IDP Off-Season Outlook: AFC East

As we near the start of the new league year and the start of free agency on March 16, the DLF IDP team is going around the league to take a look at each team’s rosters, moves and needs heading into the 2022 season. It is our hope that this exercise will provide you with valuable information for off-season moves and startup drafts.

Any listed pressures are courtesy Pro Football Focus. Blitz totals are from Pro Football Reference. Salaries and cap references are gleaned from OverTheCap.com.

Buffalo Bills

Salary Cap Situation

Buffalo is currently $6.5 million over the cap so the front office has some work to do, but this is a manageable situation with the core of a Super Bowl contending roster already in place. There’s flexibility with Josh Allen‘s contract, and at least one easy cut on the defensive side of the ball (linebacker A.J. Klein, whose release will save almost $5.2 million against the cap).

Coaching Staff Continuity

The biggest changes are on the offensive side of the ball. Sean McDermott, a successful defensive coordinator in Carolina and Philadelphia, returns for his sixth season as Buffalo’s head man. Leslie Frazier has served as McDermott’s defensive coordinator during his full tenure with the Bills. Bobby Babich was moved to linebackers coach following the retirement of his father, and Jim Salgado was promoted to safeties coach, the role previously held by Babich.

Edge

Buffalo invested its three highest draft picks in 2020 and 2021 at edge, and this is currently a young and unproven position room, with rising sophomores Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham joined by 2020 second-rounder A.J. Epenesa. Jerry Hughes (approaching 34 years old), Mario Addison (approaching 35), Efe Obada (comparatively young at 30) are all free agents.

Color me stunned if the Bills enter training camp with the returning youngsters atop the depth chart. I fully expect Buffalo to add a couple of veterans on one-year deals, and for at least one of those veterans to see a solid percentage of snaps.

Interior Defensive Line

Ed Oliver hasn’t lived up to his top-ten draft status, but he’s still young (24) and has three seasons of experience under his belt. In some games he looks invincible, and in others, he turns invisible. But I think Buffalo makes an easy decision to exercise its fifth-year option on him this off-season, keeping him under team control through 2023. Star Lotulelei has not aged well, but his contract is structured so that he’s not a cap-cut candidate until after this season. He’ll return as a rotational piece.

Harrison Phillips really came on over the second half of the season to set himself up nicely for free agency. I’m sure Buffalo would like to bring him back, but his market price may be surprising. If Phillips finds greener pastures in free agency, look for Buffalo to spend a high draft pick on a big ugly. Former Panthers’ first-round draft bust Vernon Butler is also a free agent, as is journeyman Justin Zimmer, who tore an ACL halfway through the season.

Off-Ball Linebacker

At the moment this position looks like an interesting storyline for next off-season. The disappointing Tremaine Edmunds – still somehow not quite 24! – is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Matt Milano, who is under contract through 2024, has cap casualty-looking numbers after 2022, and especially after 2023. The Bills already re-signed Tyrel Dodson to serve as a backup. The aforementioned Klein is likely getting cut. In a deep off-ball linebacker class, look for Buffalo to spend a late day two or early day three pick on a potential down-the-road starter.

Safety

Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde form what is likely the best safety duo in the NFL, but both will play as 31-year-olds in 2022. How much longer can they maintain their high level of play? Poyer has one year remaining on his contract. Jaquan Johnson, who is entering his fourth season with the Bills, and rising sophomore Damar Hamlin will wage war in the battle for backup pecking order.

Dynasty Targets, Fades and Holds

I placed Rousseau atop my rookie edge rankings due to skillset but I see him as more or less a hold at his dynasty value. Unless Buffalo decides to transition from a strong rotation – and given the continuity on the coaching staff you’d expect it to continue – Rousseau is probably topping out at a 67 percent snap share. In an ideal world, that snap share is at 75 percent or higher. For that same reason, Basham and Epenesa look like roster cloggers in all but deep formats. In defensive tackle-premium formats, I’m targeting Oliver and looking for season-long DT2 production with week-winning upside in 2022. The luster has worn off of his high draft capital, and he should be available at a steep discount.

