2022 Dynasty Capsule: Indianapolis Colts

The Colts’ 2021 season could ultimately be defined by the phrase “what could have been?” In week two they lost to the Rams by a field goal with two minutes left. They also lost overtime contests to both the Ravens and Titans, blowing a 16-point lead in the former (with two missed field goals that could have iced the game) and a 14-point lead in the latter. They lost a last-minute contest on the road to Tampa, and then a three-point affair to the Raiders when they converted a field goal with no time left on the clock. Finally, with the playoffs on the line in the season finale, they were blown out by a Jaguars team with two wins to its name at the time.

Second in the league in rushing and 26th in passing, the Colts were exactly average in terms of total yards (16th), and even finished ninth in points scored. Incredibly, they also finished 16th in yards against and ninth in points against, seemingly belying the eventual 9-8 record. But regardless of the reason and even despite the ultimate mediocrity, the Colts had a few fantasy-relevant players.

Let’s take a look at the season that was.

Quarterback

*57 rushes for 215 yards and one touchdown

Carson Wentz (ADP = 190.3, QB23)

A cursory look at Wentz’s stats show a quarterback who cared more about protecting the ball than he did about creating big plays, as evidenced by a sub-7.0 YPA. Unfortunately, even in doing so, he was unable to complete passes at a rate expected of a dink and dunk signal-caller. Continuing, despite a reasonable touchdown rate (5.2%), Wentz was only able to finish as a high-end QB2. Digging deeper, of quarterbacks who managed to appear in all 17 games, Wentz only managed to finish ahead of three other players, two of whom were 2021 rookies.

The dynasty masses are in lockstep with Indy brass, with no one seemingly willing to commit to Wentz as their quarterback of the future. To that point, despite being reasonably young (29 as of December) and finishing as the 2021 QB14, he’s only being drafted as the QB23 by ADP. While he’s managed to maintain a promising 2.5:1 touchdown to interception ratio over the course of his career, he’s only cleared 7.0 YPA in two of six seasons, and a 64.0% completion rate once.

Ultimately, Wentz is approaching roster clogger status in 1QB leagues, and stands as a bottom barrel option in 2QB or superflex leagues. You probably have to keep him around because there are only 32 starting signal-callers in the league, but you’re not going to feel confident with him in your starting lineup. I’d probably be a seller, even at the price point of a bag of peanuts.

Jacob Eason (ADP = N/A)

20% of Eason’s five 2021 passing attempts wound up in the hands of the other team. Eason was released in October and is currently a backup on the Seahawks. He doesn’t deserve roster consideration in any league, except for those who reward gameday inactive statuses.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor (ADP = 1.2, RB1)

In just his second season in the league, Taylor was a destroyer of worlds. He had ten 100-yard rushing games and a 100-yard receiving game to boot, with 13 games of over 100 total yards. After being held out of the end zone in the first three weeks of the season, he produced at least one score in 12 of the remaining 14 contests, with five weeks yielding multi-score efforts. He single-handedly won his owners a matchup in a November clash against the Bills, where he had over 200 total yards, three receptions and a mammoth five scores.

Not shockingly, Taylor is the near-unanimous number one player across all positions, being selected first overall in five of the six January 2022 mock drafts (Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson edged him out in the sixth). Aside from a spry Austin Ekeler who nearly matched him on a per-game basis, he lapped the field with 76.4 more points than the PPR RB3 (Najee Harris), 87.2 more points than the PPR RB4 (Joe Mixon), and a colossal 119.4 more points than the PPR RB5 (Touchdown James Conner). He led the league in carries, yards and touchdowns, and averaged a monster 5.5 YPC, with his 40 receptions functioning as the cherry on top. And beyond all of that, he only just turned 23 years old in January.

Regardless of league setting and positional preference, Taylor is the pick at 1.01 in startup drafts. If you don’t like running backs, take him anyway and trade him for a haul. If you’re currently rostering him, resist the urge to get cute and sell him at the “peak of his value” because “running backs don’t last.” Nothing is ever guaranteed, but you should feel confident in an ability to enjoy the ride as Taylor more than likely continues to pile up points in your starting lineup for years to come.

