2022 Dynasty Capsule: Washington Commanders

Fresh off a 2020 playoff appearance, the Washington Football Team Commanders took a step back on both sides of the ball. To that point, they concluded the 2021 season with a worse winning percentage (the same number of wins as the previous year, but one additional loss), including scoring fewer points per game while allowing almost five additional points more per contest. Ultimately these efforts were not enough for the Commanders to reach the playoffs, but too much to see them obtain a blue-chip draft selection (they will choose at number 11 overall).

As it turned out, this was a fine metaphor for the team’s overall 2021 fantasy production. They featured a couple of players who would be considered fantasy-relevant, but no one who truly transcended above the masses, and perhaps no one who instilled confidence in their owners. All told it was largely a season to forget, but that doesn’t mean there’s no reason for optimism moving forward.

Let’s take a look at the players who, ahem, command discussion.

Quarterback

*60 rushes for 313 yards and one touchdown

Taylor Heinicke (ADP = N/A)

In what should be considered a harbinger of the subsequent narratives contained herein, neither the Commanders’ starting quarterback nor any of the team’s backups managed to crack the January 2022 ADP! And given Heinicke’s statistics, as well as the team’s current paradigm under center, it’s easy to side with the fantasy masses.

In truth, it’s hard to blame the young signal-caller terribly much. He was signed to be the backup behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, and performed admirably enough when thrust into action almost immediately in week one. Unfortunately, Heinicke’s best simply wasn’t good enough either for the team’s overall record, or for the skill position players forced to rely on him for fantasy production.

While missing just one game, both Heinicke’s completions and yards were 19th best in the league, with his yards per attempt 21st and his passing scores t-17th. His average output of 20 completions for 214 yards and 1.25 touchdowns only generated 48.9 weekly PPR points, effectively hamstringing the potential of the offense’s fantasy production. Heinicke also tossed 15 interceptions, took 38 sacks and fumbled seven times, though he managed to not lose any of them.

Heinicke will be 29 before the 2022 season begins, meaning that despite his relative inexperience this is not as if we’re watching a young quarterback “figure it out.” He was undrafted for a reason, and the history of successful UDFA quarterbacks is nearly non-existent. The Commanders would be best served moving forward with Heinicke in a backup role just as they planned for 2021 – if he enters 2022 as a starter, downgrade the offense accordingly. He’s only worth rostering in deeper superflex leagues, and even then the hope is he won’t see your starting lineup.

Kyle Allen (ADP = N/A)

An UDFA of Ron Rivera’s Panthers in 2018, Allen was shipped to Washington to reunite with Rivera in 2020, ostensibly to add competition to the quarterback room lacking any surefire star power. While he performed admirably when called upon, both with the Panthers and Washington, his ceiling is capped as a signal-caller with middling arm talent and skill. Similar to Heinicke, the hope is that if he’s re-signed in 2022, it’ll be as a backup. He doesn’t belong on dynasty rosters.

Garrett Gilbert (ADP = N/A)

A sixth round pick back in 2014, Gilbert has amazingly already been rostered by a quarter of the league’s 32 franchises! As you can perhaps surmise, this speaks well to the urgency teams have felt to keep him around. Though he performed well enough in his lone spot start in 2021, there’s no reason to keep him on your bench.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (ADP = N/A)

The last quarterback chronicled here is perhaps the most fantasy relevant of the bunch. Despite recently turning 39 in November, it’s fair to reason ‘Fitzmagic’ was actually playing the best ball of his career in his late 30s. To that point, in a 2018-2020 stretch where he saw action in 32 games, the grizzled veteran completed nearly 65% of his passes at 7.8 YPA, with 50 touchdowns to 33 interceptions and a small handful of rushing yards and scores to boot.

Fitz was hurt and lost for the year after just six pass attempts in 2021, and as such we fans were robbed of a season’s worth of YOLO balls down the field to receiver Terry McLaurin, helping finally establish him as an alpha fantasy pass-catcher. Not currently under contract, it’s unknown if Fitzpatrick even plans to continue his career at this point, or if the Commanders would be interested in bringing him back. But if he wants to return and continue what can only be described as one of the NFL’s oddest career arcs, there’s no doubt he’ll bring every bit of his “shirtless in freezing Buffalo temperatures” energy with him.