At linebacker: Is this the year Edmunds finally puts it all together and lives up to his first-round draft capital? Will Milano’s fantasy production resemble his real-football value? I’d hold Edmunds if you still believe, or just need solid LB3, but lots of people still like his upside so I wouldn’t be afraid to move him for offense or a better IDP. I don’t imagine there’s a big trade market for Milano so he probably falls into the hold category. Dodson is interesting in really deep leagues in case of an injury to Edmunds.

Poyer is once again a nice add for your contending teams. Due to his age, he should be a pretty easy pickup if he’s still for some reason rostered by a middling or rebuilding franchise. If anyone will give you anything of remote value for Hyde, take it. He is for the most part a deep safety with no dynasty value, but did produce as a low-end S2 on the season thanks to five interceptions (he totaled four from 2018-20) and a sack. He blitzed 34 times – a number that blew away his recent blitz numbers (40 total from 2018-20). It was an outlier season from a production standpoint.

Miami Dolphins

Salary Cap Situation

Miami is more than $63 million under the base cap of $208.2 million – so plenty of funds to fix what ails ’em. And there’s more to be had, as you’ll read below.

Coaching Staff Continuity

Brian Flores is not one for productive struggle. His departure creates an interesting situation in Miami, since new head man Mike McDaniel decided to keep Josh Boyer at defensive coordinator. Will we see more staid defensive formations? Will the Dolphins still employ a heavy blitz scheme?

Edge

Jaelan Phillips had a decent rookie season and looks like a good building block. Andrew Van Ginkel, who is entering the final year of rookie deal, isn’t a bad rotational option on the opposite side. Emmanuel Ogbah, the team leader in pressures with 61, is a free agent though, and if he leaves Miami will need another strong option.

Interior Defensive Line

Christian Wilkins had a breakout season in his third year with four-and-a-half sacks, and I expect that the Dolphins will exercise their fifth-year option on him to keep him under control for two more seasons. The versatile Zach Sieler is a nice pass rush option inside and outside the tackle. Rising third-year nose Raekwon Davis provides depth, while Adam Butler has the look of a cap casualty ($4.15 million savings, $0 dead money if cut). Little-used John Jenkins is a free agent.

Off-Ball Linebacker

Jerome Baker is paid handsomely and looks safe for another couple of seasons. He could lose value if this scheme changes significantly and he sees less time as an outside pass rusher. Everyone else – Elandon Roberts, Duke Riley, Sam Eguavoen, Brennan Scarlett, and the immortal Vince Biegel – is a free agent.

Safety

Jevon Holland was arguably 2021’s top rookie safety, and he should be fine for years to come in a deep coverage role. And though he didn’t do it much as a rookie, he has the athleticism and mirror skills to line up over the slot too. Brandon Jones returns after a productive sophomore campaign as a box safety. Expect at least one – or maybe two – noteworthy off-season additions.

Two other rostered safeties look like cap casualties. Nickel defender Eric Rowe‘s release would free up $4.55 million savings while only saddling the cap with half a million in dead money. Clayton Fejedelem is a straight-up $2.78 million savings cut. I’m not even a Dolphins fan and I’ll be upset if they don’t send those two packing for easy cap space. Free safety Jason McCourty, who suffered a season-ending foot injury a third of the way into the season, is headed into free agency as a soon-to-be 35-year-old.

Dynasty Targets, Fades and Holds

I feel like a sourpuss but I’m holding or fading everything. I like Phillips, but his value is too high for me to target. There’s another deep edge group on the way and I’ll gamble on second- and third-round rookie draft edges working out rather than pay a premium for Phillips. Likewise, Wilkins is too costly in defensive tackle-premium formats coming off a career year. Baker’s not bad but he’s also no league winner – he’s LB3 territory for me. Fade these safeties hard: Both Jones (69) and Holland (51) saw a massive number of blitz opportunities. Sans Flores, we shouldn’t count on it again. And if the ‘Phins play more split safety coverages on the back end, Jones is probably getting replaced.

New England Patriots

Salary Cap Situation

Count on some restructures for last off-season’s big-ticket free-agent class. That will loosen things up for New England, which at the time of this writing sits $9.3 million under the cap.