Nyheim Hines (ADP = 159.3, RB52)

At this time last year, Hines was undoubtedly still toasting a finish as the PPR RB18, which vaulted him to a dynasty status as the overall RB39. He was on his way to getting paid just prior to the 2021 season opener to the tune of three years and $18.6 million, with $12 million guaranteed. In short, things were looking good.

Unfortunately for Hines, what followed was a 2021 campaign that saw the change-of-pace ball carrier finish with fewer carries, targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns, barely eclipsing 100 total touches on the season despite the extra game. Inclusive of his $6 million signing bonus, Hines secured just under $12k per yard earned on the year. Not a bad living for the young running back, but assuredly far from what his owners were hoping.

Much can be attributed to the firm emergence of Taylor, inclusive of his usage in the passing game. Alarmingly for Hines, it wasn’t just that Taylor was used through the air, it was that he was also more efficient in terms of catch percentage, YPR and receiving scores. Regardless of what Hines is getting paid, it would be the definition of coaching malfeasance to take Taylor out of the game unless he’s getting tired.

At cost as an RB5, Hines is a fine hold. But as long as he’s stuck on a team with Taylor, his ceiling is going to be capped as a lightly used backup.

Marlon Mack (ADP = 216.0, RB67)

It’s easy to forget that prior to a 2020 Achilles tear, Mack was running hot as the Colts lead back, even outplaying Taylor early in the year and securing the starter’s share. However, following the injury and Taylor’s emergence, Mack was placed firmly on the back of the shelf next to the long-expired can of wax beans. Then, an odd thing happened – and then another odd thing happened.

First, Mack was supplied with 24 looks (20 carries and four targets) over a three-game stretch in October. This was ostensibly done with an eye toward the trade deadline, but in the second odd occurrence, Mack was never dealt. After that, he was mothballed, not seeing a single touch from November onward.

Mack will be 26 in March, and is a UFA entering the 2022 season. At the price of an RB6 I’d take a chance on him. He undoubtedly won’t be signed anywhere as a starter, but could be just an injury or two away from seeing significant action.

Deon Jackson (ADP = N/A)

Jackson saw a bit of run at the end of the year, after compiling reasonable metrics at his Pro Day at Duke. Unfortunately for Jackson, his college numbers (4.3 aggregate YPC) don’t portend well for his future as a viable ball carrier, and it wouldn’t be surprising if his place in the Colts’ hierarchy is usurped in 2022.

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman Jr. (ADP = 43.3, WR21)

Following a reasonable rookie season, Pittman morphed into the team’s alpha wide receiver as a sophomore, effectively doubling (or more) his production across the board. To quantitate that statement, the young pass-catcher went from a 40-503-1 line as a first-year player to an 88-1082-6 mark, while increasing his targets from 60 to 129. Despite the poor passing offense, he was able to finish the year as a mid-range PPR WR2.

To further add numerical context, Pittman had just one fewer reception on his own than did the rest of the Colts’ receiving corps, and just 20 fewer yards (including three receivers accounting for a 5-52-1 not noted in the table above). Even accounting for all skill position players, Pittman accrued 24.8% of the team’s targets, 27.2% of receptions, 30.2% of yards and 22.2% of scores. In short, Pittman was easily the team’s preferred option, as evidenced by him leading the team in yardage in 11 of 17 contests.

Pittman just turned 24 in October, and despite his strong numbers in only his second season is being drafted as the WR21. This may be due to a glut of high-end talent at the position, as he’s still being selected in the middle of the fourth round in startup drafts. For that price, I’d be a buyer.

Zach Pascal (ADP = N/A)

Following two straight seasons of eerily similar (albeit largely replaceable) statistics, Pascal fell off hard with 245 fewer yards on just two fewer targets. His average YPR dropped off by over 4.0 yards, and he converted roughly half the number of first downs as compared to the two years prior. While it may be somewhat disingenuous to write a player off after just four years in the league, Pascal has yet to break into the realm of the fantasy-relevant, and in fact appears to be moving further away.

Pascal is a free agent and will be lucky to secure a WR3 position. Even if he re-signs with the Colts, the team needs to do better at WR2. Pascal perhaps merits residence on watch lists in deeper leagues, but doesn’t belong on fantasy rosters.

