2022 Combine Risers & Fallers
The 2022 NFL Combine arrived with little fanfare and ended with a healthy amount of buzz.
Identifying rising and falling players at any given time can be a subjective and difficult exercise. As always, I try to steer clear of popular opinion and fear of backlash and, instead, focus on not only my own objective analysis but also insight from trusted sources around the league. It’s not always easy to remove bias, but it’s so essential so as not to create our own reality, as I like to say.
Prior to this year’s underwear Olympics, dynasty coaches were down on the incoming rookie class. Quarterbacks and tight ends are far from inspiring or intriguing, the running back group was seen as thin beyond the top two names and while the receivers had created some excitement, the position was also seen as generally weak. Following the Combine, some measure of enthusiasm and intrigue has returned.
I would be lying if I said I, also, wasn’t down on the 2022 class. But I’m also a realist. Fully understanding that, despite the perceived weakness when compared to recent draft classes, this class is certain to have difference-making players who will become some of tomorrow’s superstars.
My thoughts haven’t changed related to tight end and quarterbacks but part of that is based upon my normal operating M.O. of tight ends – I nearly always fade the position. As far as the quarterbacks, I’m still much lower on the position than previous years but as we’re speaking about a position which normally doesn’t leave the board until the middle of the second-round outside of the superflex format, I’m not overly concerned.
Let’s turn our attention to those players who turned in notable performances during the 2022 NFL Combine.
Rising
Malik Willis, QB Liberty
The quarterback class just isn’t what it has been in recent years. Willis was already atop my rankings at the position but I was happy to hear that he was impressing with his football-IQ in interviews and the trending video of the young quarterback helping out an individual sitting on a street corner only adds character value. In throwing drills, it was easy to see why many are high on his upside. The ball leaps from his hand and his motion is effortless. Mix in mobility, 27 touchdowns in the past two years, and it’s clear why his upside is well beyond others. I heard multiple times that Willis is seen as being two years away and I support this belief. He’s raw, decision making is a big question mark but there’s no questioning his starting foundation. I think he’ll be the top quarterback off the board in dynasty rookie drafts, likely in the middle of the second round.
Breece Hall, RB Iowa State
Entering the Combine, Breece Hall saw equal billing as the top name at the position, sharing the honor with Texas A&M’s Isaiah Spiller. But as activities came to a close, Hall assumed control of the running back position and should now be clearly considered the top prospect. He caught my eye immediately with a ridiculous 40″ vertical, impressive for his 5’11″/217 lbs. frame. But what he did next cemented his place on my positional ranking – running a 4.39 40-yard-dash. When surveying his all-around skillset and answering any lingering speed questions, Hall has separated himself from both Spiller and Kenneth Walker. He sits clearly atop my rookie rankings following his performance.
Pierre Strong Jr., RB South Dakota State
Strong had already caught my eye with three years of impressive collegiate production including enough work as a receiver to garner three-down consideration. The knock on all South Dakota State players will be level of competition and that certainly is at play with Strong. In his red-shirt senior season, he produced nearly 1,700 yards as a rusher, scoring 18 touchdowns while hauling in 22 receptions. His 7.0 ypc. average is impressive at any level and my only two remaining reservations were his official size and long speed. I was looking for at least 205 lbs. and sub-4.50 40-time. Strong measured in at 5’11″/207 lbs. which checked that box but his 4.37 40 was a shocker. Make no mistake, he put himself on the map at the Combine and it’s players like him which will cause general value-decline at the position. While higher profile names go off the board, savvy NFL teams are realizing less-followed players like Pierre Strong offer similar upside but requiring far less capital. I think Strong could sneak into the second round of the NFL Draft now but I won’t be surprised to see him fall into the third as the position continues to be faded. In dynasty drafts, Pierre Strong is going to be a fine late-first selection as long as he falls to a favorable situation.
Jerome Ford, RB Cincinnati
A bit of a one-year wonder, the Junior tailback produced 1,300 yards and 19 touchdowns in his final year at Cincinnati and measured in at 5’10 1/2″/210 lbs., nearly ideal for a back of his skillset. Like Strong above, Ford displays enough receiving ability to have three-down potential at the next level and, while he doesn’t possess the physical strength or lateral agility of a back like Breece Hall, Ford’s 4.46 40 was a pleasant surprise and answered my speed questions. I was looking for a time south of 4.50 for him to rise on my board. Ford, like many other backs in this draft, makes it possible for back-needy teams to forego a higher selection on a marquee name. In the end, I think he’ll be off the board in the third round of the NFL Draft and will provide early-second round intrigue in dynasty rookie drafts depending on drafted situation.