Coaching Staff Continuity

For some reason, New England keeps running it back with this Bill Belichick guy. Really, what has he done that’s so special in this decade?

Edge

New England invested heavily in Matt Judon last off-season, and it paid off. Otherwise, this is a deep and fairly talented group with a mix of veterans and youth. Kyle Van Noy, who rejoined New England after getting cut by Miami during the season, is under contract for one more year, as is pass rush specialist Chase Winovich. Versatile inside-outside lineman Deatrich Wise is locked up long-term. Talented 2020 second-rounder Josh Uche enters a pivotal off-season. Ronnie Perkins, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and edge rusher/off-ball linebacker Anfernee Jennings, who didn’t play a snap as a sophomore, round out the depth chart.

Interior Defensive Line

Christian Barmore was a hit as a rookie in a shallow interior class. The venerable Lawrence Guy returns along with veterans Davon Godchaux and Henry Anderson, both of whom are in the final year of their deals. Carl Davis is a free agent.

Off-Ball Linebacker

Change is afoot here, with Dont’a Hightower, Ja’Whaun Bentley, and Jamie Collins all entering free agency. Hightower has been reduced to a blitzer who needs a good scheme to be effective. Bentley is a limited run-down thumper. Collins was a shell of what he once was. Seats in the off-ball linebacker room are filled by the likes of Jahlani Tavai, Raekwon McMillan, Harvey Langi and Cameron McGrone. Look for Belichick to go big here with an early draft pick.

Safety

Is this the end of the line for Devin McCourty? The Patriot lifer is a free agent, and coming up on 35 years young. Fantasy-relevant box safeties Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips are both set here for a few years. A deep safety – and depth – are atop the off-season to-do list.

Dynasty Targets, Fades and Holds

Judon is a hold for contenders in true position formats. Everywhere else you can fade him coming off a career season. He was somewhat invisible in Baltimore for a while so it’s hard to believe he’ll turn 30 during the preseason. It will be my downfall but I’m a sucker for Uche’s upside, and he’s a target of mine in true position leagues – not for now but for 2023 and later. Follow my lead if you must but consider yourself warned that this may be a case of blind leading the blind. Barmore was gold as a rookie pass rusher, so he’ll be hard to land in defensive tackle-premium leagues, but if the price is reasonable I’ll try to work a deal for him in those formats.

Kyle Dugger, how do I love thee? Let me count the ways – or rather, let me count the leagues that I have him in. IDP nation won’t loosen its grip on any Dugger shares, so I’ll wish you good luck if you don’t already have him rostered. Phillips is a nice, reasonably priced (read: cheap) alternative, and he’s somewhere between a low-end S1 (2020) and a low-end S3 (2021). Yes, he’s turning 30 in March, but he’s more often than not playing near the line of scrimmage. That’s a starting lineup box I’m fine checking on a weekly basis.

New York Jets

Salary Cap Situation

Gang Green is in great shape in this category, sitting almost $49 million under the NFL base cap number of $208.2 million. The front office can create some more space fairly easily with some cuts and restructures. Speaking of the front office, I really like how Joe Douglas has structured a lot of New York’s top contracts with guarantees in the first two years. Afterward, there are easy outs with little cap impact, or the opportunity to restructure and spread base salaries by converting them to signing bonuses.

Coaching Staff Continuity

It was not a great start for first-year head coach Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, but they didn’t get fired. If the defense doesn’t shape up Ulbrich will be looking for work as a position coach next off-season. Saleh reportedly tried hard not to step on Ulbrich’s toes in 2021, so a more hands-on approach from the boss seems likely if strides forward are not made.

Edge

This Steelers fan was pretty happy to see Carl Lawson leave the AFC North (a lot of good it did me), and then I was pretty sad to see King Carl tear an Achilles before the season even started. Achilles tear recoveries have come a long way recently, and I’m hoping Lawson has the type of blowup season I thought he’d have in 2021. If not, he’s probably going to be a cap casualty next off-season. John Franklin-Myers played a lot more outside the tackle under Saleh than he did in 2020, and he continued to look good as a pass rusher. The Jets locked him up long-term early last season.

