Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Michael Thomas or the 2022 1.12 Rookie Pick?

Michael Thomas

Jeff Smith Posted On February 22, 2022

Welcome to Would You Rather: Dynasty Edition, a new series from DLF based on the popular board game. Each week we post a poll on Twitter asking fans who they prefer between a player or a certain pick. These are players and picks that are equal in value based on data from the DLF Trade Analyzer. We will cover the results and discuss both sides of the poll in depth. Let’s get right to it!

Michael Thomas Versus 1.12: The Results

Last week, we posted a poll of how folks prefer the 1.03 against rostering Derrick Henry. This week’s results were almost dead even.

Which do you prefer?

— DLF (@DLFootball) February 8, 2022

This one was about as close as you can get, with voters preferring the pick by just a smidge. Here are the values of each asset from the DLF trade analyzer.

Data Courtesy of DLF Trade Analyzer.

A Case for the Pick

Based on the most recent rookie mock draft run by the DLF team and broken down by Ryan McDowell, you would be trading Thomas to select one of three players:

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR Kentucky

Robinson set a school record for receptions at Kentucky last season with 104 catches, which he turned into 1,334 yards and seven touchdowns.

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

George Pickens, WR Georgia

If the Wildcat is gone at 1.12, then Pickens is another receiving option. The 6’3”, 200-pound receiver only played 24 games in college and just 12 over the past two seasons due to an ACL injury. The Bulldog is long on talent and is being projected as a second-round pick in April.

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Kyren Williams, RB Notre Dame

Finally, if you want to pivot and turn the pick into a running back instead of a receiver, then Williams should be there for you. He is ranked fourth in the DLF rookie RB rankings and does everything well.

Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.

Williams is just behind Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller, and Kenneth Walker III in those rankings. Where he lands will go a long way in determining his value in rookie drafts.

A Case For Thomas

Thomas ended up missing all of 2021 with an ankle injury that required surgery after the 2020 season. The four-time 1,000-yard receiver was supposed to come back during the season, but a setback took that possibility out of the equation. When healthy, the Ohio State grad has been one of the best receivers in the NFL.

Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Player Data App.

Thomas finished as a WR1 all four years he has been in the league and was the number one overall receiver in 2020. You might think the departure of Drew Brees will hurt the steady wideout, but we do have ten games of data in which the future Brees was not the signal-caller, and surprisingly, Thomas’s numbers are almost identical.

Data Courtesy of DLF Player Splits App.

The bigger concern might be the departure of head coach Sean Payton. Pete Carmichael is still the offensive coordinator and has been since 2009, but the offense has Payton’s fingerprints all over it. There may not be any change, but it should at least be factored into the future when talking about the value of Thomas. Carmichael has had success with receivers his entire career in New Orleans.

Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.

Whether Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, or Thomas, there has been a WR1 or WR2 finish for the Saints every year except for 2014 and this past season. Thomas is under contract through the 2024 season so barring a trade, he will be in New Orleans for the next couple of years.

Conclusion

As is the case with anything dynasty-related, team needs, league size, scoring, and aversion to risk play a role in how you construct your roster. There are a lot of question marks surrounding the veteran wideout and age is also now starting to be a concern (he is 29). There will also be a new head coach and a new quarterback in New Orleans in 2022. With all of that being said, we would lean towards wanting the pick in this deal.

Author
Recent Posts

Jeff Smith

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Jeff is a “jack of all trades” type fantasy player. He specializes in dynasty but also dabbles in redraft and DFS. Baseball and golf are other fantasy formats he partakes in regularly. Family, sports and IT are his biggest passions.

He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.