He makes for a solid bench stash in deeper superflex leagues.

Running Back

Antonio Gibson (ADP = 28.5, RB13)

In his second year in the league, Gibson saw an expanded role en route to a finish as the overall PPR RB8. However, while there were undoubtedly many positives to glean from his sophomore season, it also wasn’t the smashing success it appears to be just looking at final counting stats.

On the positive side of the ledger, Gibson sequestered an additional 88 carries from his rookie season, yielding 242 more yards and a 1,000-yard season. This included six of his final eight games yielding at least 19 touches, as the team appeared to commit to him as its primary ball carrier. He also increased his output in the receiving game, with six more receptions for 47 additional yards. Finally, he corralled the first three receiving scores of his career.

Unfortunately, the extra usage in the rushing game led to decreased efficiency, as his YPC average dropped from 4.7 to 4.0. In fact, prior to a week 18 outburst against a Giants team that had long since quit on the season, Gibson was stuck at 3.75 YPC and at that point was actually below 900 yards on the season. While the extra receiving usage was nice, it came in two additional games as compared to his rookie season, and clearly didn’t match the pre-season narrative that he’d see an expanded utilization in the passing game. Finally, he had seven fumbles on the year, losing four that occasionally saw him relegated to the bench for long stretches of time.

To his final ranking itself, running back was an odd position this year. RB8 is a strong finish for sure, but he was scoring around three-four PPR points per game fewer than the top five-six PPR ball carriers, and scored fewer on a per-game basis than many of the next ten running backs below him. Gibson just happened to play in more games than many of his compatriots, even though he was often playing hurt and nowhere near 100% with hip and toe injuries bothering him throughout the season.

Regardless, Gibson continued to function as “the guy” in the backfield, and possesses enough dual threat ability to keep him relevant in a PPR setting. He’ll be just 24 years old before the 2022 season, and it’s fair to reason Washington has too many holes on its roster to consider selecting a ball carrier in early rounds. Gibson has shown enough in two years that a vault to a top-five running back is within the realm of possibility, but far from guaranteed. As such a dynasty ranking of the RB13 by ADP seems about right, and I’d be fairly agnostic for either buying or selling at that price.

JD McKissic (ADP = 178.3, RB58)

A PPR revelation since signing with Washington in 2020, McKissic has turned an impressive 163 targets (in 27 games) into 123 receptions for 986 yards and four scores, adding 133 rushes for an additional 577 yards and three more touchdowns. With that said, prior to a late-season concussion, McKissic’s 2021 pace was somewhat slowed as compared to 2020, as he was averaging one fewer carry and two fewer targets on a per game basis. He did score the ball at a higher clip with four touchdowns, and amazingly despite the injury was actually the second-leading receiver on the team.

McKissic’s drawbacks are clear – he’ll be a 29-year old running back who hasn’t proven an ability to function in anything more than a change-of-pace role. He’s not currently not under contract and has truly only excelled during his two seasons with Washington. While his concussion will hopefully not linger into 2022, it is notable that he was shelved from December through the season’s conclusion following the brain injury.

Still, McKissic has aged gracefully, averaging 4.4 YPC and 9.2 YPR in 2021. With only 485 career opportunities (including playoffs), he should still have a reasonable amount of tread left on his tires. At the price of a low-end RB5, I’d be a buyer on the chance he re-signs with the Commanders and continues to function as a fly in the ointment for Gibson owners.

Jaret Patterson (ADP = 147.2, RB49)

A 2021 rookie UDFA, Patterson claimed the third string job behind Gibson and McKissic coming out of training camp. Despite his relatively small stature (5’8”, 195 pounds), Patterson had proven an ability to shoulder the load in college, with three straight 1,000-yard seasons and 53 total scores for the University of Buffalo. He didn’t receive that type of volume as a rookie, only managing to siphon away 79 opportunities, and wasn’t terribly efficient at just 3.9 YPC.