Third-year edge Bryce Huff provides a decent rotational passing down work, but he missed seven games with a back injury. Depth is otherwise bleak, with Jabari Zuniga, exclusive rights free agent Tim Ward and Cowboys castoff Bradlee Anae under contract. Backup Kyle Phillips is a restricted free agent. Assuming Lawson has adequately recovered, this position isn’t in dire straits. They’ll certainly add something of quality or high draft pedigree to the mix, though.

Interior Defensive Line

New York will pick up the fifth-year option on Quinnen Williams this off-season to keep him under team control through 2023. He has by no means been a bust, but he also hasn’t lived up to his billing as a future All-Pro. After spending last off-season dealing with a broken foot, there’s still reason to be optimistic with Williams’ upside. Sheldon Rankins is in the final year of a two-year deal, and is a cut candidate as the Jets could save more than $5.4 million against the cap with his release. Rankins is a passing-down interior rusher only; a release would not be surprising given his issues against the run. Nose Foley Fatukasi and backup Nathan Shepherd are both free agents.

Adding a competent run defender should be an off-season priority. The good news is the draft is deep with nose tackles – should New York trade down from the tenth pick, Georgia’s Jordan Davis makes a lot of sense (of course he makes a lot of sense for many teams).

Off-Ball Linebacker

After missing almost all of his first two seasons in New York, C.J. Mosley assumed leadership of the defense and racked up a career-high 168 tackles – fourth-most in the league – partially thanks to a leaky line. The Jets need him, but barring a restructure his contract lines up for a release after this season. Quincy Williams, the Jaguars’ surprise 2019 third-round pick, garnered much fantasy love as a waiver wire hero. He’s under contract for 2022. And there are plenty of other middling or unproven options behind those two: Del’Shawn Phillips, Blake Cashman, former Raiders sleeper Javin White, and college box safety converts Jamien Sherwood and Hamsah Nasirildeen. Jarrad Davis, a great prospect who never panned out, is a free agent.

The numbers were good for Mosley and Williams, but the play was suspect. I could totally see the Jets springing for one of the draft’s better stack ‘backers with one of their early second-round picks.

Safety

We’re near the end of this article and you may just want to avert your eyes and go ahead and close the tab. The entire Jets defensive backfield is nasty-looking other than corner Bryce Hall. The safety situation reminds me of walking into a grocery store and seeing ten registers but only one with a lonely-looking teenager standing behind it. Marcus Maye, Lamarcus Joyner (remember him?) and Will Parks are all free agents. Even somewhat relevant late-season waiver add Elijah Riley is an exclusive rights free agent.

Under contract we’re left with fantasy tease Ashtyn Davis and someone named Jovante Moffatt, who is probably a bad training camp day away from being that lonely grocery store attendee. Two starting safeties are atop the off-season shopping list.

Dynasty Targets, Fades and Holds

This was a bad defense but I can’t help but advocate for a few targets. Even coming off a serious injury, Lawson has Edge2 upside, and during rookie drafts I’ll be paying attention to the Lawson owner to see if he or she is looking for additional picks somewhere in the mid- to late-third round. Franklin-Myers is a quality fantasy depth piece; you can get him as a throw-in on most any deal involving offensive players. Quinnen Williams is also worth checking in on in any league that requires defensive tackle starters. Price checks are typically a non-starter in defensive tackle-premium formats but there’s no penalty for asking.

Mosley is a hold for playoff contenders – you’re just not going to get a lot in return given his age (will turn 30 in June) and you might as well ride it out. Rebuilders obviously need to sell. If you can move Quincy Williams to a linebacker-needy team, try to extract something (anything) you like better. I don’t think he has staying power. Sherwood quietly showed some promise in early season work before rupturing an Achilles tendon in week seven. Pick him up off the scrap heap or offer a late-round rookie pick if you want to take a flier on him. I am all about shopping Ashtyn Davis right now before the Jets hit safety hard in free agency.

IDP Off-Season Outlook: AFC East