Integrated IDP Dynasty Startup Mock Draft

ADP for individual defensive players is notoriously hard to source. League settings are so different that it tends to make draft data more misleading than useful.

Regardless of this, we’re trying to press on with providing useful information and we’re planning on running regular mocks to observe and share general trends with you.

This draft was completed in February and had a few settings to note:

• We drafted 50 rounds and 600 players total.
• We assumed True Position. All edge players were assigned as DE. All interior linemen as DT.
• Scoring was set using the Hyperbole Hyperbowl league. Details can be found here.
• This league was bestball, which rewards building a deeper roster with boom/bust players more valuable.
• It was a superflex league to try and assign more value to QBs.
• Missed picks (always a hazard in mock drafts around the world) were set to skip picks to avoid ‘standard’ ADP polluting the results.
• This league was set to start three each of all five IDP positions each week. So, that’s 15 total IDPs compared to 11 offensive players and a kicker.
• Drafters were asked to concentrate on player value rather than roster building.
• No 2022 rookies or picks were included.

Total selections

The total players selected by position were as follows.

General positional trends

This chart shows the proportion of picks by each round by position. When viewed like this, some clear trends emerge.

As you’d expect in a superflex league, quarterback dominated early then tailed off relatively fast as the viable/valuable QBs were chosen.

Running backs and wide receivers were also very prevalent in early rounds, without quite such a steep drop-off. In fact, they were taken steadily throughout the whole draft.

No tight ends were selected until the fourth round, then we saw a steady drip of them for the next 35 rounds.

Similar patterns existed for linebacker, safety and cornerback. Noone took them for a while, but once the dams were broken, they were steadily taken for the rest of the draft.

Kickers were available and part of the league, but none were selected until the 29th round.

Positional drop-off

This chart shows a line for each position that indicates how early each positions were selected, and what that gradient looked like.

So, if we use QB as an example, you can see that they were selected consistently early, with 17 of them going in the first 50 picks. Then after the 31st QB was selected at pick 238, there was a big gap with the 32nd QB (Drew Lock) not taken until pick 361. That was ten full rounds without any of them going – clearly this is a significant tier cut-off.

You can apply the same process to spot where the various tiers exist by position. A long, flat curve without big gaps shows a position without obvious tier gaps. Truncated, step-like lines show obvious points where perceived value falls off sharply.

Quarterback

As above, the obvious tier is after QB31. We have a good idea of who starting and backup QBs are, so it’s either worth investing in a player, or it’s not.

But there are levels within this. After the 14th QB selected was off the board (Justin Fields), there was a gap of ten picks before someone picked Jalen Hurts. After QB23 (Baker Mayfield) was selected, there was a gap of 18 picks before Jimmy Garoppolo was selected.

Running back

Overall, RB is quite a smooth curve. They are picked pretty steadily all through the draft. Note that 70 different backs were selected overall – clearly far more than will actually be useful. ADP always reflects the potential value of RBs over actual value – because we’re not good at separating the two.

The RB1 (Jonathan Taylor) was selected a full 12 picks ahead of the next back (Antonio Gibson). From then on, a back came off the board every few picks until a ten-pick gap after the RB11 (Joe Mixon) and the RB12 (Dalvin Cook). We saw another gap between the RB15 (Cam Akers) and the RB16 (Ezekiel Elliott).

But the real cutoff point did not arrive until after the RB44 (Chuba Hubbard) was off the board. Up until him, 44 backs were taken in 234 picks – about one every five picks. After that point just 26 backs were selected in the remaining 366 picks – about one every 14 picks.

Wide receiver

Receiver was the ‘flattest’ position in this draft. It was the position most consistently selected, and there were the smallest tier drops. This implies that we dynasty players see continuous value throughout the whole draft. Given 102 different receivers were selected (over one in six picks), this is incredible.

Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, and Deebo Samuel all went in the top 25 picks, but there were good players available late. Mike Evans went at 68. DeAndre Hopkins at 76. Amari Cooper at 104. Adam Thielen at 153. Kenny Golladay at 191.

This is not to say that all those guys will work out. But given the prevalence of spread offensive philosophy in the modern NFL, the gap is shrinking between receivers. This is being reflected in drafts.

Tight end

There are very clear breaks in the TE line. Kyle Pitts (37) was taken half a round before any of his peers. Then Mark Andrews (44), George Kittle (45) went nine picks before Travis Kelce (54) who went 11 picks before Darren Waller (65). Then no other TE was selected until Dallas Goedert at the 86th pick. We then saw another seven TEs selected in the next 100 picks, before it all bunched up after the first 13 were off the board.

TE is fairly predictable and consistent (compared to other positions) so people are willing to invest in what they see as safe picks, and then everyone takes shots on guys they think are interesting later on.

Kicker

12 kickers were selected, but only seven teams picked one as some selected two, which tells you a lot about value.

The Bengals’ Evan McPherson (337) was the top kicker taken after his playoff heroics. He was picked 63 picks before Justin Tucker at 400. Younghoe Koo (403) went about the same time, and then we saw another gap of 57 spots before Matt Gay of the Rams came off the board.

