2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Trey McBride, TE Colorado State

Tyler Justin Karp

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2022 NFL Draft Prospect Trey McBride, TE from Colorado State. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.

Unlike last year, there is no Kyle Pitts in this tight end rookie class. Additionally, this year’s group doesn’t even contain anyone like TJ Hockenson or Noah Fant from the 2019 class or the many top prospects from the vaunted 2017 tight end class like Evan Engram, OJ Howard, or David Njoku.

However, I expect McBride to be the top tight end this year, both in the NFL Draft and for dynasty formats. Let’s take a look at what that means for his dynasty outlook.

The Stats

McBride had an interesting career at Colorado State.

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Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.

He essentially only saw significant playing time in two seasons, as he did little as a true freshman in 2018, and Colorado State missed most of the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But in 2019, he broke out with 45 receptions for 560 yards and four touchdowns.

Of course, his NFL Draft stock mostly comes from his 2021 performance, as he won the John Mackey Award for the top tight end in college football, and he was a consensus All-American. But, most impressively, he dominated Colorado State’s passing offense.

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Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.

It’s rare for any college tight end to lead their team in receptions or receiving yards, but McBride had more than double his nearest competition in both categories. At the very least, he proved he can serve as a top weapon on his team, which he will need to do to find fantasy relevance in the NFL. However, his one touchdown on massive volume is undoubtedly a negative and is honestly rather shocking. It’s very reminiscent of Pitts’ 2021 rookie season, though.

The Film

I always like to put a disclaimer at the start of any section on film analysis I write. I’m certainly no film expert, especially with college tape. However, I can still watch players and have takeaways, and I want to share my opinion on what I saw.

Unfortunately, the DLF film database doesn’t have any entries for McBride, so I had to go to YouTube to try and find some videos on him.

That video shows his highlights from his senior season. Of course, highlights aren’t the best way to evaluate film, but they do show his potential and what he could be in the NFL at his best. As I mentioned earlier, the Colorado State offense centered around McBride, often using him as its first read. The film, therefore, matches the statistical output, where he far exceeded the other receiving weapons on the roster.

He also displayed excellent contested-catch ability and severely outmatched his defenders multiple times. I loved how he could both outmuscle defenders and use his route running to get away from them. He will need to have more than one way to get open and catch passes at the NFL level, as he isn’t an athletic marvel with either his speed or his strength.

I couldn’t find too many good full games on YouTube, but there was an excellent video from his early-season contest against Vanderbilt.

The first play of the video displays precisely what I want to see from an NFL tight end. He lines up as if he’s blocking on the left side of the formation before crossing over to the right side on a short route. Today’s NFL focuses on quick passing for short to medium gains, so that play would work well in an NFL offense.

However, there’s a lot of mediocre blocking in this game. Luckily, I don’t see a lack of effort on these snaps. He looks like he’s trying his best to block well, but he isn’t so great at it.

An NFL team that drafts McBride has to know that he simply isn’t going to be an excellent blocker at the NFL level. They should not expect him to be George Kittle or prime Rob Gronkowski. But his blocking isn’t a disaster, like revolving door Evan Engram or someone like Mike Gesicki, who essentially had to become a wide receiver in the NFL. He reminds me of Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper as above-average receivers who are willing blockers, even if it’s not their strong suit. Additionally, both of those tight ends typically line up in-line, not in the slot, as I expect McBride to do in the NFL.

The Measurables

McBride oddly didn’t do so well at the NFL Combine, especially in light of his strong tape.

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Chart courtesy of NFL.

He finished second-to-last in the broad jump while landing in the bottom half in the bench press and the vertical jump. Unfortunately, he declined to participate in the other drills, so there’s not much else to judge him on from the NFL Combine.

Luckily, McBride relies on more than pure athleticism to win as a receiver. He impressed in other areas, including this amazing catch.

He also boasts excellent size at his height and weight, plus impressive hands. Honestly, his poor performance in the bench press isn’t surprising, as he isn’t the strongest blocker and may not excel in a test of pure strength. But I think it’s apparent that he has the measurables to succeed at the NFL level, at least as a receiver. And, of course, fantasy managers care far more about receiving ability than blocking skills. I believe the NFL will watch his tape and see that he’s an excellent receiver instead of relying on these limited testing numbers.

Dynasty Value

Right now, McBride is the rookie TE1 and 21st overall player in March’s DLF 1QB rookie ADP. I see a massive gap between him and TE2 Jalen Wydermeyer, especially given his projected draft capital.

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Chart courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.

As you can see, McBride consistently falls in the second round, which is where I expect him to go in the NFL Draft in April. Assuming he does, I find him easy to rank in the context of the dynasty tight end landscape.

He will fall behind my clear top-12 tight ends and the top-12 in DLF’s tight end rankings and February startup ADP data. However, beyond that consensus top-12, I will likely rank McBride at TE13. I prefer him over uninteresting or unproven options like Cole Kmet, Irv Smith Jr, Hunter Henry, or Albert Okwuegbunam, who rank as TE13-TE16 in my personal ranks.

Conclusion

If McBride’s current price holds, I could easily see myself drafting him in rookie drafts. I don’t mind taking a chance on a borderline TE1 in the late second-round, especially with his upside. Mostly, I hope he goes somewhere without an established tight end, as he is ready to immediately contribute to an NFL offense as a receiver. In the best-case scenario, he could have a rookie season similar to Pat Freiermuth’s 2021 campaign.

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2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Trey McBride, TE Colorado State