Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Josh Jacobs or a Random 2023 First-Round Rookie Pick?
Welcome to Would You Rather: Dynasty Edition, a series from DLF based on the popular board game. Each week we post a poll on Twitter asking fans who they prefer between a player or a certain pick.
However, in honor of March officially being named trade month, we are analyzing a trade that was shared with us. The values used here are via the DLF Trade Analyzer. We will cover the results and discuss both sides of the poll in depth. Let’s get right to it!
Josh Jacobs vs Random 2023 First-Round Rookie Pick
Last week we covered a trade involving Rashod Bateman plus picks versus Michael Pittman plus picks. This poll was a bit closer than the one we highlighted last week but voters still preferred the random 2023 first over Jacobs by an almost 30% margin.
Which do you prefer?
— DLF (@DLFootball) March 8, 2022
If it is anything above a mid-first pick in 2023, then the trade analyzer favors the draft pick. For the entirety of this series thus far, the trade analyzer and the polls have been in tune.
Data Courtesy DLF Trade Analyzer.
Using the DLF trade finder, we see that this exact trade went down on January 11th. We included some other trades from that date range as well to give you a glimpse of the perceived value of Jacobs.
We see a couple of package deals as well as the straight-up trade for the first-rounder. Let’s move on to discussing each side of the deal in depth to see which side reigns supreme.
A Case for Josh Jacobs
There seems to be no middle ground on how people feel about Jacobs. Dynasty managers seem to either love him or hate the Alabama alum. Regardless of where you stand, it is hard to deny his production. Jacobs has been an RB1 or RB2 each of his three seasons in the league, including an RB8 finish in 2020.
Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
The 24-year-old now has a new coach and some serious weapons on offense to help take some of the pressure off the running game. Josh McDaniels was hired back on January 31st and the Las Vegas Raiders made a blockbuster trade to acquire Davante Adams on March 17th.
Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.
McDaniels is no stranger to coaching his running backs to solid fantasy finishes. In every season he has been a head coach or offensive coordinator, his offense has provided an RB1 or an RB2 finish every year, topping out in 2018 when James White finished as the RB6.
Damien Harris was a borderline RB1 in 2021 under his guidance, finishing as the RB13 despite playing in just 15 games. The former teammate of Jacobs at Alabama had 15 rushing touchdowns last year. With Adams now in town to force the defense to back off the line of scrimmage, Jacobs should have more room to one in 2022, making him a candidate to record his third consecutive RB1 finish.
Data Courtesy of DLF Startup Dynasty ADP.
For some reason, Jacobs is getting the Rodney Dangerfield treatment when it comes to startup drafts, as he is coming off the board as RB17. This is great value considering the fantasy production the former three-star recruit has put up early on in his career.
A Case For the Random 2023 First
Last week we covered what a mid-first would look like in the battle of Bateman versus Pittman. For the sake of argument, we will presume this was a higher 2023 first to shake things up. With all the stars aligning for Jacobs and the arrow pointing up, it will likely take that to get him now anyway.
Data Courtesy of DLF Devy Rankings.
To get the 1.01 next year it may take your first-round pick as well as Jacobs, but then you would be seriously upgrading at the position if Bijan Robinson lives up to the hype. Even if you just swap the 1.04, you are adding Jahmyr Gibbs at 21 years old (in 2023) instead of having a fifth-year, 26-year-old running back on your squad.
If you don’t like Robinson or Gibbs (we aren’t sure why you wouldn’t), Bryce Young or CJ Stroud are always options at the quarterback position. They could be long-term assets for you as well. If wide receiver tickles your fancy, then the players we discussed last week (Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kayshon Boutte) would be an option.
Conclusion
As is the case with anything dynasty-related, team needs, league size, scoring, and aversion to risk play a role in how you construct your roster. This year would be the perfect time to sell Jacobs. There is plenty of data out there covering what happens to rushers around their age-26 seasons. If you can get younger at the position and get potentially better talent at the same time, it is worth giving a little extra to get that return on your investment.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
- 2025 Dynasty Rookie Early Look Recap - February 7, 2025
- 2024 Division Buy/Sell/Hold Recap - August 26, 2024
- 2024 Navigating Dynasty Rookie Drafts Recap - August 23, 2024
Welcome to Would You Rather: Dynasty Edition, a series from DLF based on the popular board game. Each week we post a poll on Twitter asking fans who they prefer between a player or a certain pick.
