Dynasty Decision: Stefon Diggs
One of my favorite things about dynasty is the difference in opinion that each individual has when it comes to what to do with high-priced players as they begin to reach that final peak value point.
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline, only to go on defying the odds.
I wanted to dive into a few players who are approaching the point at which we expect their value to decline. Should you be holding onto them and making the most of their production. Should you be moving them on and getting a return before their price plummets?
Up next…
Stefon Diggs, WR BUF
Diggs has had somewhat of a surprising career since being selected by the Minnesota Vikings in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. He has turned himself into an elite fantasy performer and a top-12 wide receiver over the past few years.
He is now 28 years old and entering the point of his career where dynasty owners need to make a decision as to what to do next.
Previous Performance
Image from DLF’s Yearly Data App.
To date, it’s been an impressive run. Diggs has finished as a top-30 wide receiver every year since his rookie season, including three top-12 finishes in the past four years. It is a truly remarkable return and he has been a major part of many contending teams over the years, I’m sure.
From the moment he stepped on the field, Diggs has been a quarterback’s best friend. An elite route-runner who can create separation at will, he has seen greater than a 20% target share in every year of his career. Since moving to Buffalo via trade in the 2020 off-season, he has seen target shares of 30% and 26% respectively. High target volumes lead to fantasy success and Diggs is a perfect example of that.
Situation and Usage
In his first season with Buffalo, Diggs quickly became Josh Allen’s top option, commanding that impressive 30% target share and 160 targets. However, this last season as we saw more receiving options come to the fore in Buffalo, his target share dropped to 26% (or 151 targets) even despite the extra game. The arrival of Emmanuel Sanders and the emergence of Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox were the main reasons why.
Furthermore, The Bills saw an increase in the prevalence of two-high safety looks by opposition defenses, designed to slow their explosive passing attack. This led to an increase in their rushing play percentage from 38.29% in 2020 to 40.79% in 2021. That 2.5% may not sound like a lot but it equates to 2.6 extra rushing attempts per game. The increase in runs further ate into Diggs’s workload.
Looking into 2022, there is some hope that he could return to the increased target volumes. Sanders is a free agent. Cole Beasley is potentially on the chopping block as the Bills could save $6.1m in cap space if they moved on from him. When combined with his diminishing return, it feels like it could be likely.
Losing the second and third leading targets would likely be a great thing for Diggs. However, this could easily be countered with Knox and Davis taking on a larger role as well as the Bills adding in another option to the receiving core in either free agency or the draft.
Taking all of that into account, I expect the 2021 season and that 26% target share to be the norm for 2022, rather than the outlier 2020 season.
Health
Having not missed a game since he arrived in Buffalo, it’s hard to ding Diggs from a health perspective. He has appeared on one pregame injury report since 2019. Yes, the 28-year-old receiver is beginning to approach the point at which injuries begin to cause concern. However, as a player who doesn’t rely on elite athleticism and hasn’t had a track record of injuries, it is looking positive moving forward from a health standpoint.
ADP and Trade Value
The WR13 and 24th overall player in January ADP. recent trades of Diggs include:
The Trade Analyzer values him as a little less than the 1.03 or a mid 22 first and a 23 first in a 1QB league.
I think his valuation is about right, maybe a little expensive if anything. As discussed earlier, he is likely to produce solid back-end WR1 numbers but not replicate that incredible 2020 season. As a contender, you’re likely valuing him as a solid WR1 or high-end WR2 for your roster and two mid-firsts feel roughly appropriate.
Conclusion
Realistically Diggs is approaching that age plateau where receivers begin to reduce in productivity. As a result, his price will only decline consistently moving forward. How you’re viewing him is almost directly linked to your roster situation.
If you’re a contending team, you’re likely penciling in Diggs as a reliable and consistent performer who will help you win over the next two years. You’re not concerned about the reduction in price because he will help you win.
If you’re in a rebuild situation, this is likely the very last window to get peak value on an aging player. I would be proactively looking to move him in the next month or so before rookie fever begins to take over and player age becomes a hot topic.
In a neutral situation, I would lean towards looking to pivot off of the 28-year-old receiver now. Due to his increasing age, there is no chance his price is going to increase. Even if he were to put together an overall WR1 season in 2022 (which seems unlikely) it’s hard to see him maintaining a top-12 price as an age-29 receiver heading into the final year of his contract.
This is likely the final opportunity to gain peak value and therefore I’d make that move. The move I would be looking to make would be targeting one of the young sophomore receivers. If you could trade Diggs for Elijah Moore or DeVonta Smith plus another asset, it would enable you to continue to compete and buy back years.
If you missed the first article in my Dynasty Decision series, go back and read about Nick Chubb.
- Dynasty Decision: Christian McCaffrey - June 13, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: DK Metcalf - June 6, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Breece Hall - May 30, 2025
