Three Quarterbacks to Trade Away in Dynasty Leagues
It’s Dynasty Trade Month! Throughout March, we will publish articles centered around dynasty trades from our writing staff. In this piece, I’ll break down three quarterbacks I’m currently looking to trade away. I won’t waste any more time on the introduction, so let’s jump straight into the quarterbacks!
Baker Mayfield, CLE
Of all the quarterbacks in the dynasty fantasy football landscape, Mayfield is probably the one I like the least. He’s currently the QB25 in February’s DLF Superflex ADP, which seems a bit high to me. However, it’s his overall ADP of 79.5 where I have a more significant issue. I couldn’t imagine spending a seventh-round startup pick on him, especially compared to players drafted after him like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Drake London, Jerry Jeudy, and Chase Claypool.
Mayfield will play the 2022 season on the fifth-year option of his rookie deal, which is an $18.86 million, fully guaranteed contract. But he has absolutely no guarantees beyond this year, and I think it’s not a lock that he’s the Browns’ franchise quarterback. Honestly, his career track record is a disappointment considering he was the top overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
In 59 career starts, he has just a 29-30 record, a 61.6% completion rate, and 92 touchdowns compared to 56 interceptions. He’s also yet to put together a 4,000-yard passing season, and he’s nothing special from an efficiency standpoint either. His career yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt numbers would’ve ranked 16th among qualifying quarterbacks in 2021.
On top of Mayfield’s mediocre passing numbers, he adds absolutely nothing as a rusher.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
He averages 9.5 rushing yards per game, which doesn’t help the Browns on the field at all. In today’s NFL, most quarterbacks provide at least something with their legs, but Mayfield limits the Browns’ offense with his lack of mobility.
Of course, Mayfield’s low rushing numbers affect his fantasy football upside even more than his real-life ability.
Charts courtesy of DLF Yearly Data App.
Even though Mayfield played a full 16 games in 2019 and 2020, his best fantasy finish remains his QB16 output in 14 games in his 2018 rookie campaign. He also provides little to no fantasy ceiling from week to week.
As you can see, he only has four top-five fantasy performances in his entire career and finished as a QB1 only 28.33% of the time. In contrast, he failed to reach the top-24 in 23.33% of his games, absolutely killing your fantasy team in those contests. He has no ceiling and an unreliable floor, making him one of the worst fantasy quarterbacks in the current pool.
Therefore, I see no reason to make the required startup draft investment in Mayfield, but let’s look at the DLF Trade Analyzer to get a picture of his current trade value.
The analyzer values Mayfield most similarly to the 1.12 rookie pick, which seems too high for him. I couldn’t imagine paying a first-round pick for a quarterback like Mayfield, even in a superflex format.
Matt Ryan, ATL
While Mayfield may represent a more divisive trade-away prospect, I think Ryan is far more apparent. In May, Ryan turns 37 years old, and he’s on the back side of his NFL career.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Despite playing 17 games for the first time in his career, Ryan finished below 4,000 passing yards for the first time since 2010. Oddly enough, he threw for 4,000 or more yards in every one of the ten years Julio Jones played for the Falcons and failed to do so in any of the other four years.
I’m not saying that Jones entirely made Ryan into a star quarterback, but Ryan’s splits with and without Jones are absolutely awful.
Chart courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.
I even chose to be kind to Ryan by excluding the first three years of his career before Jones entered the league. But since Jones started playing in 2011, Ryan goes from a mid-QB1 with Jones to a mid-QB2 without him. I see absolutely no reason to expect Ryan to improve in 2022, especially with Calvin Ridley’s playing status up in the air.
Ryan currently holds a $40 million dead cap hit that makes it impossible for the Falcons to move on from him this year, but they would save $28 million to release him before the 2023 season. I would not even be the least bit surprised if the Falcons selected a quarterback with the eighth overall pick and let him sit for most of the 2022 season before transitioning to the rookie in 2023. None of the quarterbacks in this relatively weak 2022 class are genuinely ready to start week one. I don’t predict that the Falcons will choose to take a quarterback there, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
Of course, if they did, Ryan would almost instantly lose most of his remaining dynasty value. Right now, he currently holds value equal to the 2.05 rookie pick according to the DLF Trade Analyzer.
While that’s low, I think it will only get worse as time passes. You can’t start Ryan in your lineup, and he has little to no resale value. I would be fine taking the 2.05 or a 2023 second-round pick in return for Ryan and just moving on.
I also have zero interest in selecting Ryan at his QB31 and 103.75 overall value in February’s DLF superflex ADP. I’d instead pick other quarterbacks like Jimmy Garoppolo or Jared Goff, who are currently going later. That’s not even mentioning other players such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Williams, Jameson Williams, Chris Olave, and Brandin Cooks, just to name a few.
Aaron Rodgers, GB
Rodgers’ situation may be entirely resolved by the time you read this article. But either way, I have zero understanding of his current superflex ADP of QB13 and 25.25 overall. Yes, he’s coming off two straight MVP awards, but he’s already 38 years old. I know that Tom Brady played until his age-44 season, and I bet that’s why Rodgers retains such a high dynasty ADP.
However, not every superstar quarterback has an end-of-career trajectory like Brady.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Peyton Manning had two ridiculous seasons at age 36 and 37, including an MVP award. Even in his age-38 season, he still made the Pro Bowl, threw for 4,727 yards, and had 39 touchdowns versus 15 interceptions. But suddenly, at age 39, he muddled through a dismal 2015 season and retired immediately after.
Rodgers also wasn’t exactly a fantasy game-breaker in 2021. He did win his second straight MVP award, but he finished tied for eighth in fantasy PPG with Dak Prescott. Throughout Rodgers’ career, he often added a bit of rushing upside, although he bottomed out at 101 rushing yards in 2021. Despite that career-low yardage mark, he still scored three rushing touchdowns.
I doubt that Rodgers gains more rushing upside moving forward, and he also relied on high touchdown totals rather than passing yardage in 2020 and 2021. He managed to throw 48 and 37 touchdowns in those two seasons, good for a 9 and 7.1% touchdown rate. Considering that he hadn’t hit a 7.1% touchdown rate since 2012 before the last two years, there’s no guarantee he continues this high-end touchdown efficiency in 2022 and beyond.
Unfortunately, there aren’t many recent trades involving Rodgers in the DLF Trade Finder. But given his ADP, I could easily swap Rodgers for younger quarterbacks like Mac Jones or Tua Tagovailoa and get a piece on top. In the best-case scenario, I’d love to acquire Jones or Tagovailoa and a 2023 first-rounder for Rodgers, although I’d undoubtedly take less. Even if Rodgers continues to excel, he won’t maintain his current dynasty value as he hits 39 and 40. And if he even shows the slightest sign of real-life or fantasy decline, he’ll lose value rapidly.
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