Considering how unpredictable the position is, these heavy investments over alternative options seem risky to say the least.

Defensive interior

The single biggest tier-break in this draft was between Aaron Donald (ninth overall) and Quinnen Williams (97th overall). An eight-round gap before the number two option is extreme but does reflect Donald’s unique position.

After Williams came off the board, we saw another five players selected in 30 picks. This gives us a very strong tier two of players such as Jeffery Simmons, DeForest Buckner, Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins.

Cameron Heyward (168) was clearly downvalued due to his age, and then after that, it all starts to get much more homogenous. People know that it’s relatively rare to find a breakout talent at this position. You either invest in premium or accept the disadvantage.

Edge

Amazingly we saw three edge players selected in the first five picks (Myles Garrett, Nick Bosa and TJ Watt). This seems extreme, but the urge to secure people’s favorite pass-rusher is very strong.

After that there was a 25-pick gap until Chase Young was selected at 30 then another 27-pick gap before Brian Burns came off the board at 57. After that we saw Maxx Crosby, Danielle Hunter, Joey Bosa and Harold Landry all selected fairly quickly.

We then saw another seven edges selected in 26 picks before a gap of 26 picks and this was the overall shape. Short, sharp tiers punctuated by gaps of two or three rounds, before another tier of players flying off the board.

This suggests a high degree of confidence in a high-variance position especially given the bestball setting which made it possible to build deep rosters at the position.

Linebacker

LB was probably second only to WR in ‘flatness’ of selections. There were some tiers, but they were relatively small. It’s also worth noting that 80 LBs were drafted. In today’s NFL, we see only around 30 full-time LBs at any given time. This either means that people were confident in bestball creating value among LBs with restricted volume, or they were overrating the position’s long tail.

As expected, Micah Parsons was the first LB off the board at 66. Then we saw Darius Leonard go 26 spots later (over two clear rounds!), with Roquan Smith, Foyesade Oluokun, Devin White, Fred Warner and Eric Kendricks all flying off in quick succession.

From then on, we mostly saw runs of 10-15 LBs separated by gaps of 12-25 picks between them. There was very much not the gap you’d expect to see after the clear supply ran out. Players with significant questions marks such as Ernest Jones (LB24 at 212), Partick Queen (LB27 at 226), and Devin Bush (LB29 at 236) were in among more established options.

Cornerback

Cornerback is the least predictable, and least reliable position in fantasy football. With the least long-term value due to wild year-on-year fluctuation. So, it was surprising to say the least that there was more clarity to value tiers than some other positions.

We can put this down to name recognition for the most part. Oftentimes people who do not know the position will clutch at names they recognize to avoid being forced to picking blind and potentially looking silly.

Kenny Moore was unsurprisingly the first name selected at 232 (in the 20th round). To put this into context, he was taken around the same spot as Tyler Higbee, Darrell Henderson, Julian Okwara and Cole Kmet.

We then saw one or two corners selected in most rounds through to the end of the draft. AJ Terrell was the third one selected (perhaps the drafter thought that age is a benefit?) with big names like Marlon Humphrey, Marshon Lattimore, and Jalen Ramsey taken early.

Interestingly Trevon Diggs was just the fifth corner selected. Do not be surprised if he goes as one of the first two in most drafts.

Safety

Safety is (along with corner) the other least predictable position in fantasy. The supply just outstrips demand by so much that the list of start-worthy players fluctuates hugely.

We normally see a shortlist of safeties with perceived elite value every off-season. And here we saw Derwin James (pick 109) selected 20 picks before Budda Baker (129), with Jeremy Chinn (136) and Vonn Bell (152) close behind.

There were then just five safeties selected in the next 70 picks. So, James (tenth round) was taken a full 11 rounds ahead of the S13 (Jordan Poyer). Last year’s top safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (293) went 15 rounds after James. Adrian Amos (312) went 16 rounds later. And Tyrann Mathieu (335) went 18 rounds later.

Even in a bestball league starting three safeties each and every week, there is a plentiful supply of players who play most if not all snaps every week. You can afford to wait and wait for value.

Conclusions

This was just one draft. With just one set of rules and settings. It’s early in the off-season, so a lack of recent ADP made it a tough draft to gauge. But even so, we can start to see tendencies and assumptions in play. Those will help in startups and existing leagues.

People think linebacker is deeper than it actually is assuming True Position settings and the rumor is still that this will be adopted on MFL this off-season.

It is still possible to grab insane value late in drafts at some positions. WR, S, and perhaps RB seem obvious.

People still panic and routinely overinvest into the biggest names at each position. Consistently we see the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Donald, Derwin James, Micah Parsons and Kenny Moore taken full rounds ahead of the second player drafted at those positions. That’s just not reflective of how seasonal variance works in fantasy football.

Hopefully this was useful for you. Good luck in real drafts!

Integrated IDP Dynasty Startup Mock Draft