James Cook, RB Georgia
Cook and backfield mate Zamir White had very productive careers at Georgia but both present differently as NFL prospects. While I acknowledged Cook’s upside, I felt he was too small for a notable role in the NFL, unlike brother Dalvin Cook. But when Cook measured in at 5’11″/199 lbs., my eyebrows were raised. Cook weighed-in a full 10 lbs. less than his brother but also ran an official 4.42 40, faster than Dalvin’s 4.49. With more impressive vertical and broad jumps, Cook now profiles closer to a lighter Alvin Kamara. I’m confident Cook will be able to add weight at the next level though his frame does appear to be close to maxing out. Should he be able to add 8-10 lbs., I think he has significant upside. His 113 carries in 2021 were nearly equal to all three previous years combined, meaning there should be significant tread remaining on his tires. I see James Cooks’ upside limited early in his career as he attempts to establish a role but his inherent dynamic ability will eventually pay dividends
Chris Olave, WR Ohio State
Olave produced 32 touchdowns over his last three seasons as a Buckeye and is a route technician with the ability to get over the top of defenses, though hasn’t been considered a speedster. In fact, the only question I had was about Olave’s long speed. He answered that question with an impressive 4.39 40. He won’t overtake fellow Buckeye Garrett Wilson in the rankings but Olave is now a fringe first-round NFL Draft candidate and will join other successful Ohio State receiving prospects in the NFL.
Calvin Austin, WR Memphis
By all accounts, Calvin Austin was this year’s workout warrior though at 5’8″/170 lbs., there are plenty of questions about his ability to produce at the next level. He produced 2,200 yards and 19 touchdowns in his final two years at Memphis and his 4.32 40 and 39″ vertical displayed speed and explosion that can’t be ignored. He’s looking to be the 2022 version of 2021’s Rondale Moore and with the slot specialists on the rise in the NFL, the trend plays well into Calvin Austin’s prospects.
George Pickens, WR Georgia
Carrying an injury flag, Pickens had a lot to prove at the Combine and made good on his potential by running an impressive 4.47 40 at 6’3″/195 lbs. Pickens has some A.J. Green elements in his game but turned in a better Combine performance, though does possess smaller (8.75″) hands to that of Green (9″). But with greater height and length, there’s a lot to like about Pickens as long as he can stay off the trainer’s table. Now fully recovered from a torn ACL during spring practices, he was able to return to the filed late in the season. There’s no reason to believe he’s at greater risk for injury in the future. Without the ACL, he would have been in the mix for top receiver at the position but the injury will tamp down his ranking, a potential boon for dynasty coaches holding late-first or early-second round draft capital. Pickens continues to percolate higher.
Falling
Surprisingly, I don’t see many falling players and there were no disastrous performances from the skill position players. But, nonetheless, we did see a few underwhelming drills and results to highlight.
Isaiah Spiller, RB Texas A&M
Reportedly dealing with a strained abductor muscle, Isaiah Spiller lost ground to Breece Hall and his fine Combine performance. Strangely enough, even with the abductor issue, Spiller decided to perform his vertical (30″) and broad jump (114″), neither being impressive. Leading up to the Combine, Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker had been gaining ground and now has seemingly begun to overtake Spiller, leveraging his impressive workout into greater momentum in rankings. Spiller eclipsed 1,000 yards over his past two seasons at A&M, scoring 15 touchdowns and showing three down ability though only averaging 5.5 ypc. over his three-year career. Drafted situation is going to be key with this year’s running backs and, specifically for Isaiah Spiller, perhaps even more so. We’ll need to wait for A&M’s Pro Day where Spiller is scheduled to run.
Kyren Williams, RB Notre Dame
Williams measured in at a somewhat disappointing 5’9″/194 lbs. though he wasn’t expected to tip the scales above 200 lbs. But at that size, the Notre Dame back was going to need to display speed and explosion – he did neither. Running a disappointing 4.65 and displaying sub-par explosion with a 32″ vertical and 116″ broad jump just won’t get it done for the player who shows far better on game film. Perhaps that fact will halt any further decline in Williams’ ranking but that remains to be seen. Williams did eclipse 1,000 yards in his final year but his paltry 4.9 ypc. average simply isn’t going to elicit enough intrigue to elevate his draft stock.
Treylon Burks, WR Arkansas
Let me start by saying I fully realize my review here isn’t going to be popular. Burks is clearly 2022’s Twitter darling and, as such, will receive a lot of grace from the fantasy community. As an analyst who always seeks to look through subjective analysis and bias, there’s little way Burks’ Combine performance could send his stock rising and, in fact, it should do quite the opposite. But, this in no way suggests the large receiver isn’t an intriguing prospect but, instead, points out the difference between the fantasy community and the professional analyst community. Popularly being compared to Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown, Burks simply didn’t perform to their level, running an official 4.55 40, and displaying pedestrian explosion and agility metrics. Whether Burks’ performance results in an erosion in his dynasty ranking is yet to be seen, but I simply needed to see more. Look no further than recent Twitter darling N’Keal Harry with regard to size, collegiate production and Combine performance to see the most compelling downside comp. At nearly every turn and comp, the two are very similar. And Harry outperformed Burks at the Combine.
Hope you enjoyed this look at some of the risers and fallers following this years Combine. If you have thoughts, comments or questions, let me know in the comments below.
As always, be happy, be kind and be good to each other!
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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