Dynasty Fantasy Football Decision: Would You Rather Derrick Henry or the 2022 1.03 Rookie Pick?

Derrick Henry

Jeff Smith Posted On February 14, 2022

Welcome to Would You Rather: Dynasty Edition, a new series from DLF based on the popular board game.

Each week we post a poll on Twitter asking fans who they prefer between a player or a certain pick. These are players and picks that are equal in value based on data from the DLF Trade Analyzer. We will cover the results and discuss both sides of the poll in depth. Let’s get right to it!

Derrick Henry Versus 1.03: The Results

Last week we posted a poll of how folks prefer an early first-round pick against rostering Stefon Diggs. There are now more specific data on the value of rookie picks based on the actual selection instead of just a generalization so these are getting more and more accurate in terms of value as we approach the actual NFL Draft. This week’s results were almost dead even.

Which do you prefer? #dynasty

— DLF (@DLFootball) February 3, 2022

This one was about as close as you can get, both in terms of the results and the values from the DLF trade analyzer.

A Case for the Pick

Based on the most recent rookie mock draft run by the DLF team and broken down by Ryan McDowell this past Monday, you would be trading Henry for Iowa State running back Breece Hall. You can read much more about Hall here courtesy of our very own Shane Manila.

We do not want to beleaguer the point too much, but David Montgomery’s successor in college could begin his NFL career just as well if not better than the current Chicago Bear. As Shane mentions in his breakdown, Hall is a top-three back and draft capital will go a long way towards determining his value, especially as a replacement for Henry.

1.) Isaiah Spiller, RB Texas A&M

2.) Breece Hall, RB Iowa State

3.) Treylon Burks, WR Arkansas

4.) Garrett Wilson, WR Ohio State

In case you missed it last week, the list above reflects the top-four rookies ranked by the team at DLF. So if Hall was not your flavor, you could certainly expect to get someone else like Treylon Burks or Garrett Wilson if you were so inclined.

A Case For Henry

Henry’s age may be scaring some away based on the poll results, but if you are a contender right now, then a solid argument can be made for hanging on to the stud running back from Alabama. The veteran has been an RB2 or better for the past four seasons, including an RB5 finish in 2019 followed up by an RB3 finish in 2020.

The former national champion finished as the RB21 in 2021 despite playing in just eight games. Yes. Eight games! Henry accomplished this feat by averaging the most points per game in the league at the position, with 23.4. This was all done despite only catching 18 passes. The Titans grinder is the antithesis of what we typically look for in a PPR back but he sure does get the job done.

In exactly half of the games played (four), Henry produced a top-five finish and was an RB1 in five of eight games. His worst game of the season came in week one when all players were adapting to a new shortened preseason and limited workload in August. The shortened season could help extend the career of the 6’3”, 247-pound back.

When healthy, “King Henry” approaches nearly one point every time he touches the ball. This is insane when we compare him to another every-down back in Ezekiel Elliott, who is two years younger and thought to have a better offensive line.

One last stat to throw out there: Henry was still seventh in rushing touchdowns despite playing half a season. Sure, touchdowns are not a “sticky” statistic, but who would you count on more in the red zone than the big man from Tennessee?

Conclusion

As is the case with anything dynasty-related, team needs, league size, scoring, and aversion to risk play a role in how you construct your roster. Of course, age has to be a factor and a concern, but it should not be the only number you account for. There are exceptions to every norm and every rule. Take Tom Brady for instance. The future Hall of Famer was a unicorn. Who says Henry cannot be one also?

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Jeff Smith

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Jeff is a “jack of all trades” type fantasy player. He specializes in dynasty but also dabbles in redraft and DFS. Baseball and golf are other fantasy formats he partakes in regularly. Family, sports and IT are his biggest passions.

He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.