TY Hilton (ADP = 222.7, WR96)

It doesn’t feel like all that long ago when I was still going to bat for Hilton as an underappreciated and undervalued dynasty asset. After all he had six seasons in a row of accumulating at least 966 yards, while commanding at least 108 targets each year. Unfortunately, since that time Hilton has only managed an aggregate 124-1,594-13 over the past three years, while also missing 14 games in the process.

Now 32 years of age, Hilton can no longer rely on the speed and quicks that turned him into a fantasy starter stalwart. Rumors also persist that he may even be contemplating retirement. His current dynasty valuation seems about right, though I’d rather take a swing at a younger player who still has a theoretical prime ahead of him. Hilton was a strong asset for many years, but we may have now seen his swan song.

Ashton Dulin (ADP = 236.7, WR112)

Dulin was selected 215th overall in exactly one of six drafts, which means it’s good to know that someone in his family plays dynasty fantasy football! The former UDFA concluded his third season in the league, setting a high watermark with 13 receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Needless to say, he has yet to put forward a fantasy-relevant season but perhaps bailed out the degenerates bold enough to start him in daily leagues when he corralled a 62-yard score versus the Bucs!

Dulin is an RFA entering 2022 so the Colts can bring him back if they’d like. While he may be a valuable depth piece, fantasy owners need to aim higher.

Parris Campbell (ADP = 191.7, WR83)

To date, Campbell has existed as one of the most star-crossed assets in dynasty football. He’s only managed to appear in 15 games across three seasons, compiling 34 receptions for 360 yards and two scores. As a former second-round pick, and while acknowledging injuries are clearly out of his control, both the Colts and fantasy owners expected more.

Campbell is entering the final season of his contract, and as such is running out of time to prove his NFL and fantasy viability. However, it’s fair to wonder if an accumulation of foot, ankle, knee, and abdominal injuries may have sapped his electricity. Still young and with high draft capital, I’d probably take a chance at cost, but more likely as a throw-in to a larger deal and not a player I’d be actively seeking out.

Tight End

Mo Alie-Cox (ADP = N/A)

There’s no doubt Cox hasn’t been a fantasy world-beater the past few seasons as he’s been cannibalized by the likes of Doyle and Trey Burton. Seemingly a perpetual tease due to his athleticism and basketball background (stop me if you’ve heard that one before…), Cox remains without a 400-yard season to his name. A UFA entering the 2022 season, perhaps a change of scenery could do some good for the 28-year old. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t done enough in fantasy box scores to justify using a coveted roster spot in shallower leagues. At best, he’s worth monitoring pending his landing spot.

Jack Doyle (ADP = N/A)

Another year, another subpar season from the former PPR TE1. Unfortunately, owners would have to look way back to 2017 to find a time when the erstwhile starter accrued more than 72 targets in a given year. Even then, the veteran functioned as a catch and fall artist, and to date has yet to break 11.0 YPR in any of his nine years in the league.

Doyle will be 32 before entering the 2022 season, and much like with Hilton there exist rumors he may be willing to call it quits, though it’s notable he remains under contract for the upcoming year. With Cox potentially moving on down the road there’s a shallow argument to be made that Doyle could come into some fantasy viability, but dynasty owners clearly aren’t having it, as evidenced by his current absence of draft capital. He remains a decent hold in deep leagues, and watch list material everywhere else.

Kylen Granson (ADP = 228.0, TE34)

Despite functioning as the least fantasy viable among the Colts’ trio of tight ends in 2021, the rookie Granson is the only one carrying a modicum of value. As a fourth-round pick last season, Granson brings only middling draft capital with him, though he was able to prove above-average traits at SMU’s Pro Day. He also broke out as a junior in college, albeit as an older player following a transfer from Rice.

All told, Granson’s valuation seems about right. He’s firmly in the area of “close your eyes, throw the dart and see what happens,” which is traditionally where many of the day two and day three metrics darlings wind up after failing to produce in Year One in the NFL. I’d be interested in Granson solely due to the fact that if Cox moves on and Doyle retires he might suddenly find himself as the team’s TE1, but be very clear – this would be more a purchase of opportunity, and not any sort of spiritual belief in the young man’s prospects. He’s the equivalent of a scratch-off lottery ticket – you don’t expect to win even a fraction of the time, but if you do you might just be set for years after spending mere pennies.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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