However, in honor of March officially being named trade month, we are analyzing a trade that was shared with us. The values used here are via the DLF Trade Analyzer. We will cover the results and discuss both sides of the poll in depth. Let’s get right to it!
Josh Jacobs vs Random 2023 First-Round Rookie Pick
Last week we covered a trade involving Rashod Bateman plus picks versus Michael Pittman plus picks. This poll was a bit closer than the one we highlighted last week but voters still preferred the random 2023 first over Jacobs by an almost 30% margin.
Which do you prefer?
— DLF (@DLFootball) March 8, 2022
If it is anything above a mid-first pick in 2023, then the trade analyzer favors the draft pick. For the entirety of this series thus far, the trade analyzer and the polls have been in tune.
Data Courtesy DLF Trade Analyzer.
Using the DLF trade finder, we see that this exact trade went down on January 11th. We included some other trades from that date range as well to give you a glimpse of the perceived value of Jacobs.
We see a couple of package deals as well as the straight-up trade for the first-rounder. Let’s move on to discussing each side of the deal in depth to see which side reigns supreme.
A Case for Josh Jacobs
There seems to be no middle ground on how people feel about Jacobs. Dynasty managers seem to either love him or hate the Alabama alum. Regardless of where you stand, it is hard to deny his production. Jacobs has been an RB1 or RB2 each of his three seasons in the league, including an RB8 finish in 2020.
Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
The 24-year-old now has a new coach and some serious weapons on offense to help take some of the pressure off the running game. Josh McDaniels was hired back on January 31st and the Las Vegas Raiders made a blockbuster trade to acquire Davante Adams on March 17th.
Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.
McDaniels is no stranger to coaching his running backs to solid fantasy finishes. In every season he has been a head coach or offensive coordinator, his offense has provided an RB1 or an RB2 finish every year, topping out in 2018 when James White finished as the RB6.
Damien Harris was a borderline RB1 in 2021 under his guidance, finishing as the RB13 despite playing in just 15 games. The former teammate of Jacobs at Alabama had 15 rushing touchdowns last year. With Adams now in town to force the defense to back off the line of scrimmage, Jacobs should have more room to one in 2022, making him a candidate to record his third consecutive RB1 finish.
Data Courtesy of DLF Startup Dynasty ADP.
For some reason, Jacobs is getting the Rodney Dangerfield treatment when it comes to startup drafts, as he is coming off the board as RB17. This is great value considering the fantasy production the former three-star recruit has put up early on in his career.
A Case For the Random 2023 First
Last week we covered what a mid-first would look like in the battle of Bateman versus Pittman. For the sake of argument, we will presume this was a higher 2023 first to shake things up. With all the stars aligning for Jacobs and the arrow pointing up, it will likely take that to get him now anyway.
Data Courtesy of DLF Devy Rankings.
To get the 1.01 next year it may take your first-round pick as well as Jacobs, but then you would be seriously upgrading at the position if Bijan Robinson lives up to the hype. Even if you just swap the 1.04, you are adding Jahmyr Gibbs at 21 years old (in 2023) instead of having a fifth-year, 26-year-old running back on your squad.
If you don’t like Robinson or Gibbs (we aren’t sure why you wouldn’t), Bryce Young or CJ Stroud are always options at the quarterback position. They could be long-term assets for you as well. If wide receiver tickles your fancy, then the players we discussed last week (Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kayshon Boutte) would be an option.
Conclusion
As is the case with anything dynasty-related, team needs, league size, scoring, and aversion to risk play a role in how you construct your roster. This year would be the perfect time to sell Jacobs. There is plenty of data out there covering what happens to rushers around their age-26 seasons. If you can get younger at the position and get potentially better talent at the same time, it is worth giving a little extra to get that return on your investment.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
- 2025 Dynasty Rookie Early Look Recap - February 7, 2025
- 2024 Division Buy/Sell/Hold Recap - August 26, 2024
- 2024 Navigating Dynasty Rookie Drafts Recap - August 23, 2024
