Dynasty Danger: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
One of the most important parts of succeeding in dynasty leagues is getting out from under dying assets before the bottom falls out. Even though some of these players have already declined in value, I believe that they will suffer a further drop soon. It can be challenging to sell veterans at this time of year, but I want to put these players on your radar at least. Dynasty managers may want to consider moving on sooner rather than later.
When breaking down a dynasty danger player, I split my analysis into three sections: career statistics, future situation, and ADP and trade value. I wrote this series last off-season, and included the links to those articles at the bottom of the piece if you want to get an idea of what it looks like. My first entry on this series was on Saquon Barkley. But now, I want to get to another hyped running back. Let’s jump into it!
Background
If you follow me and my Twitter or YouTube content at all, you know that I hate Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Well, hate is a strong word. I typically root for all NFL players to succeed, and I never want to see anyone fail. However, I understand why I seem to have more animosity toward him than other players, especially since he’s probably one of the least popular players in all of dynasty fantasy football.
In May 2020’s rookie DLF ADP, Edwards-Helaire was the 1.01 overall selection, ahead of current first-round startup picks Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson. Even some of the other players who haven’t done as much like Cam Akers and JK Dobbins carry significantly more value than him. If you passed on Taylor for Edwards-Helaire, I can’t imagine you think much of Edwards-Helaire outside of what could’ve been.
Career Statistics
Edwards-Helaire went to college at LSU, where he had a mixed career.
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
In 2017, he sat on the bench behind Derrius Guice and future Chiefs’ teammate Darrel Williams, essentially showing nothing of any substance. Then in 2018, he saw slightly more work, but Nick Brossette started ahead of him. Considering that Brossette never did anything at the NFL level, that didn’t bode well for Edwards-Helaire.
Going into the 2019 season, LSU had intriguing freshman running back John Emery Jr, who most devy analysts expected to push Edwards-Helaire to the side rather quickly. However, the exact opposite occurred, as Edwards-Helaire broke out for a monster season. He suddenly averaged 6.6 YPC and turned into a receiving monster with 55 receptions for 453 yards. Then, of course, he decided to declare for the NFL Draft, alongside teammates Joe Burrow and Justin Jefferson.
As most of you probably know, Edwards-Helaire was the first running back off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft, going with the 32nd overall pick to the Kansas City Chiefs. Most dynasty analysts saw him as a perfect fit in the Chiefs’ offense, especially given his receiving traits. Kareem Hunt and Damien Williams showed receiving upside in the Andy Reid offense relatively recently, so Edwards-Helaire had a solid template to succeed.
Dynasty managers completely bought into Edwards-Helaire during the 2020 off-season.
Chart courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.
As you can see, he was a fifth-round startup pick in the three months of pre-NFL Draft ADP, ranging from 53rd to 60th overall. However, once the Chiefs selected him in the first round, he immediately jumped to 12th overall, maintaining almost precisely that value in June and July. Then, Williams opted out of the 2020 season for COVID-19 concerns just before August’s ADP, vaulting Edwards-Helaire to fifth overall.
At that price, there’s almost no way he could pay off, an observation that looks obvious in hindsight.
Chart courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Unfortunately, he’s pretty much delivered his floor outcome in two seasons as the starter. He missed ten of a possible 33 regular-season games due to injuries, plus a playoff game each year.
Even in the games he played, he failed to show his college skills. 2.4 receptions and 18.5 receiving yards per game are honestly anemic considering his billing as a receiving back. Even worse, he regressed in those categories from 2020 to 2021, and he also had fewer carries per game and YPC. Most notably, the Chiefs have shown their cards in Edwards-Helaire’s four playoff games, as he saw below a 50% snap share in all of them. He fell to an abysmal 19% snap share in the AFC Championship loss to the Bengals, while journeyman Jerick McKinnon served as the lead back. If the Chiefs won’t trust Edwards-Helaire with their season at stake, that shows what they really think of him.
Edwards-Helaire has also been a disaster for fantasy football in addition to his real-life failures.
Charts courtesy of DLF Player Scoring History App.
Somehow, he’s only managed two top-five games out of 23, which is insane for the starting running back on the Chiefs’ offense. He also finished outside the top-24 in ten of 23 games, hurting your team in those contests.
Even worse, though, 2021 displayed that Edwards-Helaire isn’t even clearly the best fantasy running back in the Chiefs’ offense.
Only Williams had any top-five weeks during the 2021 season, and he managed eight top-24 performances despite only starting seven games. Additionally, Williams had more than double Edwards-Helaire’s targets, receptions, and receiving yards, as the Chiefs often turned to him on third down. Overall, it’s impossible to call Edwards-Helaire’s first two seasons anything other than a total bust.
Future Situation
As bad as Edwards-Helaire has been, his future situation will be even worse than his previous two seasons. The Chiefs’ offense has been a force of nature ever since Patrick Mahomes became their starting quarterback, so you would think the starting running back would be a fantasy star. But clearly, Edwards-Helaire has not become that type of player, even though he competed with Williams, Le’Veon Bell, Darwin Thompson, Jerick McKinnon, and Derrick Gore for touches in 2020 and 2021.
Moving forward, the Chiefs have to see that Edwards-Helaire is nothing more than a complementary running back at best and a backup at worst. They cannot proceed with the dumpster fire of alternatives they’ve had the last two years. Williams is a fine player, but he is an unrestricted free agent. McKinnon had one nice game in the playoffs, and he may serve as their RB3 again in 2022, but nothing more.
Therefore, I fully expect the Chiefs to sign a solid veteran like Melvin Gordon, James Conner, Sony Michel, or Leonard Fournette in free agency. Edwards-Helaire is utterly incompetent at the goal line, as his smaller size prevents him from converting those looks into touchdowns. In 2022, I believe one of those players will serve as the Chiefs’ goal-line back while also eating into the receiving work. Essentially, I expect Edwards-Helaire to no longer be the Chiefs’ clear starter after free agency.
Current ADP and Trade Value
Thankfully, dynasty managers have finally realized that Edwards-Helaire is a toxic asset, as he plummeted to RB26 and 68.83 overall in DLF’s February ADP.
Even as recently as December, he was inside the top 40 in ADP data, but it seems like his poor playoff performances finally took his ADP down. However, despite his new lower ADP, I still value him almost a round and a half lower than that value.
For comparison, the DLF Trade Analyzer values him similarly to the 1.08 rookie pick in a 1QB league.
I wouldn’t give any first-rounder for Edwards-Helaire, even in a 1QB format. I think his value will continue to plummet, and I’d prefer to start over with another player. If you can obtain anything like this deal, sell him immediately.
2021 Entries: Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four, Dalvin Cook, Carson Wentz, DeVante Parker, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
