson’s RAS score via Kent Lee Platte:
Watson is literally elite in everything except his weight (which is still pretty darn good for a WR). He had one of the best (99.5 percentile) broad jumps ever and with a 4.36-second 40-yard dash and a 1.45 10-yard split (99.8% percentile) he is FAST off the line. Though the agility scores may take him out of being in the absolute top tier of WRs ever in terms of athleticism, it is unlikely to dip far. Watson is an elite athlete at a great size.
If we take his Scouting Combine and convert it to Speed Score, he has the second-best speed score in the entire class.
Data from David Willsey and Peter Howard via DLF Prospect Analytics App.
His measurables are elite and it just adds to an already great profile.
Dynasty Value
In one-quarterback leagues, Watson is currently going as the WR9 off the board in rookie drafts and 13th overall rookie at the 2.01.
Going after WRs like David Bell (who has a poor athletic profile) and Jahan Dotson (who does not have the size to be a big-time fantasy producer) is egregious. Watson continues to be a great value and if he ends up in round two of the NFL Draft, he will have a chance to contribute immediately.
Conclusion
The shortcomings in Watson rely on pure statistics and being an FCS prospect. There is little doubt when watching him and seeing the athletic upside that Watson can be a dominant NFL weapon.
His value is unlikely to get any lower than it is right now. If you have a rookie draft before the NFL Draft, go and get him at current value. If he goes on day two in the NFL Draft, even in a mediocre landing spot, take him in a rookie draft and reap the benefits.
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Dynasty Rookies In The Top 100 - April 14, 2024
- Post-Combine Superflex Rookie Rankings: Round Three - March 8, 2024
- Post-Combine Superflex Rookie Rankings: Round Two - March 7, 2024
