2022 Coaching Changes: Kevin O’Connell to the Minnesota Vikings
Savvy fantasy football managers focus on all positions of a football team. This includes the coaching staff. Changes in the off-season can have a huge impact on the production of skill players at certain positions. We are taking a look at one of the nine coaches who have found new homes and examining the potential dynasty impact on the key members of that team.
The ‘Skol Offense Gets a Shot in the Arm
It is not surprising that another branch of the Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay coaching tree landed a head gig. The Minnesota Vikings are the latest franchise to hire a young, up-and-coming offensive mind. The announcement was made just three days after Kevin O’Connell won a Super Bowl as the Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator.
Besides McVay, O’Connell has coached under the likes of Jay Gruden, Chip Kelly, and Mike Pettine. Interestingly enough, the former college and NFL quarterback landed in Washington when McVay left to be the head coach of the Rams. The protégé was the quarterbacks coach in 2017 and 2018 in the district before becoming the offensive coordinator in 2019. He then made a lateral move and went to Los Angeles in 2020. We will examine how we think the Minnesota offense will look under his tutelage.
Quarterback
On March 13th, the new front office with a new head coach decided they would not go with a new quarterback until at least after the 2023 season. Kirk Cousins signed a one-year extension to keep him in Minnesota until at least 2024. Terms were not announced, but according to overthecap.com, it was signed for about $35.25 million with $30 million guaranteed. There is no quarterback controversy here.
Kirk Cousins
Former Washington quarterback Cousins just completed yet another ho-hum QB1 season, the sixth time in the last seven years the underrated signal-caller has achieved this milestone. While he does not have the highs that players such as Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson have had over the past several years, Cousins has been just as consistent.
Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
Despite not having the top-five potential that Rodgers or Wilson does, the cost to acquire the veteran is much cheaper. Whether it is through a startup draft, or via trade, you can get similar production for a fraction of the cost. Cousins is also the same age as the new Denver quarterback and five years younger than the signal-caller for Green Bay.
Data Courtesy of DLF Startup ADP.
We have a sort of chicken or the egg question that has to be raised with O’Connell. Did the yearly improvement with his quarterbacks come from the coaching they received or did it come because the quarterbacks were simply more talented each season?
Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.
The progression of the signal-callers he has coached as an offensive coordinator look like this:
- 2019 – Washington – Case Keenum (QB31)
- 2020 – Los Angeles – Jared Goff (QB18)
- 2021 – Los Angeles – Matthew Stafford (QB5)
Cousins should see some more success in 2022 than he did under the Kubiaks (Klint and Gary) over the past two seasons. The hire should be a good fit for both parties involved.
Running Back
The Vikings are set up well at the running back position, with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison both under contract. Kene Nwangwu has also shown flashes on special teams and could be in line to back up Cook should Mattison depart when he becomes a free agent in 2023.
Dalvin Cook
There are no signs of the Florida State alum slowing down any time soon.
The 26-year-old finished 11th in fantasy points per game in PPR formats in 2021. The biggest problem the veteran has faced has been staying on the field. Cook has yet to complete a full season and has in fact only played in 56 of a possible 81 regular-season games.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Despite all of the missed time, the five-year pro has finished as an RB1 or RB2 for three consecutive seasons, including an RB2 finish in 2020 even though he participated in just 14 games. The injuries have been somewhat random except for the shoulder and ankle issues. Those seem to pop up regularly.
An O’Connell-led offense has never had much success for fantasy purposes at the position, but he has also never been able to coach someone with the talent of Cook.
Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.
Wide Receiver
Minnesota is also set at the wide receiver position for the foreseeable future. Adam Thielen just restructured his contract to make sure he will be around for at least another season. Justin Jefferson still has two years left on his rookie contract and KJ Osborn showed a ton of potential in 2021 during the 2021 campaign, his second in the NFL. Olabisi Johnson and Ihmir Smith-Marsette are also developmental talents on the roster who could one day provide some production.
Justin Jefferson
There is not a lot to say about Jefferson that you do not already know. He is a straight stud. The LSU alum has finished in the top six both years he has been in the league. Even before getting an offensive-minded coach in town, the Vikings wideouts have thrived in a pass-heavy offense as evidenced by the finishes for Jefferson and Thielen.
Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
Going back to Jefferson alone, we find the model of consistency we all desire in the players we roster in fantasy football. Only once did the star wideout score less than 11.8 PPR points across the 17 game season. The 22nd overall pick in the 2020 draft has never missed an NFL game, so durability is not a concern either.
Data Courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
Thielen and Osborn will have their roles in this offense and every once in a while will have a breakout game, but make no mistake, Jefferson is the Cooper Kupp of this O’Connell-led offense. There is room for production for the others as a WR2 or WR3 on your roster. There is no doubt about that, but Jefferson is the alpha you want.
Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.
Tight End
Here we find our first potential position of need for the Vikings and perhaps the weakest position in an O’Connell run offense. The only two tight ends under contract in Minnesota are Irv Smith Jr and Ben Ellefson. Tyler Conklin filled in admirably while Smith was hurt in 2021 but has since departed to the Big Apple, signing a three-year, $21 million deal with the Jets on March 16th. This leaves the oft-injured Smith Jr atop the depth chart.
Irv Smith Jr
Even though Smith Jr has been in the league for three seasons and has some solid draft capital (50th overall in 2020), the Vikings probably still do not know what they have in their young tight end. The Alabama star missed all of 2021 due to injury and only has 90 targets across two years and was only able to turn those looks into 66 catches for 676 yards and seven touchdowns.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
On a positive note, five of his seven touchdowns came in 2020 despite playing in just 13 games. Those numbers still only earned Smith a TE26 finish that season as he averaged just 7.4 PPR points per game, good for 24th among tight ends.
Data Courtesy DLF Coaching History App.
Smith Jr might be just good enough to do what O’Connell needs him to do. His offense has never produced a TE1 and the best finish at the position came in 2021 when Tyler Higbee managed a TE14 finish in just 15 games.
Conclusion
What was a middle-of-the-road offense in terms of scoring (15th) in 2021 should improve on the 25.0 points per game produced last season. Minnesota was 10th in total offense with 362.8 yards per contest. Those numbers should also improve under O’Connell. The team has weapons at most of the skill positions and should be competitive in 2022.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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