The DLF Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag

Hey, loyal Dynasty League Football universe. I’ll be answering your mailbag questions this off-season and couldn’t be more excited to do so. The off-season is when dynasty league managers get to sit back and relax.

Wait.

That’s completely incorrect. The off-season is when we refine our strategies, look back at the year that’s past, the year to come, and everything in between. If you missed the last mailbag, you can find that here. For this week’s questions, I asked the Twitterverse for some help. Going forward, you can send your questions to the DLF mailbag. Let’s dig in!

Hey, I need some questions for the @DLFootball mailbag. What you got world?

— Shane says (@ShaneIsTheWorst) March 16, 2022

I find future value speculations to be super interesting.

So, who are your projected top 5 RBs one year from now?

— Will Dennison (@TheGiantNinja) March 16, 2022

You could project this in a number of ways, ADP, rankings, production etc., but I’m going to use ADP as our barometer. In DLF’s latest mock drafts, the top five running backs coming off the board are Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, and Christian McCaffrey.

I’ll go chalk with Taylor, Harris and Swift remaining in the top five this time next year. I’m booting McCaffrey out of the top five. He will be nearly 27 years old this time next year. Typically running backs see a steep decrease in production after their age 26 seasons, and McCaffrey is coming off two injury-plagued seasons, and it’s hard to envision his value increasing over the next year.

I’m also kicking Javonte Williams out of the top five. He is talented, and if Melvin Gordon does not return, I expect his ADP to creep up even further. My concern with Williams is that he has never been a back who handles a full workload, and we don’t know that he would continue to be as efficient as he was last year (and in college) if forced to do so. In college he shared a backfield with Michael Carter, and last year’s 246 touches were a career-high. While I believe Williams will have a good season, I see a couple of other backs who are going to leap him and McCaffrey in next season’s ADP.

Breece Hall is the RB17, and that’s before he’s on an NFL roster. Hall dominated statistically in college, and then ran roughshod over the NFL Combine.

With Hall expected to be the first back off the board, possibly in the first round of the NFL Draft, his prospect profile continues to improve. If you look at the history of the rookie RB1 of the class, as long as they produce they quickly move up in ADP, with Najee Harris being the latest example.

That gives us Hall, Taylor, Harris, and Swift as four of our top five running backs in ADP next year, and rounding out the top five is Cam Akers. Entering the 2022 season as the RB11, and five of the running backs ahead of him either already 26 years old, or soon to be, the moment is nigh for Akers to ascend to the top five. While he didn’t look special after his return from a torn Achilles, he’s clearly special for even being able to play football less than six months after tearing it in the first place.

The Rams offense is set up perfectly for a running back to smash next year. They still have Cooper Kupp, and added Allen Robinson, which means Akers will rarely if ever see any stacked boxes. Sean McVay has shown in the past that he favors one feature back, when possible, and Akers should see a majority of the backfield work next year.

Last year Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson combined for over 1,800 yards and 13 total touchdowns, and most of that work will be Akers this coming season. The Rams also scored the sixth-most touchdowns per game in the league which should only continue in 2022 placing Akers in position for a crooked number of rushing touchdowns, since he also is lucky enough not to have to compete with a quarterback to steal those goal-line looks. Akers breakout is coming as is his leap in ADP.

Dobbins vs Gibson (.5ppr)

— Dresdon Rohrer (@dresrohrer) March 16, 2022

Both of these running backs come with some risk. JK Dobbins is returning from a torn ACL, the Ravens haven’t shown that they will commit to one back, and he has to compete with Lamar Jackson for rushing yards and touchdowns.

Antonio Gibson fumbled six times last year, losing four, and was often an afterthought in the passing game when JD McKissic was healthy.

It’s possible that Gibson’s increased receiving usage could have been due to his shin injury improving as well. He finished as an RB7 or better in five of his final eight games last year, and even with McKissic returning to Washington it’s hard to ignore that production. Even if Gibson is forced to share targets with McKissic, he’s unlikely to have to share goal-line looks with anyone, and has the higher upside compared to Dobbins so I prefer Gibson next year and long-term in dynasty.

28 teams, RB Zeke for 1.14 pick, thoughts?

— Andre Esters (@dreski83) March 16, 2022

Even though Ezekiel Elliott has seen his fantasy scoring decrease for four straight seasons, and is now entering his age-27 season, the 1.14 just is not enough for me to move off of him. I’m not a fan of trading players for singular picks, especially not a pick that low.

Even if Elliott is nothing more than an RB2 now, that production likely will far exceed what you can expect from the pick. This being a 28-team league also changes the calculus as well. In normal start-one-quarterback leagues, the 1.14 is currently Malik Willis, which would be a good get in this format, but this format almost assuredly dictates that QBs are more highly valued and Willis will be off the board well before the pick.

A 28-team league is closer in spirit to a superflex league, and in superflex rookie drafts, players in that range include George Pickens, David Bell, and Desmond Ridder. The risk of these players busting and providing you no production, and quickly losing most of their value doesn’t outweigh the diminishing production you should receive from Zeke.

I’d hold out unless I could get back a couple of 2022 picks. Barring that I would look to move Zeke during the season when points are more valuable and his production should garner you a couple of 2023 second-round picks.

The DLF Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag