Monday Mocks: February Dynasty Startup ADP

Ryan McDowell Posted On February 21, 2022

Welcome to Monday Mocks, where I’ll bring you… you guessed it, a new mock draft every Monday during the off-season. In my opinion, drafting is the best part of fantasy football, so I do as much of that as I can. This series will be filled with all types of mocks. We’ll draft startups, rookies, devys and more.

If you are an avid consumer of our monthly dynasty ADP data, you might be wondering why February’s data hasn’t shown up yet. This now marks ten years that I’ve been collecting dynasty ADP data for DLF and my favorite month is always February. With the Super Bowl in the rear-view mirror, the new crop of rookies is added to the player pool and the new dynasty year truly begins.

This year, with the additional week of NFL action in the regular season, the entire process was slightly delayed but the good news is you’ll be able to see the full collection of dynasty ADP data soon, including players like Treylon Burks, Breece Hall and the rest of the 2022 rookie class.

Until then, I wanted to share an early look at how the top rounds of our February ADP are settling in, broken down by tiers. You’ll also notice the players’ actual ADP included in parentheses. That is very important for actually creating those tiers.

TIER ONE

1.01 Jonathan Taylor, RB IND (1.7)

1.02 Justin Jefferson, WR MIN (2.8)

1.03 Ja’Marr Chase, WR CIN (3.5)

This trio of young stars have established themselves as the obvious top tier in 1QB dynasty startups this off-season. Debates will continue about which former LSU wideout should actually be the WR1 but regardless who you prefer, Jefferson and Chase are together at the top of the list. Taylor holds down the top overall spot once again and the three players are actually in the same exact order as last month.

TIER TWO

1.04 Najee Harris, RB PIT (6)

1.05 D’Andre Swift, RB DET (7.3)

While the identity of the RB1 is clear, things get very shaky after that. Harris and Swift would not be my personal choice as the next two guys in line and certainly wouldn’t be in their own tier, but this is how the data shakes out. Harris moves up three spots from January while Swift drops one notch.

TIER THREE

1.06 Kyle Pitts, TE ATL (9.3)

1.07 Cooper Kupp, WR LAR (9.5)

1.08 CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL (9.8)

1.09 AJ Brown, WR TEN (10.8)

1.10 Christian McCaffrey, RB CAR (11)

1.11 Javonte Williams, RB DEN (12)

1.12 DK Metcalf, WR SEA (12.7)

To complete round one, we get a massive tier of seven players. In my own rankings, the above Harris and Swift would be mixed in with this group. Coming off an impressive rookie year, Pitts continues to gain value and move up the board. While this is the fourth consecutive month Pitts has held a round one spot, the ADP rank of six is his new high mark. It’s also the highest ADP rank for a tight end since October of 2015 when Rob Gronkowski was a top-five player.

This is also by far the highest-ever ADP for Kupp, who cracks round one for the first time in his career. Dynasty managers are clearly frustrated with Lamb, who falls out of the top six for the first time since the preseason. McCaffrey is still hanging onto his round one ADP, something he’s done every month since the pre-season of 2018.

TIER FOUR

2.01 Deebo Samuel, WR SF (14.8)

2.02 Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA (14.8)

2.03 Tyreek Hill, WR KC (15.5)

We get a clean tier break between the first two rounds as Samuel and Waddle, both with an ADP of 14.8, fall behind Metcalf by a relatively significant gap. The pair of breakout receivers bypassing both Hill and Adams is very significant though and either being valued as first-round picks at some point this offseason would not be a surprise.

TIER FIVE

2.04 Dalvin Cook, RB MIN (17.2)

2.05 Tee Higgins, WR CIN (17.7)

2.06 Davante Adams, WR GB (17.7)

2.07 Joe Mixon, RB CIN (18.3)

2.08 Austin Ekeler, RB LAC (18.3)

The fifth tier, representing the middle of the second round, is mostly comprised of veterans who are slowly trending down and draining dynasty value. Of course, this includes Cook and Adams, two regulars among the top 12 over the past few years. Mixon and Ekeler actually gained value this season after they each stayed healthy and set a new personal best for fantasy points in a season.

Higgins is the outlier here and for much of the season, he was overshadowed by teammate Chase. After an impressive post-season, dynasty managers have seemingly figured out that Higgins too can be a high-level producer. He’ll be a borderline first-round pick by the end of the off-season.

TIER SIX

2.09 Derrick Henry, RB TEN (20.7)

I don’t normally like to create single-player tiers in rankings or ADP, but it makes sense in this case. We already know Henry is a unicorn, a most unique player and dynasty case study for many reasons. Coming off another amazing start to his season before suffering a serious foot injury, dynasty managers seem conflicted when it comes to what type of value to place on the 28-year old running back. Henry’s ADP is up more than a full round from last month. Among our six mock drafts, Henry was a top-five pick in two drafts, while he was drafted in round three of the other four mocks.

TIER SEVEN

2.10 Mark Andrews, TE BAL (24.5)

2.11 Cam Akers, RB LAR (25.8)

2.12 JK Dobbins, RB BAL (26.5)

The final tier of the top-24 player group includes a pair of Ravens in Andrews and Dobbins. Dobbins and Akers each lost a huge amount of dynasty value following their serious injuries, but both continue to trend up. Dobbins climbs two spots from last month while Akers moves up ten spots following his miraculous return to the field late in the season.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.