Dynasty Decision: Joe Mixon
One of my favorite things about dynasty is the difference in opinion that each individual has when it comes to what to do with high-priced players as they begin to reach that final peak value point.
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds.
I wanted to dive into a few players who are approaching the point at which we expect their value to decline. Should you be holding onto them and making the most of their production. Should you be moving them on and getting a return before their price plummets?
Up next…
Joe Mixon, RB CIN
For a while, Mixon seemed like a dynasty tease. He never quite put it together, then last year, he finished as the RB4. Will this production continue as part of a high-powered offense led by Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins or will he start to fall away as he approaches the dread running back age cliff.
PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE
Mixon’s talent has never been in question. It has always been a question of whether he’d be utilized and will he stay healthy. Despite averaging over 16 points per game three times in his five-year career, Mixon only finished as a top-five performer this last year. This is in large part to the fact Mixon has only played 16 games twice. Injuries are par for the course when discussing running backs. However, he seems to have more than his fair share during the first four years of his career.
When he is on the field, his performance has been excellent. Mixon has finished as a top-12 RB 34.85% of his games which sounds impressive, but quite a way behind the elite tier players like Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, and Najee Harris, who are all at or above 50%.
SITUATION AND USAGE
A lot of the argument before last season projecting a breakout for Mixon was centered around the increased usage in the passing game based on Giovani Bernard leaving. However, in 2021 that just wasn’t the case. As you can see from the splits app, the passing game usage for Mixon with and without Bernard is almost identical.
The difference in 2021 compared to previous seasons was that Mixon scored more touchdowns. Having never scored double-digit touchdowns, he found pay dirt 16 times in 2021. An increase in touchdowns is often a concern moving forward as it can be seen as a ground for regression. Mixon saw a significant spike in the frequency with which he scored a touchdown.
However, while the percentage of total team touchdowns was a career-high in 2021 at 30.8%, it wasn’t hugely different from the 2019 and 2018 numbers. The reason is that the Bengals offense took a huge step forward as a whole with Burrow in his second year and Chase joining him.
Projecting for 2022 and beyond, it is hard to see this offense taking a huge step back. Investments are expected along the offensive line, and Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are certainly ascending. Double-digit touchdowns should be expected for Mixon yet again this year.
HEALTH
As mentioned, health has been a bit of a stumbling block. Mixon has missed time in every season before 2021, largely down to a variety of niggly injuries. The only significant injury he had was the ankle sprain in 2020, where he missed ten games. However, a large part of that was him being held out as they had nothing to pay for.
There is no significant track record of repetitive injury that is expected to crop up time and time again. However, now he is 25 years old, we could see an increase in his frequency of injuries. It is a concern but not more than any other back at the same point in their career.
ADP AND TRADE VALUE
Mixon is the dynasty RB8 and 20th overall player in February ADP.
The Trade Analyzer values him as worth more than the 1.01 in a one-QB league. As you can see from the trade finder, the value of Mixon in actual trades is probably a little less than that. He’s currently my RB9, so I think he is appropriately valued. However, he is one of those players who seems to have a wide-ranging value depending on who you are talking to. Mixon fans speak about him as the most talented back in the league. At the same time, others don’t value him as anything more than an RB2.
CONCLUSION
Mixon is precisely at that point where you need to make the decision. This is his final season at peak value. As a running back heading into his sixth season, the only place his value will head is down. Even if he put up another elite top-five season, his dynasty value is unlikely to increase.
So now comes the question: do you need him to win a title? If the answer is yes, could you potentially pivot to a younger player in a similar tier to keep the same production but buyback years? Alternatively, you could add a small piece to move into the D’Andre Swift or Najee Harris range. The challenge you will have trying to move off Mixon is that we’re in the off-season period where people don’t want to buy aging running backs. The right move is probably to wait until after the draft and sell then.
If you’re in a contending position and want to push your chips into the middle, I would try to float a younger back in the tier or two below to see if you gain a significant uptick in production. Antonio Gibson seems an obvious player you could pivot to. Mixon has one and possibly two years left of elite production, so it’s a question of how much you’re willing to pay for that when the cliff is approaching fast.
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