20/20: Jahan Dotson, WR Penn State
Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we profile 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2022 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1. Player Name: Jahan Dotson
2. College: Penn State
3. Height/Weight: 5-11, 184 lbs
4. Birthdate: 4/28/2000
5. Class: Senior
6. Basic college stats: Dotson produced 2,757 receiving yards and 25 receiving touchdowns over four years.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
7. NFL draft round projection: He is currently projected in the first round of the NFL Draft by mock drafters.
Data from NFL Mock Draft Database.
8. Skipped Senior Bowl? Dotson chose to skip the Senior Bowl. However, this doesn’t seem to have overly affected his draft projection as he has maintained an average draft pick of 30th since early February.
9. Current rookie rank: DLF has Dotson ranked as the 12th overall pick and the eighth-highest wide receiver.
10. Dynasty Value: As a Penn State WR expected to run a great 40-yard dash at the Scouting Combine, in a class that is thin with ceiling projections, Dotson could work his way into some high dynasty value that would be easy to sustain with a 600-yard rookie season.
11. Good production? Ultimately, in my opinion, Dotson looks like a breakout who ascended to the top receiving role after KJ Hamler and Pat Freiermuth left for the NFL. His Market Share and Yards Per Team Pass Attempt are below the average for players who have gone on to do well for fantasy in the NFL.
12. Conference Drafted Rate: As a senior with mediocre production but a first-round projection, you’d expect Dotson to come from a heavily drafted conference. But Penn State is from a relatively low drafted conference, with 4.4% of top three rounds players at the position since 2009. That said, both Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson were drafted from Penn State over the last few years inside the first three rounds and have had success in the NFL.
13. Current College comp: One of my closest statistical comparisons for Dotson is Vincent Brown, taken in the third round of the 2011 NFL Draft by the (San Diego) Chargers. But Brown had nowhere near the speed that Dotson is supposed to demonstrate, and came from a much lower drafted conference (MWC, 1.3%). I can’t find anyone with his college statistics, as a four-year senior, with first-round draft capital to compare to.
14. Senior Declare: I don’t think we have to be concerned about all senior declares. But it is often mentioned as a lower hit rate group, even for those drafted in the first round.
Since 2015 there have been eight seniors drafted in the first round: Phillip Dorsett, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Josh Doctson, Corey Davis, Brandon Aiyuk, Kadarius Toney, and DeVonta Smith.
Only one has a top 12 season (PPR) – Parker in his fourth career year.
15. Positive Spin: Dotson had two years with a Dominator Rating over a 40% and an above-average 2.86 receiving YTMpA season in 2020. His career progression in looks similar to DeVonta Smith, a recent senior declare who had a good rookie season and rose from a fifth-round start-up pick in august 2021 to a third-round start-up pick now.
This graph is my own – data from my database.
16. Punt Returns: Being used on special teams is a positive sign for a player’s dynamic abilities on the field and has often been connected to players with underrated upside. Dotson has had a strong punt return role at Penn State throughout his college career.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
17. Best Landing Spot: I think anywhere in the first round is a win but Dotson looks to me like someone who might have a better chance to excel as a support player in an already dominant receiving core. The Kansas City Chiefs fit that bill but are unlikely to look for a wide receiver in the first round.
18. Worst Landing spot: I think the worst landing spot would be a team that needs their early drafted wide receiver to do a lot of the work elevating a team. The Detroit Lions and New York Jets come to mind.
19. Missed time: Dotson didn’t miss much time in college due to injury. He did miss some time in high school after suffering a broken leg (while playing quarterback, of all things).
20. Draft Capital Expectations: I think expectations for a wide receiver’s draft capital are elevated. Over the last two years, we have seen 11 wide receivers drafted in the first round but there were 11 players drafted in the first round in total for the four classes from 2016 to 2019.
Despite not profiling “well” compared to past prospects, Dotson has had an impressive college career and has done more than enough to expect he could perform well if he lands in the right spot. I’m hoping the lack of high-end profiles this year doesn’t create a worse situation because of exaggerated draft capital expectations.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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