All told it was something of a “meh” season, which is why I find his status as a high-end RB5 per the ADP somewhat surprising. UDFA players have some of the worst job security in the league, and prior UDFAs who have shown more than Patterson were replaced quickly upon selection of players with better draft capital. I’ve noted above that the Commanders don’t seem likely to spend a premium draft pick on the position, but even someone in the fourth or fifth round could potentially push Patterson down the team’s ball carrying hierarchy. Despite the age difference, I’d rather roll the dice with McKissic at cost, and would consider attempting to sell Patterson to a nervous Gibson owner as part of a larger deal.

Jonathan Williams and Wendell Smallwood (ADP = N/A)

The missed time by Gibson and McKissic led Washington to promote both players to the active roster for a combined eight games in 2021. With five combined touches in the season prior, it was a minor upset that either/both saw the field at all. Neither member of this pair of 28-year old ball carriers is worth rostering moving forward.

Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin (ADP = 37.0, WR17)

Case Keenum. Dwayne Haskins. Colt McCoy. Alex Smith. Kyle Allen. Taylor Heinicke. Ryan Fitzpatrick for six attempts. Garrett Gilbert.

That’s the list of the luminaries from whom McLaurin has been forced to catch passes during his three seasons in the league. Apart from Heinicke, none were considered NFL starters on their respective teams in 2021, assuming they were even still in the league. More than half the list were former UDFAs, and the two blue chippers either busted hard (Haskins) or were well past their healthy prime (Smith).

Nevertheless, McLaurin persisted.

Since the 2019 season, the Ohio State product has accumulated 21.9% of the team’s targets, 21.2% of the receptions, 28.8% of the yards, and 29.1% of the touchdowns. Note that these figures are across all positions, not just the wide receiving corps. When it comes to the apples to apples comparison, McLaurin has supplied 222 receptions for 3,090 yards and 16 touchdowns since his entry into the league. During that time, the team’s “WR2” (by PPR fantasy points) has provided an aggregate line of just 90-1,083-8. In 2021 alone, the entirety of the rest of Washington’s wide receiving corps could supply only 112 more yards than McLaurin.

This has led to above average fantasy numbers, with yearly finishes as the PPR WR29, WR19, and WR26. Startable and usable stats, but those that are also prone to peaks and valleys depending on the week. Unfortunately, with the team’s quarterbacks only supplying a marginal 1.50 average PPR points per target on low volume, breaking into the upper echelon of pass catchers will more than likely require some help under center to reach his potential.

Given the relatively weak free agent and rookie classes, we don’t know if help will come in 2022. Older for a fourth year player (he will turn 27 in September), McLaurin unfortunately cannot afford many more years of abysmal signal-calling. However, this possibility is already baked into his cost as the WR17 by ADP, because if rankings were based solely on skill he’d be a surefire WR1.

Play under center can’t get any worse (worst case, 2022 will yield a Heinicke redux), and as such McLaurin remains a strong dynasty buy/hold. While a future as Allen Robinson 2.0 is always possible, a true breakout remains far more likely.

DeAndre Carter (ADP = N/A)

Add another to the list of UDFAs seeing significant action for Washington in 2021. Carter is a fine role player with speed to burn, but is undersized and has now seen action for four teams in four years. At 29 years old in April, Carter doesn’t deserve consideration on your fantasy roster, and Washington simply needs to do better at WR2.

Adam Humphries (ADP = N/A)

After signing a one-year contract in the off-season, the former UDFA (yup…) roughly met expectations as the slot receiver on a poor passing offense. Despite staying healthy for all 17 games after missing the bulk of the 2020 campaign, Humphries only accrued five or more targets six times, and only surpassed 50 yards once. The 29-year old (in June) had a couple of decent seasons in Tampa, but that brief bit of fantasy relevance appears to have come and gone. Washington needs to do better than the veteran free agent in 2022.

Cam Sims (ADP = N/A)

The former UDFA (I mean…) took a step back from a 2020 season where he caught 32 balls for 477 yards, effectively halving that in 2021 (although he did corral an additional score). Much like Humphries, he only had a single game above 50 yards, and more often than not was held to a weekly one-two targets. Sims is a free agent for 2022, and wouldn’t make for a bad depth piece given his familiarity with the offense. But while he offers size missing from the rest of the team’s receivers (6’5”, 220 pounds), he’s not a player that either the team or fantasy owners should count on.

