2022 Dynasty Capsule: Buffalo Bills

Every year, we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the prior NFL season. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we will not use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you will see below.

Buckle up dynasty fans, because you are about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”

The Buffalo Bills had an incredible run in 2021 that ended heartbreakingly. Josh Allen and the offense stood toe to toe with the defending AFC champions before ultimately being eliminated in overtime of the divisional round. Changes are sure to come to that offense. Brian Daboll has left to be the head coach of the New York Giants and former quarterbacks coach Ken Dorsey is now the offensive coordinator.

In the meantime, much like every other organization, you can expect a major roster shakeup. We will take a look at the roster as it sits today and briefly discuss every player. The depth chart data here was collected from Ourlads.

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen (ADP=42.67, QB2)

Allen finished as the number one overall player in fantasy football for the second consecutive year in 2021. The Wyoming grad has stepped his game up big time under the tutelage of Brian Daboll. Time will tell if it was the quarterback or the coach responsible for the development. Allen is going off the boards as the QB2 but you could argue that he should be the first quarterback taken.

Data Courtesy of DLF ADP Over Time App.

Based on the ADP over time data, we can see that the gap is narrowing between the young superstar quarterbacks and Allen may even surpass Patrick Mahomes now that 2021 is in the books. Daboll’s departure may change the offense some, but the Bills promoted quarterbacks coach Ken Dorsey to run the offense. Dorsey would be wise to use what worked best for the versatile quarterback.

Data Courtesy of DLF Percentage Fantasy Points App.

Kyler Murray is always thought of as a great runner, but we can see that Allen does just as well with his legs as Murray, scoring 25.96% of his points on the ground. Murray checks in at 22.61% and Mahomes is way behind at 12.79%. That rushing ability provides a solid floor and leads to more consistency on a week-to-week basis. Needless to say, Allen is a huge asset to hold in dynasty formats, and do not be afraid to draft him over Mahomes in startups.

Mitchell Trubisky (ADP=N/A)

Trubisky signed a one-year deal with the Bills to back up Allen. The former Chicago Bears signal-caller saw very little action. There could still be some value here as there are rumors that the former first-round pick could be following Daboll to New York. Whether Trubisky gets a chance to start there or not would likely depend on how Daniel Jones looks in camp and on what the coaching regime thinks of his abilities. While he is not currently being drafted, you could certainly do worse at the tail end of drafts, especially in superflex leagues.

RUNNING BACK

Devin Singletary (ADP=111.33, RB35)

It was a tale of three seasons for Singletary in 2021. The third-year pro began the season as the starter but quickly relinquished those duties to Zack Moss after week two. When the smoke finally settled, the Florida Atlantic grad finished as the RB20 in PPR formats. That is impressive given the fact that Singletary saw less than 50% of the snaps in eight games and was inactive in week 18 with the Bills having already solidified their playoff seeding.

Data Courtesy of DLF Weekly Snap Percentage App.

Matt Breida even saw some action mid-season, limiting upside. Currently being drafted as the RB35, Singletary screams value. Things could look even better in 2022 if Ken Dorsey decides to run the ball a little more than his predecessor.

Data Courtesy of DLF Coaching History App.

Over the past two seasons, Daboll and the Bills only rushed the ball about 40% of the time. Of 1,143 plays, only 461 were runs. This is right about league average but with a defense as good as theirs, they do not need to air it out to win games. A better running game may have prevented the Chiefs from wearing out the number one defense in the league in the divisional round game. Either way, Singletary is a value and someone you should look to acquire on the cheap if possible.

Zack Moss (ADP=169.50, RB56)

Moss supplanted Singletary after week two but soon fell out of favor with Buffalo and had a streak of games on the inactive lists after falling out of favor with the coaching staff. The result was an RB51 finish in PPR formats. The Utah grad is on the books until 2024 but has a very low cap number and will likely be kept around to back up Singletary again in 2022. His ADP is fine and makes for a nice end-of-the-bench stash in case the starter were to miss time.

Matt Breida (ADP=238.00, RB91)

Breida flashed for one week in 2021 and that was in week ten against the woeful New York Jets run defense. As was the case with Moss, the journeyman running back went back and forth between the active roster on game day and being inactive. Breida is 27 years old and will likely have a hard time finding a leading role anywhere in 2022. By the way, that 20.0-point performance against the Jets was his first double-digit PPR game since week nine of 2019. You can probably spend the roster spot on someone younger and with more upside.

Taiwan Jones (ADP=N/A)

Jones was merely a special teams player for the Buffalo Bills in 2021 and did not see one snap on offense. He is an unrestricted free agent and will be 34 years old when the 2022 season kicks off. There is nothing to see here. Let us move on.

Christian Wade (ADP=N/A)

Wade is a nice story. He quit rugby to give the NFL a try. He has been with the Bills since 2019 but has never been active on game day and will be 31 come this season. Clearly, there is no value here.

WIDE RECEIVER

Stefon Diggs (ADP=25.33, WR13)

There has to be just a bit of concern about Diggs after a sub-par 2021 playoffs. Across two games, the former Minnesota Vikings wideout had just six catches for 67 yards and no touchdowns on 10 targets. Meanwhile, players like Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis went bonkers in those contests. Diggs has been consistent year over year as evidenced by the chart.

Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Player Data App.

The number of question marks surrounding Diggs may make him a sell. He will turn 29 during the 2021 season, Daboll has moved on, and Davis and Knox are emerging. The prudent move may be to wait and see if Diggs puts together a couple of solid games early and then flip him for a younger wideout and a 2023 first if possible.

Gabriel Davis (ADP=103.00, WR50)

Davis is a prime example of the power a big game in the postseason can have on a player’s value. Think Derrick Henry from a few years back. Davis has been a red-zone machine and made the most of his limited opportunities across his first two seasons in the NFL. The youngster is right there with the starters on the Bills in terms of points per opportunity.

Data Courtesy of DLF Yearly Player Data App.

Emmanuel Sanders is 34 years old and is also a free agent. Cole Beasley is 33 and Buffalo can get out of the last year on his contract with a very small hit to the salary cap if they so choose. This could open up a ton of playing time for Davis. Of course, with increased playing time, there will be more chances to produce. At an ADP of 103.00, this is a chance worth taking. Let the hype train pull into the station before you try to buy this off-season. Patience is a must here.

Cole Beasley (ADP=169.67, WR71)

We just mentioned that Beasley will be 33 years old when the 2022 season kicks off. The Bills can cut him and incur a $1.5 million cap hit while saving $6.1 million against the cap. The veteran is a favorite of quarterback Allen, as evidenced by the 100-plus targets seen over the past three seasons in Buffalo. However, is an aging slot receiver worth $7.6 million? That is a question the front office will have to decide. Beasley has been a steady contributor throughout his time in the NFL but has never scored more than six touchdowns in a single season. You would be better served to take a youngster such as Braxton Berrios or even KJ Osborn in this range.

Isaiah McKenzie (ADP=207.50, WR90)

McKenzie made some noise in week 16 against the New England Patriots, catching 11 of 12 balls for 125 yards and a touchdown. The former Denver Broncos wideout only caught eight passes across his other 14 games. There could be a bit of a climb up the depth chart if Buffalo moves on from Beasley and Sanders in 2022, but his role comes primarily on special teams. We do not mind the flyer here as it could pay off if there is a vault up to the team’s WR3.

Emmanuel Sanders (ADP=N/A)

As mentioned earlier, Sanders will be a free agent in 2022. The journeyman will be 35 soon and may consider retirement. Sanders has had a successful NFL career but saw his fewest number of receptions since his early days with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The SMU grad has been in the league for 12 seasons and compiled over 700 receptions for 9,245 yards and 51 touchdowns in the regular season. Not too shabby. It was a nice run, but for fantasy purposes, Sanders is essentially done.

Jake Kumerow (ADP=N/A)

Another free agent in 2022, Kumerow saw a majority of his action with the special teams unit in 2021. The former Green Bay Packers wideout caught just two passes on six targets for 28 yards. There is no reason to use a roster spot on him.

Marquez Stevenson (ADP=N/A)

Stevenson was a sixth-round pick by the Bills out of Houston and has the nickname “speedy.” He was active for only five games and played just six offensive snaps in those contests. Keep an eye on the off-season movements to see if the rookie climbs the depth chart at all but for now, he can be left on the waiver wire.

Isaiah Hodgins (ADP=N/A)

Hodgins is a practice squad player who was active for only one game in 2021. In that contest, the sixth-rounder from Oregon State played just four snaps. For dynasty purposes, he belongs on the waiver wire with Kumerow and Stevenson.

Tanner Gentry (ADP=N/A)

Gentry is another player on a futures contract for the Buffalo Bills. The 27-year-old has not played in an NFL game since 2017 and there are no signs of that changing anytime soon. The former Chicago Bears wideout has only played in four games and has just three catches for 35 yards on six targets.

TIGHT END

Dawson Knox (ADP=101.83, TE11)

Knox finished right where he is currently being drafted, as the TE11. However, the young tight end was eighth among TEs in terms of points per game with 11.6. The Ole Miss grad only played in 14 games yet he still saw 80 targets, good for third-most on the roster.

Data Courtesy of DLF Change in Player Value App.

Knox has seen the third-best increase in value at the position over the past 12 months, ranking right up there with Mark Andrews and Dalton Schultz. The athleticism and potential are there and with a quarterback like Josh Allen leading the offense, the sky is the limit. Do not be afraid to target the 25-year-old in startup drafts and throw out some offers for him as well, maybe a late second-round pick or even an early third.

Tommy Sweeney (ADP=N/A)

Sweeney will be entering his third season in the NFL in 2022. Over his first two seasons in the NFL, the Boston College big man has just 17 catches for 158 yards and one touchdown. Sweeney only played more than 34% of the snaps in two games in 2021 and both were games that Knox missed due to injury. In those two games, the tight end only managed 40 yards on five catches. There is no reason to roster Sweeney, even with an injury to the starter.

Quintin Morris (ADP=N/A)

Morris is signed to a futures contract for the Bills. He was an undrafted free agent out of Bowling Green but did not make it to the active roster in 2021. With Buffalo being thin at the position, Morris may get a chance in 2022 or the Bills could decide to address the need via the NFL draft or free agency.