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Davante Adams traded to Las Vegas: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact

We break down the stunning trade of Davante Adams.

Well, that’ll do it.

Free agency had really settled down and the news coming in was starting to get slower and slower. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, came the bombshell this evening indicating the Green Bay Packers had traded wide receiver Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders for a first and second round pick in this year’s NFL draft. As if that wasn’t enough, the Raiders reportedly proceeded to sign Adams to a new five-year contract worth a massive $141.25 million, with an average annual value of $28.5 million, making him the highest paid receiver in the league. It’s a truly shocking resolution to Adams’ reluctance to playing under the franchise tag in Green Bay and has sent fantasy football players into a state of shock. Let’s take a breath and review the values of the players most affected by today’s trade.

Davante Adams, WR LV

Wow.

Adams was clearly not interested in playing under the franchise tag and must have told the Packers he’d rather sit out the season than risk getting injured under the one-year, $19 million pact. With bridges burned, the Packers decided to trade Adams instead of giving him the money he was looking for. It’s a very surprising move after Aaron Rodgers decided to come back as most considered Adams and Rodgers a package deal, regardless of where Rodgers ended up playing next season.

The Raiders now get a player who has recorded a whopping 669 catches for 8,121 yards and 73 touchdowns in his eight years in Green Bay. He’ll also be reunited with his college quarterback in the form of Derek Carr.  The Raiders have been looking for a dominant receiver for years and haven’t had any receiver crack 1,300 receiving yards since Tim Brown did it in the late 90s. To put that into perspective, the 1,553 receiving yards Adams posted last year would be the most by a Raiders player ever by nearly 150 yards. Amari Cooper was the best receiver the Raiders have had as of late, but his best season featured just over 1,100 yards and eight scores, which isn’t close to the level of what Adams has produced.

Adams will turn 30 during the season next year, but has shown no clear signs of slowing down, as indicated by his 123/1,553/11 line last season. In fact, the 1,553 yards were a career high for him, even in his age-29 season. Adams is certainly happy about his new contract, but expecting those kinds of numbers from him next season would be pretty ambitious. He should still post WR1 numbers next year, but his ADP is going to drop as much as a whole round with this change of scenery. Regardless of how you view it, this just has to be a downgrade for Adams. While he’s still an alpha receiver capable of monster games, Josh McDaniels will still likely spread the ball around like he did with the Patriots and Carr is a clear downgrade from A-Rod. He’s still a fantastic player to have, but this is great for his bank account and likely not for sustaining his massive historical fantasy production.

Derek Carr, QB LV

With the AFC just loading up on talent over the past few days, the Raiders had become a bit of an afterthought. Well, that changed this afternoon with this blockbuster. Adams gives Carr a much needed weapon on offense and you have to love what it could do for his value. Carr has never been a bona fide “set it and forget it” weekly option in dynasty leagues, but his ranking of QB21 just has to tick up a bit with this news. While Carr is going to likely remain a QB2 in dynasty leagues, this move could move him more towards the high-end of the QB2 options next season. Simply put, we’re going to see just how good Carr really is this season.

Darren Waller, TE LV

A year after posting a monstrous 107/1,196/9 line in 2020, Waller battled injuries last year and was only able to post a modest 55 catches for 665 yards and two scores last season in 11 games played last season, making him one of fantasy football’s biggest disappointments. With Adams in the fold, Waller will no longer be the primary target for the Raiders and could take a step back in terms of his target share. Realistically, his 2020 was likely an outlier and 2021 likely was as well. It’s likely safe to say Waller should post something in between the two next year if he stays healthy. In short, he should be able to post upper-end TE1 numbers, though he’s unlikely to be in the Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews category with Adams in the mix.

Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake, RBs LV

The addition of Adams shouldn’t affect these two that much. The bigger concern is really how McDaniels plans to employ them, especially when the Raiders added Brandon Bolden in free agency a few days ago. If anything, the dreams of many thinking Josh Jacobs was going to somehow develop into a three down option are pretty much extinguished at the moment.

Hunter Renfrow, WR LV

If there’s a loser in this deal, it’s probably Renfrow, who posted a crazy 103/1,038/9 season and became a weekly staple in PPR lineups last season. Adams and Waller should be the first and second options, leaving much fewer than the unsustainable 128 targets Renfrow had last season. While Adams could conceivably open up the middle of the field for him, it’s hard to see this trade giving those who have him rostered feeling anything other than a tad disappointed.

Bryan Edwards, WR LV

At this point, Edwards is clearly looking like a bit of a bust. After Henry Ruggs was cut last season, Edwards had a prime opportunity to carve a long-term role with the Raiders and his 34 total catches, 571 yards and three touchdowns just didn’t move the needle. With Adams, Waller, and Renfrow commanding the lion’s share of targets, it’s hard to see Edwards emerging without a major injury or two.

Aaron Rodgers, QB GB

When news of the trade broke, many people felt Rodgers was likely blindsided. As it turns out, A-Rod was under the impression Adams would never play for the Packers again and agreed to his contract anyway. It’s a surprising turn of events as most believed Rodgers would have never stayed without his long-time pass catching partner, but that apparently wasn’t the case. Still, this isn’t great news for his dynasty value. Rodgers and Adams have been one of the most explosive duos in history and assuming Rodgers can post the same numbers without Adams in the mix is simply going to be wishful thinking. While Rodgers is going to remain a QB1, it’s hard to see him matching his MVP level without some serious moves in the coming days.

Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Amari Rodgers, WRs GB

At this point, this is what the depth chart looks like for the Packers. As it sits, they’re all big winners. However, it’s just impossible to think Green Bay is going to be content with this trio going into the season. All three of these players are simply “holds” at the moment while we see what the Packers may have up their sleeves next.

Free Agent Wide Receivers

The Packers are now in serious need of pass catchers. While they’ve been criticized in the past for failing to add to their offense, they’ve at least had Adams to lean on as their unquestioned alpha receiver. With Adams now catching passes in Las Vegas, you have to believe Green Bay is at least kicking the tires on players like Julio Jones, Jarvis Landry, Will Fuller, Jamison Crowder, Juju Smith-Schuster, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, AJ Green, Odell Beckham Jr., or others.

Ken Kelly
Davante Adams traded to Las Vegas: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact
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Jeff Melbostad
4 months ago

Wow is right. I’m impressed by the first rate analysis so quickly after the announcement. Well done Ken.

Johnny D
Reply to  Ken Kelly
4 months ago

right on cue! Watson to the Browns. what the?!?

Andy Cook
4 months ago

GB trade for Woods?

Dennis Salisbury
Reply to  Andy Cook
4 months ago

Yeah I think GB has draft capital for Woods now. Plenty of solid FA’s left too. And a deep WR draft class but not sure Rodgers will like them?

timmymac75
4 months ago

Would you trade away Higgins for Ekeler?
Do I put some feelers out there to see what I can get for Adams? I wouldn’t mind Lamb, Chase or Jefferson. Thoughts??
I have Adams, AJ Brown, Pittman, Gabriel Davis, Higgins and Hopkins as my WR PPR league. My RB are JK dobbins, Montgomery, Gus edwards, Javonte Williams

Appreciative Reader
Reply to  timmymac75
4 months ago

timmymac75 – I see you’ve posted this question on several DLF articles. There are specific articles designed to answer reader questions. Until you see one of those pop up, your best bet for soliciting feedback is in one of the DLF forums.
https://forum.dynastyleaguefootball.com/viewforum.php?f=6

Will Finnegan
4 months ago

Ken, as an Aaron Jones owner what should I expect going fwd? More targets? Should I look to pivot regardless?

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