Dyami Brown (ADP = 156.3, WR68)

A player with an NFL draft status, huzzah! Washington’s third round pick in 2020 had a slow start to his career, not surpassing 100 total yards until after Christmas. Unfortunately, the vast majority of his Rotoworld blurbs had more to do with his injury status than his football skills.

Brown profiled as a field stretcher in college, averaging over 20.0 YPR in both his sophomore and junior seasons. He has decent size at 6’0” and 195 pounds, and should be able to solidify the starting position opposite McLaurin. Given his current ADP status as a WR6, I’d be more of a buyer than a seller. Just know this tree may not bear immediate fruit.

Dax Milne (ADP = N/A)

Milne, the team’s seventh round pick in 2021, was thrust into spot duty as a rookie where he turned 14 targets into a pedestrian 82 yards (5.9 YPT). Though he has reasonable size (6’0”, 190 pounds), he’s on the slow end (4.54s 40-yard dash) and lacks explosion and catch radius. A best-case would be Milne supplanting Humphries in the slot, though a status as the team’s WR4/5 behind McLaurin, Brown and Curtis Samuel seems more likely.

Curtis Samuel (ADP = 144.5, WR64)

Aha, finally another highly drafted player, albeit one removed from his first NFL contract (though he’s still only 26 come August). Unfortunately, Samuel was quite possibly the most disappointing free agent acquisition in all of 2021, earning just over $350k for every yard gained. On and off (okay, more “on”) the injury list, Washington’s prized pickup was only able to partake in a paltry five games in his sentinel season in the nation’s capital.

With that said, Samuel is still under contract for another two seasons (salary cap tomfoolery pending). He’s also not terribly far removed from a 2020 season in which he gained over 1,000 total yards as a dual-threat who was dangerous with the ball in his hands, whether it originated from a pass or a handoff. Currently penciled in as the team’s WR2 for 2022, I’d more than happily be a buyer at the price of a WR6.

Tight End

Ricky Seals-Jones (ADP = N/A)

Color me somewhat confused that Seals-Jones wasn’t selected even once in six mock drafts comprising 240 picks apiece. Color me even more confused when said drafts included such tight end stalwarts as Kylen Granson, Cameron Brate, Hunter Long, Geoff Swaim and Marcedes Lewis meriting at least one selection. And yes, just to be clear, I understand we’re talking about yet another UDFA here…

27 in March, Seals-Jones doesn’t have time on his side considering his relative lack of production to date. However, he’s been able to put forward reasonable enough box scores when called upon, despite not functioning on the best offenses (pre-Kyler Cardinals, Browns, and Washington). It would likely take a deep bench, but Seals-Jones is someone worth taking a flier on.

Logan Thomas (ADP = 145.7, TE17)

One year after compiling his was to a 72-670-6 line in 2020, Thomas took a step back in an injury-riddled 2021 season. While it isn’t inherently reasonable to extrapolate what amounts to one-third of a season out for a full year, Thomas was on pace to fall off dramatically in targets, receptions and yards, though it’s notable he discovered a nose for the end zone with three scores on just 25 looks. Regardless, it was a year of “what could have been?” as Washington was sorely lacking a secondary threat behind McLaurin.

Thomas is now on the wrong side of 30, and only has one season of fantasy goodness to his credit. However, he was signed to a three-year, $24 million contract prior to the 2021 season, so the team has a decent chunk of change invested in him. With desperately little in the way of pass-catching prowess, and a number of holes to fill, I’d happily roll with Thomas as a back-end TE1 come 2022, especially when he’s priced as a TE2 in the 13th round of startup drafts.

John Bates (ADP = N/A)

No, you weren’t ever going to start Bates in 2021, and more than likely you didn’t even draft him. However, Washington’s fifth round selection last season acquitted himself well on a poor passing offense as the team’s TE3. Older entering the league (23 years old as a rookie), as well as smallish, slow, lacking explosion and with poor arm length and hand size measureables, Bates doesn’t fit the profile of a future contributor. However intangibles are intangibles, and Bates undoubtedly outperformed rookie season expectations.

I’m not rostering him anywhere, and truthfully am not shining a spotlight on him entering 2022. But at the minimum he warrants occasionally shining a flashlight on (the kind powered by two triple-A batteries, not a hand-held floodlight), though perhaps only in TE-premium leagues.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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